Good morning oh great and wonderful college football fans. What a week of football – we started with the MAC playing Tuesday and Wednesday, then had good games on Thursday and Friday before the blockbuster games including 3 games between undefeated teams. Let’s start with those. In the Ivy League, Princeton (164) traveled to Dartmouth (62) with what could be the conference championship on the line. I know, you may be thinking, but it’s the Ivy League, come on. Maybe so, but remember the Ivies play without scholarships and they do not participate in the post season. It’s always a big deal to win your conference championship, but for them – that’s it – you get nothing for second place. The Big Green defeated the Tigers 27-10 and have a commanding lead. The other two had FBS Playoff impact. Earlier in the day, Penn State (7) charged into Minnesota (9) with the intent of staying undefeated to face off with Ohio State (2) later this month. However, the Gophers had a different idea and took the home win by the score of 31-26. It was a fun game to watch. Right after that game we had the marquee matchup of LSU (1) at Alabama (6). I was able to see most of that game during set up for my band’s show (check us out at Project Detour Band on Facebook). LSU looked ready to play and Alabama looked…well…human, in the first half but got it together after what I’m sure was a Saban-scolding. It was close and came down to the end, but the Geaux Tiger group won a barn burner 46-41. All 10 perfect teams played and all won (except in those three games) so there are now 5 FBS teams – Clemson (3), who deserves a special congrats for being the first 10-win team and the first to clinch their division, Baylor (5) who won in overtime against TCU (110), Ohio State who trounced Maryland (102), Minnesota and LSU. In the FBS there are but 2 – Dartmouth and North Dakota State (96) who also got their 10th win of the season and their Division I leading 32nd in a row.
On the flip side there were 5 zero and lots of losses teams. Rice (163) and Akron (254) were idle while New Mexico State (192) took their money from Mississippi (75) for a 41-3 drubbing, The other two will no longer be considered in this group because Eastern Illinois (249) beat Tennessee State (238) 49-38 and Presbyterian (244) took out Gardner Webb (227) 24-14. That means all FCS teams have one at least one game. Congratulations to all.
This week with all of those really great games was a bit difficult to predict compared to other teams. I’m not going to mention them all this week but there were 19 Vegas upsets meaning the Vegas favorite was team A, but team B won outright (not against the spread). Thanks to that, along with the understanding that a great majority of the games, the GCR and Vegas agree on the winner, it was not a stellar day for the GCR predictor…overall. Before we show my shame and disappointment in the predictive math as a whole, let’s look at the positive first: Of the 9 games (dropped Kentucky/Tennessee with Kentucky became the favorite) the GCR predicted as upsets, I was 5-4 straight up and 6-3 against the spread. I was wrong completely on Oregon State (46) over Washington (49), West Virginia (66) over Texas Tech (45), and Duke (59) over Notre Dame (17). I was wrong but beat the spread on Ball State (99) over Western Michigan (136). I picked the upset for Western Kentucky (85) over Arkansas (161), Minnesota (9) over Penn State (7), Colorado (94) over Stanford (95), App State (33) over South Carolina (72), and California (32) over Washington State (35). Here are the overall numbers: first this week’s debacle and overall.
| Decile | FBS | FCS | Total | Expected Wins |
| 50.0-59.9% | 9-10 (.474) | 11-11 (.500) | 20-21 (.488) | 22.55 |
| 60.0-69.9% | 10-8 (.556) | 10-7 (.588) | 20-15 (.571) | 22.75 |
| 70.0-79.9% | 3-1 (.750) | 8-3 (.727) | 11-4 (.733) | 11.25 |
| 80.0-89.9% | 4-0 (1.000) | 5-0 (1.000) | 9-0 (1.000) | 7.65 |
| 90.0%+ | 3-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 4-0 (1.000) | 3.80 |
| Total | 29-19 (.604) | 35-21 (.625) | 64-40 (.615) | 68.00 |
| Decile | FBS | FCS | Total | Expected Wins |
| 50.0-59.9% | 44-42 (.512) | 57-47 (.548) | 101-89 (.532) | 104.5 |
| 60.0-69.9% | 50-23 (.685) | 53-31 (.631) | 103-54 (.656) | 102.1 |
| 70.0-79.9% | 36-9 (.800) | 36-18 (.667) | 72-27 (.727) | 74.3 |
| 80.0-89.9% | 26-3 (.897) | 18-4 (.818) | 44-7 (.863) | 43.4 |
| 90.0%+ | 12-1 (.923) | 16-1 (.941) | 28-2 (.933) | 28.5 |
| Total | 168-78 (.683) | 180-101 (.641) | 348-179 (.660) | 352.7 |
And now, the moment we’ve all been waiting for: who is in the top 4? I must have been asked that 10 times last night. In the GCR, LSU (1) jumped over Ohio State (2) primarily on a SOS basis. LSU has played the 23rd most difficult schedule and the Buckeyes are a respectable 59th. It is worth noting that Ohio State’s schedule is much more difficult for the rest of the season, so the position could change even if both win out. Clemson is now the number 3 team and the 4th place team may be a bit of a shocker – 2-loss (both to top 10 teams on the road) Auburn. The Tigers have played the 2nd most difficult schedule (behind Louisville). They still have Georgia (10) and Alabama (6) to play so we’ll see if they stay in the elite. The somewhat ironic thing is I spent a good 5 minutes trying to convince a good friend (even though he did go to Auburn) that the War Tigers were not going to be in the Playoff. In my defense, no 2-loss team has even been in the top 4. Of course, the committee does not use the GCR (we really need to talk to these people) and there is a lot of football left. Baylor held on to 5th but still have to play Oklahoma (21) twice. The race is on and yes, we have more clarity, but it’s still fuzzy. I think the committee will put, in some order, Ohio State, LSU for sure. I think they will put Clemson in after a week in the doghouse (which I fully believe was a warning to them to beef up their out of conference schedule) and probably they will see Georgia as the best 1-loss team.
With that here is the full GCR from LSU to Texas Southern. Enjoy. Please comment, question, challenge, etc., but most importantly, please share with other so that we can grow the community. Thanks, G
