Greetings oh great and wonderful college football fans. As we move into another weekend we are reminded that September is almost over – 1/3 of the season (or thereabouts). First, I expect a lot of fluctuation in the GCR this week of primarily conference games but things should start being more…incremental. Of course, I could be wrong because upsets happen every week. I have no idea if any of these will be, but these are interesting games throughout the weekend.
First is the one going on right now. Navy (132) at 2-0 is at 3-0 Memphis (6). Just into the 4th Memphis is winning 28-23. Memphis is favored by 10.5 in Vegas and I have them winning 62%. There are three teams in the American West (SMU – 25 is the other) fighting for supremacy. The Big 12 has 3 perfects, but the only other divisions with 3 are the Big 10 North and the SEC West. Pretty good company. After today there will only be 2 (SMU is a 64% favorite at South Florida).
Friday the most interesting game is Duke (14) at Virginia Tech (57). Both are 2-1 and Vegas has the Hokies -2.5. VT has wins over Old Dominion (49) of the C-USA and Furman (164) of the SoCon with a loss to Boston College (116). Duke lost to Alabama (5) and beat North Carolina A&T (106) of the MEAC and Middle Tennessee State (192) of the C-USA. The GCR picks a near coin toss at Duke 50.9%. This one should be down to the wire.
The most intriguing noonish game is Kansas (72) at TCU (71). The Jayhawks are 2-2 while the Horned Frogs are 2-1. TCU just lost a home game to SMU (25) last week and lost to Kansas last year 27-26. Vegas has the line for TCU -16, but I’m predicting a much closer game with TCU at 53.6%.
The best mid-afternoon game to me is clearly Virginia (30) at Notre Dame (40). The Cavaliers are trying to move to 5-0 on the road against a team that had a tough game in Athens last week. The line is ND -12.5, but in the upset special of the week, UVA wins 55.9% to remain undefeated.
There are a lot of interesting matchups in the evening, but the one I’m calling out isn’t going to have an impact on any championships, but is going to tell us a lot about one team. The Stanford (208) Cardinal is a very uncharacteristic 1-3 and traveling to Oregon State (124) to play the 1-2 Beavers. It’s been a number of years since Oregon State made a lot of noise and beating Stanford, even a beakless one, will be a big boost for that program. Vegas thinks a Cardinal can best a Beaver by 4, but I think Oregon State has a bigger bite – 75% worth.
The late selection is from the Mountain West West Division (that just feels weird whenever I type it). Hawaii (77) will face off at Nevada (107). Both are 3-1 and tied for the best record with San Diego State who is idle. It’s a chance for both teams to make a statement. Vegas likes the Wolf Pack -2.5 and in a rare situation, I concur with Nevada at 57.2%
Obviously there are a lot of really good games. Here’s a new thing I’ve never done before (even when this was email): Send me your game of choice in the comments and I’ll give you the GCR probability of that game. The only caveat is I do not calculate FCS vs lower schools.
Enjoy the weekend, r
What’s your % for them Gaytah?
Jason, So Towson (60) is a good Colonial team 3-1 coming off of an OT loss to 4-0 Villanova (35). Florida (10) is the highest ranked SEC East team with an average score of 33-11. This one looks pretty clear with the Gators (or Gaytah) at 82.3%
I like that %….thanks!
whoa! posting from the future “September 27, 2019 at 12:02 pm” no wonder you are so good at picking winners. so who won, I mean will win, the Miss St. – Aub clash?
Ha Kevin, I guess the server for this blog is in the UK or the middle of the Atlantic or something. Aah a very important SEC West game. Mississippi State (75) whose only loss is to Kansas State (1) travels to the friendly confines of Auburn (16). The line is the Tigers or Eagles or War Machine or something by 11 and I think that is close – it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s a little more than a TD or so. Auburn 63.8%