The GCR has reported violence related to football games, campuses, or locations far too many times. In what is being called a terrorist attack, a 42-year-old Army veteran from Texas purposefully drove his rented truck into a New Orleans crowd in the early morning hours of January 1st. He killed more than a dozen people and injured more with the intention of even further damage based on arms found in the car. To protect the people, the NOPD shot and killed the man which means we may never really know his motivation. If I were in charge, the name and image of the perpetrator, if killed on the scene, would never be published. The name would never be (in)famous. If you have not already done so, please take a moment of silence for all the victims and their families. Because of his actions, the Sugar Bowl between Notre Dame and Georgia was postponed until today at 4:00 Eastern. It is noteworthy that the Attorney General of Louisiana would prefer the game be further postponed. The reality of that move, from a pure football perspective, is the semifinal game that the winner will participate in is just 7 days away. I know, and sympathize with the AG, that she is only concerned about the safety of the fans, players, coaches, and staff. Apologies to the readers, in advance, for a subdued posting today.
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There were two quarterfinal games yesterday. Texas (13-2/3) just about squandered a large lead over Arizona St (11-3/10) who overcame a 17-3 halftime deficit to tie the game in the 4th. The Texas kicker had a rough day missing 2 go-ahead field goals late in the final quarter. The teams traded TDs in the first OT and Texas scored on one play in the 2nd. Trailing by 8, AZST had to score, but failed to cross the line losing 39-31. Texas will face the winner of the second game.
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Ohio St (12-2/1) left no doubt, taking a, dominating is too small a word, 34-8 lead into the half over previous #1 Oregon (13-1/4). The Ducks did try to fight back, but the Buckeyes were too much: 41-21 final. Ohio St and Texas will face on in the Cotton Bowl January 10th at 7:30.
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I spoke about the Notre Dame/Georgia Sugar Bowl yesterday and the only thing that fundamentally has changed is the Vegas spread shifted from GEO-1.0 to ND-1.0. The GCR calculates ND at 52% so they will win and cover (even though I’m pulling for Georgia).
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The only game originally scheduled for today, with an 8:00 kickoff from Jacksonville is the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl featuring the ACC’s 7th place Duke Blue Devils (9-3/28) and the SEC’s 8th place Mississippi Rebels (9-3/19). At a first glance, the teams are somewhat equal. Both got off to a hot start (Duke 5-0, MISS 4-0), both were similarly successful against bowl eligible teams (Duke 4-3, MISS 5-2), both had easier schedules than most (Duke 74-77 (.490) good for 68th strongest, MISS 74-76 (.493) good for 63rd). Where there is a difference is in the OER and DER (Offensive and Defensive Efficiency Rating). Duke has a poor OER of 99 (132nd in the country) meaning they score 9.9 points for every 10.0 points their opponents normally allow. When you factor in the low SOS, that is not good. They will face a Rebel DER of 189 (5th) which means MISS gives up 10.0 points for every 18.9 their opponents normally score. Doing the math, Duke should score 13.97 points. When Mississippi is on offense, they have an OER of 143 (12th) and face a Duke DER of 125 (52nd). They should score 30.87. That’s a 16.9-point difference. Vegas has MISS-17.5 which is awfully close to that number. The GCR gives MISS a 67% advantage, but DUKE will cover…barely. Both games are on ESPN.
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Thank you for reading and sharing with others. Please be safe out there, G
| Time | Bowl (Location) | Team | Team | Vegas | GCR Win | GCR Cover |
| 4:00 | FBS QF Allstate Sugar – New Orleans | Notre Dame (12-1/2) | Georgia (11-2/6) | ND-1.0 | ND 52% | ND |
| 8:00 | TaxSlayer Gator -Jacksonville | Duke (9-3/28) | Mississippi (9-3/19) | MISS-17.5 | MISS 67% | DUKE |
