G’s Evaluation or Is This the Last Preseason Episode?

Welcome back, oh great and patient college football fans to our 499th episode on this platform. I suppose many of you, like us, see the days of August go by so incredibly slowly as our anticipation grows towards the initial kickoff. Just three more sleeps before the Dublin Ireland game kicks off (noon Eastern on Saturday).

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Over the last few months, we’ve taken a look at all 25 FBS and FCS conferences from least challenged (Ivy) to most (Big Ten). If you missed an episode, want to re-read one, or check out our history, you can find all of them online, for free and ad free, at our website bit.ly//2019GCR. If you’d like to subscribe, just input your email address and every post will come to you. We never share or sell that data. You can also find us on Facebook at Gettys Computer Ranking – College Football and now on LinkedIn at G Robert Gettys.

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After finishing up the conference-by-conference episodes, I was finalizing the necessary pre-season work within the GCR and discovered that we have another new team in the FCS. A late entry similar to one that happened a couple of seasons ago, the Northeast Conference added the New Haven Chargers to play a slightly shortened season this year, with full assimilation next season. At 8-3 last season, they made the Division II playoffs, losing in the first game. Welcome the Division I, New Haven, located in West Haven, CT.

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JoJo and I were looking for an episode for today and landed on a summary, of sorts. I don’t expect the readers to dig into the rankings the way I do (mainly because I assume the readers have a life of some sort outside of the GCR), so I put together a few tables to help transition to the new season. First up, is three Top 25s from last season. The first column is the overall GCR Top 25 at the end of last season. The second column is the Top 25 just for the Group of 5 (American, Conference-USA, FBS Independents not named Notre Dame, the MAC, Mountain West, Pac-(1)2, and Sun Belt), and the final column is the Top 25 FCS teams last year. As a reminder, the GCR beta-tested a new and improved mathematical construct for the rankings and last year was the final year of the old method.

2024 Final GCR RankOverallGroup of 5 (overall rank)FCS (overall rank)
1Ohio StBoise St (13)Montana St (98)
2Notre DameArmy (16)Jackson St (122)
3OregonMemphis (25)South Dakota St (127)
4TexasUNLV (29)South Dakota (132)
5IndianaNavy (30)North Dakota St (133)
6Penn StMarshall (46)Mercer (137)
7GeorgiaOhio (48)Incarnate Word (139)
8BYUTulane (52)Delaware (140)
9SMUSam Houston (61)Richmond (143)
10TennesseeLouisiana (66)UC Davis (144)
11Arizona StJames Madison (67)Harvard (145)
12Iowa StBuffalo (68)Butler (146)
13Boise StMiami OH (69)South Carolina St (147)
14IllinoisJacksonville St (77)Rhode Island (148)
15MississippiN Illinois (78)Dartmouth (149)
16ArmyUCONN (79)Idaho (150)
17Miami FLGa Southern (80)Illinois St (151)
18AlabamaTexas St (83)Duquesne (152)
19MichiganLiberty (85)San Diego (153)
20LouisvilleToledo (86)Lehigh (154)
21ClemsonEast Carolina (87)Drake (155)
22South CarolinaWashington St (88)SEMO (156)
23Kansas StArkansas St (89)NC Central (157)
24SyracuseW Kentucky (91)Tennessee St (158)
25MemphisColorado St (92)Tennessee Martin (159)

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The preseason work has been all about Strength of Schedule (SOS), however, so we thought it would be a good idea to sum up the most difficult schedules for 2025 estimated by the GCR. The table reads the same as the one above, but is focused on SOS.

PS SOS RankOverallGroup of 5FCS
1SyracuseAir ForceIdaho St
2WisconsinTexas StWeber St
3ArkansasOld DominionGardner Webb
4TCUSouth FloridaIndiana St
5RutgersOhioAlbany
6UCLATroyCharleston So
7KentuckyGeorgia StIdaho
8Texas A&MMiami OHN Colorado
9StanfordLouisianaW Illinois
10PurdueUABE Washington
11Mississippi StW MichiganMontana St
12NorthwesternE MichiganLong Island
13West VirginiaOregon StVillanova
14Southern CalSouthern MissPortland St
15IowaCharlotteLindenwood
16DukeDelawareN Arizona
17Boston CollegeWashington StNorthwestern St
18Air ForceUTSAHoly Cross
19LSUTulaneBethune
20Michigan StRiceE Kentucky
21Iowa StFIUGrambling St
22FloridaGa SouthernMaine
23Penn StNevadaMurray St
24South CarolinaNew MexicoColgate
25Texas StBall StSamford

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The 25 most difficult Group of 5 SOS teams are all in the top 78 overall (see table below). The FCS ranks are 137-161 consecutively, overall. Then we thought, what about the teams planning to skate this season? While we didn’t compile a Bottom 25, we did put together a simpler walk of shame Bottom 5. There are 68 Core 4 teams and 136 FBS (Core 4 and Group of 5 teams) as part of the 265 teams in Division I.

Bottom 5Core 4 (rank)Group of 5 (rank)FCS (rank)
EasiestWake Forest (127)Memphis (136)New Haven (265)
NextTennessee (118)Jacksonville St (135)Morehead St (264)
NextTexas Tech (117)San Jose St (134)Butler (263)
NextMissouri (116)Liberty (133)Jackson St (262)
NextVirginia Tech (113)Middle Tennessee (132)Prairie View (261)

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That’s it for today. Tune in Friday for a discussion of every game this Saturday that is Week 0. Thank you for reading and especially sharing with others. We need your help to grow. See you in a couple of days, G