Wow. Just wow. UCLA (137) and Washington State (119) decided to play basketball with the previously winless Bruins topping the previously unbeaten Cougars 67-63 – in regulation. UCLA gave up 28 in the second quarter to be down 35-17 at the half, but put up 50 in the second half (29 in the 4th quarter). The previous co-favorites for the Pac-12 North gave up 6 turnovers and allowed both a kickoff and punt return for a TD. Southern Cal (79) upended Utah (54) Friday night 30-23. More on the Pac-12’s meager chances at making the playoffs this year in a moment. Southern Methodist (25) bested TCU (71) in another slugfest 41-18. App State (19) knocked off North Carolina (93) 34-31. 2-loss Pittsburgh (89) edged Central Florida (102) and most likely ended any chance for Knights to make it. These unexpected results are not only what make college football great, am I right?, but also wreak havoc on the GCR. This early, SOS swings wildly based on a new team entering the mix as well as what previous opponents have done. Things will even out in the next few weeks.
That said, it is not too early to make some cuts. Out of the 65 Power 5 schools, the data shows it’s down to 29 who have a chance outside of a series of miracles. In the 65 Group of 5 teams, there are 9 undefeated teams who can keeps their hopes up. Here are the rules for inclusion/exclusion: if a Power 5 team is undefeated – still in (Gof5 have hope – eternal hope). If a 1-loss Power 5 team has that loss to either a Group of 5 team or a team currently outside of the GCR 50, they are out (clearly some teams could crawl back in if a bad loss turns out not to be bad as the season progresses), – otherwise they are in. All Group of 5 teams with any losses are out. All Power 5 teams with 2 or more losses are out. Also, if you have lost to a team in your division, this does not apply to the Big 12, then you are out – the logic is that team would have to lose twice for you to win it thus diminishing the value of that division. Here is the conference by conference analysis – note: the future schedule rank is only listed for those who are still in contention.
Starting with the ACC there are 3 teams that have not yet tasted defeat and 4 others with only 1 loss. That means 7 are already eliminated with the multi-loss rule. 2 others are eliminated due to the bad loss rules. Clemson and Virginia both face manageable schedules heading out. Wake Forest has a much tougher road. NC State and Duke are in do or die mode and both have similar fSOS. There have only been 7 conference games so far.
| Team | Status | Loss | fSOS |
| Clemson (9) | In | – | 102 |
| Wake Forest (20) | In | – | 51 |
| Virginia (30) | In | – | 120 |
| Duke (14) | In | Alabama (5) | 84 |
| NC State (41) | In | West Virginia (45) | 79 |
| Virginia Tech (57) | Out | Boston College (116) | |
| Boston College (116) | Out | Kansas (72) |
The Big 12 has only had 2 conference games so a lot is still up in the air. Kansas State and Oklahoma are both in the top 3 and Baylor is also without a loss. 6 additional teams have just 1 loss so that leaves just Kansas as automatically out with multiple losses (but they did help eliminate Boston College so there’s that). Right now the GCR shows strong fSOS for most of the teams because this conference generally plays its non-conference games first and many of the teams don’t really challenge themselves a lot – giving them a 26-8 start to the season. Since almost all of the rest of the games are conference games, it looks like a gauntlet – that will take care of itself as the season progresses.
| Team | Status | Loss | fSOS |
| Kansas State (1) | In | – | 28 |
| Oklahoma (31) | In | – | 31 |
| Baylor (25) | In | – | 25 |
| Texas Tech (15) | In | Arizona (11) | 15 |
| Texas (38) | In | LSU (15) | 15 |
| Oklahoma State (56) | In | Texas (38) | 15 |
| Iowa State (91) | In | Iowa (7) | 14 |
| West Virginia (45) | Out | Missouri (95) | |
| TCU (71) | Out | SMU (25) |
The Big 10 has the most teams still in even though a reasonable 5 conference games have already been played. 5 teams are still undefeated and 5 more have just 1 loss. Only 4 are multi-loss rule breakers. The fSOS in this conference is a good deal stronger than the ACC, but lower than the Big 12. It looks like a fun year in the Big 10.
| Team | Status | Loss | fSOS |
| Ohio State (2) | In | – | 35 |
| Penn State (4) | In | – | 30 |
| Iowa (7) | In | – | 47 |
| Wisconsin (12) | In | – | 40 |
| Minnesota (21) | In | – | 38 |
| Michigan (23) | In | Wisconsin (12) | 24 |
| Indiana (66) | In | Ohio State (2) | 14 |
| West Virginia (45) | in | Missouri (95) | 61 |
| Michigan State (73) | In | Arizona State (42) | 19 |
| Maryland (27) | Out | Temple (62) | |
| Nebraska (46) | Out | Colorado (81) |
The Pac 12 is almost already out. The 6 conference games as well as 2 losses to Group of 5 teams has already decimated (actually much more than decimated) the conference chances already…in week 4! Only mighty California remains undefeated. 8 teams have 1 loss (and 6 of them have a bad loss). 3 teams have at least 2. The loss in division rule knocked out Washington who stumbled against the Bears 20-19. They could sneak back in but based on California’s relatively weak fSOS, they may not get another chance. This conference already looks like the October 5 game of Bears at Ducks will decide the North and nobody in the South seems to really want to stand out.
| Team | Status | Loss | fSOS |
| California (22) | In | – | 109 |
| Oregon (36) | In | Auburn (16) | 43 |
| Arizona (11) | Out | Hawaii (77) | |
| Washington (24) | Out | California (22) | |
| Arizona State (42) | Out | Colorado (81) | |
| Utah (54) | Out | Southern Cal (79) | |
| Southern Cal (79) | Out | BYU (123) | |
| Colorado (81) | Out | Air Force (8) | |
| Washington State (119) | Out | UCLA (137) | |
| Maryland (27) | Out | Temple (62) |
The SEC shares with the Big 10 the most perfect teams with 5. But there are only 2 1-loss teams meaning 7 are out with the multiple loss rule (tied with the ACC for the most). With 9 conference games already they have the lead there. The fSOS is pretty competitive except for Alabama and Georgia who, on average, have a easier road.
| Team | Status | Loss | fSOS |
| Alabama (5) | In | – | 90 |
| Florida (10) | In | – | 63 |
| LSU (15) | In | – | 28 |
| Auburn (16) | In | – | 20 |
| Georgia | In | – | 113 |
| Mississippi State (34) | In | Kansas State (1) | 53 |
| Missouri (95) | Out | Wyoming (74) |
Notre Dame lost to Georgia by 6 (line was UGA -14) and are still in it. They cannot stumble again and face a significant fSOS ranked 45th.
| Team | Status | Loss | fSOS |
| Notre Dame (40) | In | Georgia (31) | 45 |
I mentioned the Group of 5 x wins – 0 losses group. SMU and Boise State are both 4-0 and have wins over Power 5 schools with good football reputations (not that that should mean anything). Memphis is ranked 6th this week and are 3-0 along with Alabama-Birmingham and App State. Navy is wasting off weeks and are just 2-0. UAB looks to have the easiest path to perfection in the Conference USA but that would honestly hurt them for the playoff. SMU and Memphis have the fSOS necessary that, barring a loss, could get them in the conversation.
| Team | Status | Record | fSOS |
| SMU (25) | Hopeful | 4-0 | 42 |
| Boise State (26) | Hopeful | 4-0 | 139 |
| Memphis (6) | Hopeful | 3-0 | 52 |
| App State (19) | Hopeful | 3-0 | 154 |
| UAB (51) | Hopeful | 3-0 | 229 |
| Navy (132) | Hopeful | 2-0 | 64 |
As always on Sunday night, I’ll end the analysis with this. After 4 weeks, there are 17 undefeated and 1 winless (Vanderbilt) Power 5 schools. The Group of 5 is 6-4 and FCS is technically 8-21, but the 1-game-played-so-far Ivy League was 6-2 so let’s go with 2-19. The two are both really good teams: North Dakota State (17) and Villanova (35) are both 4-0.
That’s it: tune in Tuesday for random blog post, Thursday for next week’s what to watch analysis and then again on Sunday for the latest ranking and analysis. Please comment/complain/discuss/challenge/question and of course share with fellow football friends. If you haven’t already, subscribe and get these updates in your inbox.
thanks, r
