G’s Evaluation or the Top 265 For Week 1

Welcome back, college football fans, from a 5-day, long-weekend, football extravaganza! Jojo and I were able to watch the Aflac Kickoff between Virginia Tech and South Carolina here in Atlanta and that place was rocking! I admit I watch more football than most, but I watched at least part of over 30 games this weekend, from the Thursday night clashes to the TCU/North Carolina blowout last night. Next week, the NFL is having their opening weekend and have the Thursday slot, so no college games until Friday night. But that’s another episode.

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JoJo and I are proud to debut the new and improved GCR algorithm, which still takes into consideration location of game (home/away/neutral), league (Core 4, Group of 5, FCS, other) of a team’s opponent, decision (win/loss), and point differential, but in a much simpler set of formulae. Both the Strength of Schedule (SOS) and Performance metrics have changed for the better. When I first built the original monstrosity, I made it more complex than necessary because a) I built it piecemeal – SOS then performance then added location, then added point differential, etc. and b) I abhor ties. The original formula was pseudo-designed and then tinkered with such that no two teams would have the exact Total Score, thus the exact ranking, as any other at any time in the season. The simplified version does allow for ties early in the season when teams had similar outcomes against similar opponents, but they will diversify as time progresses. The piecemeal approach came because of the evolution of the GCR. The first question was about SOS, but that means nothing if you don’t know how teams performed against their schedules, so the performance score had to be created, but separately from SOS. Then the location factor that existed already in the SOS had to have some sort of play in the Performance because the two metrics didn’t connect. Then I had to consider whether a 10-point win was more valuable than a 1-point win (arguments for both sides, but I landed on yes, but the first point is the most valuable, so diminishing returns applied). Then the final change was the ability for two teams to play each other twice in a season which was missing from the original matrix. Now, championships and bowl games could be included. Editing or debugging that thing was painful. Last season, I used those formulas for the last time and tested this new rebuilt model as the season progressed. A few minor tweaks and it’s finally ready to go! The new and improved GCR.

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One last thing before I list the 265 teams from top to bottom. The GCR has no bias, meaning there is no assumption that, for example, Ohio St is better than Utah St before any games are played. The AP preseason poll had 4 Top 10 teams lose their first games, and most of them will probably still be ranked. The GCR simply sees them as 0-1 with x SOS and y performance score. In the first few weeks, there will be massive fluctuation in the GCR because teams earn their ranks. The closest thing to a “bias” in the GCR is that, as a rule, Core 4 teams have more value than Group of 5 teams which have more value than FCS teams which have more value than Division II teams. Not by a lot, but any team playing a Core 4 team is rewarded a smidge while playing a cupcake is the opposite. Playing “up” increases the reward while playing “down” diminishes the reward. This assumption, while a gross injustice to the best Group of 5 and FCS teams, is mitigated by the simplified formulae where the performance score compensates.

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With no further ado, JoJo and I are proud to present the GCR Top 265 for Week 1! Thank you for reading and especially sharing with others, JoJo and G.

RankTeamConferenceWinsLossesPFPAScore
1ArizonaB121040.06.06.327
2VirginiaACC1048.07.06.015
3TCUB121048.014.05.974
4UtahB121043.010.05.967
5CaliforniaACC1034.015.05.821
6MississippiSEC1063.07.05.776
7IndianaB101027.014.05.717
8GeorgiaSEC1045.07.05.665
9TennesseeSEC1045.026.05.601
10Georgia TechACC1027.020.05.577
11KansasB122038.57.05.547
12Mississippi StSEC1034.017.05.514
13NebraskaB101020.017.05.497
14Miami FLACC1027.024.05.456
15AuburnSEC1038.024.05.401
16TulaneAAC1023.03.05.386
17South CarolinaSEC1024.011.05.375
18App StSUN1034.011.05.359
19Iowa StB122039.514.05.350
20Southern CalB101073.013.05.325
21Penn StB101046.011.05.293
22MarylandB101039.07.05.286
23PurdueB101031.00.05.283
24Texas StSUN1052.027.05.264
25MichiganB101034.017.05.226
25Michigan StB101023.06.05.226
25WashingtonB101038.021.05.226
25WisconsinB101017.00.05.226
29Texas A&MSEC1042.024.05.211
30Florida StACC1031.017.05.208
31MinnesotaB101023.010.05.201
32NC StACC1024.017.05.152
32Ohio StB101014.07.05.152
32UCFB121017.010.05.152
35RutgersB101034.031.05.110
36Wake ForestACC1010.09.05.085
37LSUSEC1017.010.05.056
38TempleAAC1042.010.04.893
39South FloridaAAC1034.07.04.850
40Fresno StMWC1124.522.54.812
41RiceAAC1014.012.04.723
42CincinnatiB120117.020.04.656
43Notre DameND0124.027.04.646
44Utah StMWC1028.016.04.630
45Old DominionSUN0114.027.04.603
46WyomingMWC1010.00.04.586
47Kansas StB121129.529.54.568
48Coastal CarSUN017.048.04.553
49KentuckySEC1024.016.04.536
50Georgia StSUN017.063.04.474
51TroySUN1038.020.04.469
52SyracuseACC0126.045.04.466
53MarshallSUN017.045.04.444
54ColoradoB120120.027.04.423
55Virginia TechACC0111.024.04.396
56NorthwesternB10013.023.04.367
57C MichiganMAC1016.014.04.355
58UNLVMWC2038.026.04.315
59HawaiiMWC1114.530.04.245
60Kennesaw StUSA019.010.04.225
61Oregon StPAC0115.034.04.179
62Southern MissSUN0117.034.04.179
63BaylorB120124.038.04.174
64OhioMAC0131.034.04.168
65ClemsonACC0110.017.04.158
66LouisianaSUN0112.014.04.142
67East CarolinaAAC0117.024.04.070
67Jacksonville StUSA0110.017.04.070
67TexasSEC017.014.04.070
70W KentuckyUSA2048.015.04.056
71UCLAB100110.043.04.033
72North CarolinaACC0114.048.04.026
73Washington StPAC1013.010.04.011
74UTSAAAC0124.042.03.969
75BuffaloMAC0110.023.03.956
76AlabamaSEC0117.031.03.941
77Colorado StMWC0121.038.03.898
77Miami OHMAC010.017.03.898
77New MexicoMWC0117.034.03.898
77W MichiganMAC016.023.03.898
81LouisvilleACC1051.017.03.813
82E MichiganMAC0127.052.03.811
83CharlotteAAC0111.034.03.805
84Ball StMAC010.031.03.766
85FAUAAC017.039.03.760
86NevadaMWC0111.046.03.743
87ToledoMAC0116.024.03.688
88South AlabamaSUN1038.021.03.677
89UTEPUSA0116.028.03.673
90Missouri StUSA0113.073.03.669
91Arkansas StSUN1042.024.03.661
92Arizona StB121038.019.03.646
93San Jose StMWC0114.016.03.645
94Boise StMWC017.034.03.636
95Oklahoma StB121027.07.03.632
96HoustonB121027.00.03.550
96IowaB101034.07.03.550
98DukeACC1045.017.03.540
99SMUACC1042.013.03.531
99ULMSUN1029.00.03.531
101James MadisonSUN1045.010.03.486
102West VirginiaB121045.03.03.447
103OregonB101059.013.03.431
104IllinoisB101052.03.03.421
105AkronMAC010.010.03.414
106BYUB121069.00.03.414
107PittsburghACC1061.09.03.412
108Boston CollegeACC1066.010.03.402
109Texas TechB121067.07.03.394
110N IllinoisMAC1019.017.03.302
111Austin PeayUAC1034.014.03.247
112UABAAC1052.042.03.222
113New Mexico StUSA1019.03.03.180
114DelawareUSA1035.017.03.168
115Bowling GreenMAC1026.07.03.163
116StanfordACC0120.023.03.154
117LibertyUSA1028.07.03.153
118Sam HoustonUSA0222.539.53.153
119LA TechUSA1024.00.03.140
120TulsaAAC1035.07.03.126
121OklahomaSEC1035.03.03.114
122FIUUSA1042.09.03.111
123MemphisAAC1045.010.03.107
124UMASSMAC0110.042.03.107
125Air ForceMWC1049.013.03.104
126San Diego StMWC1042.00.03.093
126VanderbiltSEC1045.03.03.093
128ArkansasSEC1052.07.03.089
128NavyAAC1052.07.03.089
130UCONNIND1059.013.03.088
131North TexasAAC1051.00.03.082
132FloridaSEC1055.00.03.078
132MissouriSEC1061.06.03.078
134Ga SouthernSUN0114.042.03.037
135Kent StMAC1021.017.03.031
136IdahoBig Sky0110.013.02.581
137ArmyAAC0127.030.02.552
138Middle TennesseeUSA0114.034.02.531
139Holy CrossPatriot0117.019.02.195
140New HampshireColonial1027.010.01.893
141Alabama StSWAC0142.052.01.834
142North DakotaMVFC0135.038.01.802
143Morgan StMEAC0121.038.01.802
144SEMOBSO/OVC0124.042.01.765
145N ArizonaBig Sky0119.038.01.730
146MerrimackFCSIND0117.021.01.719
147WagnerNortheast017.046.01.705
148Tennessee MartinBSO/OVC017.027.01.696
149BryantColonial013.019.01.645
150Delaware StMEAC0117.035.01.594
151NichollsSouthland1120.022.01.591
152E KentuckyUAC0117.051.01.584
153LafayettePatriot017.026.01.570
154TarletonUAC2036.013.51.560
155MaineColonial017.028.01.526
156AlbanyColonial017.034.01.505
156Steph F AustinSouthland010.027.01.505
158N AlabamaUAC016.055.01.491
159ElonColonial0117.045.01.482
160SoutheasternSouthland010.024.01.468
161East TexasSouthland0113.042.01.461
161St FrancisNortheast010.029.01.461
163Idaho StBig Sky0227.542.01.426
164South DakotaMVFC017.055.01.411
165Abilene ChrUAC017.035.01.404
166Weber StBig Sky0110.045.01.355
167Illinois StMVFC013.035.01.351
168BethuneSWAC019.042.01.340
169ChattanoogaSoCon0110.045.01.318
170BucknellPatriot0113.049.01.309
171Robert MorrisNortheast013.045.01.266
172Charleston SoBSO/OVC013.045.01.259
172Stony BrookColonial010.042.01.259
174Alabama A&MSWAC017.052.01.239
174VMISoCon017.052.01.239
176C ConnecticutNortheast0113.059.01.233
177Montana StBig Sky0113.059.01.228
178LamarSouthland010.051.01.208
179W IllinoisBSO/OVC013.052.01.204
180North Dakota StMVFC1038.00.01.199
181GeorgetownPatriot1051.014.01.193
182C ArkansasUAC016.061.01.192
182Long IslandNortheast010.055.01.192
184DuquesneNortheast019.061.01.184
185FordhamPatriot0110.066.01.161
186West GeorgiaUAC1034.03.01.152
187Ark Pine BluffSWAC017.067.01.142
188E Tennessee StSoCon1045.017.01.127
189S UtahUAC1046.024.01.098
190N IowaMVFC1038.014.01.085
191Cal PolyBig Sky1041.017.01.085
192St ThomasPioneer1035.013.01.061
193TowsonColonial1027.07.01.035
194MaristPioneer1031.014.00.990
194South Dakota StMVFC1020.03.00.990
196Jackson StSWAC1028.014.00.937
197Rhode IslandColonial1031.020.00.875
198E IllinoisBSO/OVC1024.014.00.852
198Northwestern StSouthland1020.010.00.852
200NC CentralMEAC1120.520.50.835
201Youngstown StMVFC1024.015.00.828
202LehighPatriot1021.014.00.777
203Gardner WebbBSO/OVC1052.045.00.777
203UC DavisBig Sky1031.024.00.777
205PresbyterianPioneer1015.010.00.719
206Sacred HeartFCSIND1012.07.00.719
207Grambling StSWAC1055.07.00.681
208MonmouthColonial1042.039.00.656
209Tennessee StBSO/OVC1024.021.00.656
210Houston ChrSouthland1069.00.00.654
211Rio GrandeSouthland1066.00.00.653
212Tennessee TechBSO/OVC1065.00.00.653
213ValparaisoPioneer1067.010.00.650
214S IllinoisMVFC1049.03.00.644
215McNeeseSouthland1054.09.00.643
216DrakePioneer1041.07.00.632
217FurmanSoCon1023.021.00.621
218HowardMEAC1010.09.00.603
219Indiana StMVFC1041.024.00.595
220South Carolina StMEAC1016.015.00.585
221Prairie ViewSWAC1022.021.00.585
222N ColoradoBig Sky1017.03.00.584
223Morehead StPioneer1038.031.00.552
224Florida A&MSWAC019.010.00.462
225WoffordSoCon0115.016.00.458
226William & MaryColonial0121.023.00.452
227North Carolina A&TColonial0121.024.00.446
228StonehillNortheast017.012.00.436
229RichmondPatriot0114.021.00.426
230MercyhurstNortheast0115.024.00.417
231Texas SouthernSWAC0121.022.00.415
232Alcorn StSWAC0110.020.00.414
232DaytonPioneer0114.024.00.414
234CampbellColonial0120.031.00.410
235HamptonColonial0114.028.00.399
236New HavenNortheast0114.031.00.391
236Sacramento StBig Sky013.020.00.391
238LindenwoodBSO/OVC0113.035.00.379
239ButlerPioneer0114.038.00.375
240Murray StMVFC0117.045.00.368
241ColgatePatriot0139.042.00.344
242MercerSoCon0110.015.00.281
243Utah TechUAC0124.031.00.223
243W CarolinaSoCon0145.052.00.223
245Incarnate WordSouthland1118.520.50.222
246StetsonPioneer0121.031.00.208
247Portland StBig Sky020.055.50.168
248SouthernSWAC1124.030.00.122
249BrownIVY000.00.00.000
249ColumbiaIVY000.00.00.000
249CornellIVY000.00.00.000
249DartmouthIVY000.00.00.000
249HarvardIvy000.00.00.000
249MontanaBig Sky000.00.00.000
249PennIVY000.00.00.000
249PrincetonIVY000.00.00.000
249VillanovaColonial000.00.00.000
249YaleIVY000.00.00.000
259Norfolk StMEAC017.027.0-0.035
260E WashingtonBig Sky0121.031.0-0.067
261San DiegoPioneer0117.041.0-0.085
262SamfordSoCon013.034.0-0.152
263DavidsonPioneer0114.051.0-0.193
264CitadelSoCon010.038.0-0.199
265Mississippi ValleySWAC0129.034.0-0.238