Greetings and I hope you have a safe holiday week coming. I have a lot to talk about today, but first want to apologize. I would have had this written a number of hours ago, but wanted to go through and edit future games (there are a lot of changes with make up games galore).
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After Liberty (25) and Indiana (28) lost close games to fall from the unbeaten, we are now down to 19. The number will go down, but as of this writing there are no new teams expected to play before the end of December except for Incarnate Word, an FCS team scheduled to play Arkansas St (84) on December 12. That means it is unlikely the 19 elite will grow. On a sidebar, all FBS teams have played at least one game (Utah (120) played their first last night) except for Old Dominion of Conference USA and independents New Mexico St and UConn. 17 FCS teams hit the gridiron at least once so far (18 when Incarnate Word plays) of the 127 in that league. Many of the FCS conferences are planning to play in the spring. What will that do to the 2020 GCR? I have no idea yet. End of sidebar. There are 19 perfect teams, 2 in the FCS and here is the current list:
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1-0: North Dakota St (62) and S Illinois (69)
2-0: Colorado (12) and Washington (16)
3-0: Southern Cal (7), Oregon (10), W Michigan (26), Buffalo (31), and Kent St (32)
4-0: Ohio St (6) and San Jose St (27)
5-0: Northwestern (4) and Nevada (24)
6-0: None
7-0: Alabama (2) and Marshall (15)
8-0: Notre Dame (1), Coastal Carolina (8), and Cincinnati (9)
9-0: BYU (11)
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This past week was one of upsets, close games, come from behinds, 100-yd pick sixes, missed FGs to win – in other words, a fun weekend to watch. Foreshadowing next week’s G’s Expectations a little bit, the GCR was less confident overall than it has been in recent weeks. After taking into consideration the 15(!) games postponed or cancelled due to Covid, the aggregate expected winning percentage of the 30 qualified games was just .666 or just under 20-10. After picking the winners more than 78% of the time this year, games didn’t go as expected. Still 18-12, it was a disappointing week. If any of you ever question why I don’t bet on games – there you go. Each year, I try to add something new – maybe I’ll add a money line for the year – see how it would be. Hmmm.
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As more conferences are getting additional games in and, as cream rises to the top, the GCR got a bit of an overhaul. Clemson (5) dropped out of the top 4 after an unexpected idle week, and is 3rd in the ACC [Notre Dame (1) and Miami FL (3)]. Alabama (2) couldn’t gain ground on top-ranked Notre Dame (idle) despite a 63-3 trouncing of Kentucky (74). The Big 10 put a team in the top 4 (Northwestern at that spot) and 2 in the top 6 (Ohio St). All of this got me thinking.
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Power 5 top 25 teams:
ACC: Notre Dame (1), Miami FL (3), Clemson (5), UNC (22), NC St (23) [note: could have 2 teams in the playoff for the first time ever]
Big 12: Oklahoma St (18), Iowa St (20), Oklahoma (21) [note: likely will not be in the playoffs this year]
Big Ten: Northwestern (4), Ohio St (6) [note: unless something changes, the champion gets in]
Pac-12: Southern Cal (7), Oregon (10), Colorado (12), Washington (16) [note: one of these teams will have a strong argument to be in]
SEC: Alabama (2), Florida (13), Texas A&M (14), Georgia (19) [note: wonder what would happen in Bama loses – could the SEC be left out?]
Group of 5 top 25 teams:
American: Cincinnati (9) [Cincinnati and Tulsa (30) are undefeated in the conference and will face each other for the championship – the Bearcats have an argument if they win out]
Conference USA: Marshall (15) [note: there are too many Gof5 teams that could make the New Year’s Six automatic bid ahead of the Thundering Herd]
Independents: BYU (11), Liberty (25) [note: the Liberty Cinderella bid struck midnight and BYU not only played a pretty weak schedule, but they have just one game left in December – they are probably on the outside looking in]
MAC: none – best team is W Michigan (26)
Mountain West: Nevada (24) [the Wolf Pack could be a spoiler, but I doubt it in a short season]
Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina (8), Louisiana (17) [note: Coastal beat the Ragin’ Cajuns head to head earlier and will have to beat them again to be remain in the running. I think the top Group of 5 spot is between the Chanticleers and Cincinnati).
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And with that here is the entire list – from Notre Dame to California (144). One note: I added a column in this week’s post on predicted record. The way the GCR calculates that is a team gets credit for a future win if the predictor formula is between 50.00000001 and 100. A win is a win is a win. Please let me know your thoughts and comments. And as always, the best compliment you can provide (if you like what you see on this blog) is to share it with others. Thank you for reading, G. I’ll shut up now and post the list:
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