Welcome back to bowl season. Yesterday we had 3 games that had their own kind of drama. Ohio (11-3/42) jumped all over Jacksonville St (9-5/72) in the Cure bowl, building a 27-7 halftime lead and 27-14 to start the 4th quarter. A quick FG pushed the lead to 30-14 and it looked like the Ohio to win, JAX to cover was not going to happen. The Gamecocks woke up scoring 13 unanswered (missed a 2-pt conversion) to cover 30-27. That game was very fun. The Gasparilla Bowl was not interesting at all, unless you’re a Florida (8-5/34) fan. Tulane (9-5/50) with their backup QB was overmatched completely. The Florida defense held the Green Wave to under 200 yards – oh yeah, the 8 points were a junk TD with 29 seconds to go. The GCR missed the predictions for that game. The opening playoff game was dominated by Notre Dame (12-1/2) for 56 minutes. Indiana (11-2/6) powered back with a score and 2-pt conversion with 1:27 to go bringing the score to 27-11. A perfect onside kick (seriously, it was a thing of beauty) and quick drive later, another score brought the lead to 27-17 with 25 seconds left. The missed conversion ended any real hope, but the Indiana kicker (Radicic) duplicated the onside kick but Notre Dame was able to get there first. The Hoosiers’ season is over, but it is the first 10+ win season in their history (they have more lifetime losses than any other FBS team). Notre Dame will move to the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day to take on Georgia.
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The GCR is now 8-1 straight up and 6-3 against the spread so far this bowl season. Here are the conference standings to date.
| Conf | Total Games | Wins | Losses | Points Scored | Points Allowed | GCR Rating | GCR Rank |
| SEC | 13 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 8 | 0.902 | 1 |
| MWC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 13 | 0.824 | 2 |
| IND | 2 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 17 | 0.807 | 3 |
| SUN | 8 | 2 | 1 | 83 | 71 | 0.603 | 4 |
| MAC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 53 | 57 | 0.491 | 5 |
| AAC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 50 | 70 | 0.458 | 6 |
| USA | 4 | 1 | 2 | 75 | 83 | 0.404 | 7 |
| B12 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 42 | 0.234 | 8 |
| Big Ten | 12 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 27 | 0.193 | 9 |
| ACC | 13 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 24 | 0.176 | 10 |
| P12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 11 |
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Today, we not only have the other 3 first round games for the FBS, but the FCS semifinals as well. It’s interesting that only one game (Clemson at Texas) is not in the snow belt. As a reminder, every game today is at the higher seeded team’s home stadium. These are not “bowl” games by the usual connotation and have the “lose and go home or live another day” feeling to them.
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We kick off with 2 games at noon (all times Eastern). Let’s start with SMU (11-2/7), runner-up for the ACC, facing the Big Ten’s runner up in Penn St (11-2/8). I hope you see the similarities in these two teams in these game notes. This is SMUs first season in the ACC since promoting from the American and they performed in an outstanding manner. Their only losses were to BYU (10-2/12) and Clemson (10-3/16) in the conference championship game, both of the 10-win teams they played. They did win the other 6 games against bowl-bound teams. Before the championship game, their opponents were 73-73 (.500) and with the Clemson game 83-76 (.522) good for 47th overall strength of schedule (SOS). Penn St has been really good, but not quite great for years, but made the B10 championship game this season. They lost to Ohio St (10-2/3) and Oregon (13-0/1), both of the 10-win teams they played. They did win the other 6 games against bowl-bound teams. Before the championship game, their opponents were 66-79 (.455) and with the Oregon game 79-79 (.500) good for 56th overall SOS. On paper these teams match up well. Weather could be a factor in this game. Vegas likes PSU-7.5 and while the GCR agrees on the win 53%, SMU should cover (unless they freeze).
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Our second noon game is a rematch between South Dakota St (12-2/113) at North Dakota St (12-2/138). SDKS lost to Oklahoma St and the Bison. Counting the first 2 rounds, they are 4-1 against playoff teams and 3-1 against 10-win teams. NDST did beat the Jackrabbits but lost to Colorado and South Dakota while rattling off 10 straight wins between those Ls. They are also 4-1 and 3-1 against good teams. The winner goes to Frisco for the championship game. The loser endures the long cold winter at home. Of note both teams (and 3 of the 4 semifinalists) are in the Missouri Valley Football Conference. Vegas sees the Jackrabbits gaining revenge -3.0 and the GCR agrees 54% and to cover.
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The other FCS championship team will be decided in the 3:30 game when South Dakota (11-2/126) of the Missouri Valley invades the Big Sky’s Montana St (14-0/91). The Coyotes lost to Wisconsin and South Dakota St, but beat North Dakota St. Overall, they faced 4 playoff teams, all of which have 10 or more wins and are 3-1 in those matchups. They played one of the more difficult FCS schedules. Montana St joins Oregon as the only perfect teams left. They even beat an FBS team when the bested New Mexico (5-7/140). They’ve beaten 5 teams that were in the playoffs, 3 of which had 10+ wins. Vegas likes the Bobcats-8.0 and the GCR agrees 58% and to cover.
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At 4:00 the FBS playoffs continue when Clemson (10-3/16), ACC champions and only 3-loss team in the playoffs, travels to Texas (11-2/4), SEC runner up. Clemson lost to the other two SEC teams they played (Georgia and South Carolina) as well as Louisville. They faced 2 10-win teams and went 1-1 (they beat SMU for the ACC title). Although they faced 7 bowl-eligible teams (going 4-3) their opponents had an overall losing record in the regular season (71-73/493). For reference, the Core 4 (ACC, B10, B12, SEC, and Notre Dame) have a 482-347 (.581) record. With the ACC championship game, they have the 54th best SOS at 82-75 (.522). Texas, in their first season in the SEC, lost to Georgia in the regular season and the title game for their only 2 losses (only 10-win team played so far). They did win the other 8 games against bowl-eligible teams. Opponents were 88-71 (.553) good for 34th. Vegas has a blowout with Texas-12.5 and the GCR agrees 63% and to cover.
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Our final game tonight is Tennessee (10-2/9) at Ohio St (10-2/3). Both teams had a good loss and a bad loss. Tennessee lost to Georgia but were upset by Arkansas. Ohio St lost to Oregon but were upset by Michigan. Both teams ran the bowl-eligible slate otherwise (TENN won 5 and OHST won 6). Georgia was the only 10-win team Tennessee faced, but Ohio St faced 4 and won 3 of those matchups. The Volunteers had the second weakest (just ahead of Missouri) SOS in the SEC with their opponents going 68-78 (.466), good for 67th. Ohio St faced the 21st hardest schedule at 86-63 (.577). Vegas has OHST-7.0 and the GCR agrees 65% and to easily cover.
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That’s it for today. There aren’t any games tomorrow, but we have 2 bowl games on Monday. Have a wonderful weekend. Thank you for reading and sharing with others, G
| Time | Bowl (Location) | Away | Home | Vegas | GCR Win | GCR Cover |
| 12:00 | College Football Playoff Game 2 (@Penn St) | SMU (11-2/7) | Penn St (11-2/8) | PSU-7.5 | PSU 53% | SMU |
| 12:00 | FCS Semifinal Game 1 (@North Dakota St) | South Dakota St (12-2/113) | North Dakota St (12-2/138) | SDKS-3.0 | SDKS 54% | SDKS |
| 3:30 | FCS Semifinal Game 2 (@Montana St) | South Dakota (11-2/126) | Montana St (14-0/91) | MTST-8.0 | MTST 58% | MTST |
| 4:00 | College Football Playoff Game 3 (@Texas) | Clemson (10-3/16) | Texas (11-2/4) | TEX-12.5 | TEX 63% | TEX |
| 8:00 | College Football Playoff Game 4 (@Ohio St) | Tennessee (10-2/9) | Ohio St (10-2/3) | OHST-7.0 | OHST 65% | OHST |
