The crazy month of October is gone (ok, almost) for college football and what craziness it was. There were upsets galore, many that have or will have an impact on the Playoff. I said almost because there are 2 game Halloween night: Georgia Southern (34) at App State (18) and West Virginia (64) at Baylor (5). Then we begin separation month. Tonight’s G’s Evaluation is going to be an analysis of who’s already bowling (FBS only since last week I hit the FCS Playoff group), who is eliminated and who is close. There are 78 positions available and 31 have already been claimed. Only 6 teams are eliminated, but much will fall into place in the next 2 weeks. That’s the teaser for tonight.
Before we get into this week’s rankings, there were 15 upsets last night. If you are new to the GCR, I count an upset if the Vegas favorite loses. I do not automatically consider an upset if the number 63 team beats the number 48 team at home. The higher ranked AP team, likewise, is not always the favorite, especially on the road. Vegas is a pretty good middle ground so I use that. There were 2 Playoff impacting upsets: Kansas State (14) taking Oklahoma (17) and now outranking them in the GCR, and Michigan (16) putting the hurt on Notre Dame (21). I didn’t have Georgia (22) as a Playoff team when they were upset by South Carolina (78) (I did have them winning by a pretty large margin) and I didn’t have Oklahoma there last week either (same scenario). Of course, I didn’t have Alabama (4) or Clemson (7) either. While those teams were beating the teams on their respective schedules they are not championship caliber schedules – at least not yet. Baylor (5) and Oklahoma still need to meet and possibly twice since every other team in the Big 12 has at least 2 conference losses, including Kansas State. Here are this week’s upsets:
| Favorite | Underdog | Line | Score |
| Army | San Jose St | 10.0 | 34-29 |
| Pittsburgh | Miami | 5.5 | 16-12 |
| Oklahoma | Kansas State | 23.5 | 48-41 |
| Ball State | Ohio | 2.5 | 34-21 |
| North Texas | Charlotte | 4.0 | 39-38 |
| Virginia | Louisville | 3.5 | 28-21 |
| Iowa State | Oklahoma State | 10.5 | 34-27 |
| Florida International | Middle Tennessee | 2.5 | 50-17 |
| Kent State | Miami (Ohio) | 2.5 | 23-16 |
| South Carolina | Tennessee | 4.5 | 41-21 |
| Texas Tech | Kansas | 6.0 | 37-34 |
| Missouri | Kentucky | 9.5 | 29-7 |
| Notre Dame | Michigan | 2.0 | 45-14 |
| Fresno State | Colorado State | 14.5 | 41-31 |
| Arizona State | UCLA | 3.0 | 42-32 |
There is a change in this week’s top 4. My friend Jason often talks about Beating the Bye – whenever Auburn has a bye, he sends me a text asking the GCR% for Auburn vs the Bye that week. While that’s funny, there is a deeper reality under it (although I’m sort of hoping he doesn’t read this post this week): when a team is on a bye, the impact of teams that are playing and that the bye team has played impact the ratings. Case in point, Florida (6) was #3 last week, but lost to the bye and fell 3 spots. Sometimes teams win and leapfrog others, but the Gators sunk in the Swamp. The upcoming game against Georgia will not only determine the SEC East (look for it in G’s Expectations on Wednesday this week), but set the stage for an SEC Championship against the winner of Alabama and LSU (2) the next week. All of that to say, the current top 4 are Ohio State (1), LSU, Penn State (3), and Alabama (4). Ohio State and Penn State play November 23 so one of them will probably fall out and LSU/Bama play November 16 so one of them will probably fall out. Baylor is #5 and will be in if they win out (which means beating Oklahoma twice), Oklahoma could be in if it beats Baylor twice. Florida at #6 could get in if they win out. Clemson (7) as defending champions and undefeated will be in if they remain so (and there schedule is not very….challenging). If Utah and Oregon win out and go into the Pac 12 championship as 1-loss teams, the winner could get in if, if, if. All of that in place, the Playoff teams as of now should be Ohio State, LSU, Penn State, and Alabama, but in reality are Ohio State, LSU, Clemson and Utah.
Here is this week’s complete rankings from Ohio State to Texas Southern (yes a new last place team). Enjoy, comment, question, challenge, subscribe and most importantly, share with your friends. Thanks, G
