Happy New Year’s Eve, oh great and wonderful college football fans. So far there have been 33 bowl games and a whopping 19 of them have been one-score (8 points or fewer) games. That’s a lot of excitement. There have only been 9 games decided by 17 or more points and only 5 20+ point victories. Memphis beat Utah St 38-10 given us the biggest victory margin so far. BYU’s 24-23 win over SMU and Oregon topping UNC 28-27 gave us our 1-point games. Overall, the average score of all bowls is 31.1 to 21.0, a margin of 11.1.
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Let’s recap yesterday’s games, Maryland upset NC St in the Duke’s Pre-Mayo Bath Bowl, 16-12 in a defensive battle (1 TD the entire game). Vegas 0-1, GCR 0-1, Cover 0-1. In the Sun Bowl, Pittsburgh roared back with 16 4th-quarter points, including a game-winning field goal with 10 seconds to go, to beat UCLA, who had just retaken the lead with 30 seconds to go, 37-35. Another great finish, but Vegas 0-2, GCR 0-2, Cover 0-2. The Gator Bowl had just about everything. Special teams trick plays for a TD for SCAR and a 4th quarter first down for ND. Defensive scores and stands. A Gator Bowl record 83 points as Notre Dame held off the Gamecocks 45-38. Vegas 1-2, GCR 1-2, Cover 1-2. Ohio had to go to overtime to beat Wyoming 30-27. Before the bowl season began Wyoming was listed as a close favorite, but Vegas flipped that around by game time so Vegas 2-2, GCR 2-2, Cover 2-2. In the finale, Tennessee simply did not allow Clemson to capitalize on their offense, jumping ahead 14-0 and winning 31-14. Vegas 2-3, GCR 2-3, Cover 3-2.
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The current list of winners/losers is below. With 4 games today and Monday, plus the championship game, we will be without the ACC, MAC, Independents, and the Mountain West. They all played their last bowl games for this season last night.
| Conference | Winners | Losers | Remaining |
| American (7) | Houston, Memphis, East Carolina | Cincinnati, SMU, UCF | Tulane |
| ACC (9) | Louisville, Wake Forest, Duke, Florida St, Pittsburgh | UNC, Syracuse, NC St, Clemson | — |
| Big 12 (8) | Texas Tech | Baylor, Oklahoma St, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas | Kansas St, TCU |
| Big Ten (9) | Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maryland | Iowa, Michigan, Ohio St, Illinois, Purdue, Penn St | |
| C-USA (6) | UAB, W Kentucky, Middle Tennessee | UTSA, Rice, North Texas | — |
| Indies (5) | BYU, New Mexico St, Notre Dame | UCONN, Liberty | — |
| MAC (6) | E Michigan, Toledo, Buffalo, Ohio | Miami OH, Bowling Green | — |
| MWC (7) | Fresno St, Boise St, Air Force | San Jose St, San Diego St, Utah St, Wyoming | — |
| Pac 12 (7) | Oregon St, Oregon, Washington | Washington St, UCLA | Southern Cal, Utah |
| SEC (11) | Arkansas, Tennessee | Florida, Missouri, Mississippi, South Carolina | Alabama, Kentucky, Georgia, Mississippi St, LSU |
| Sun (7) | Troy, Southern Miss, Marshall | South Alabama, Louisiana, Ga Southern, Coastal Carolina | — |
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And the detail behind those winners/losers:
| Conference | Record | Exp Rec | vs Power 5 | vs Group 5 | Favorite | Underdog | Vegas ATS | GCR S/U | GCR Cover |
| American (7) | 3-3 (.500) | 4-3 (.571) | 0-2 (.000) | 3-1 (.750) | 3-1 (.750) | 0-2 (.000) | 2-1-1 (.667) | 2-2 (.500 | 0-1 (.000) |
| ACC (9) | 5-4 (.556) | 5-4 (.556) | 3-4 (.429) | 2-0 (1.000) | 4-2 (.667) | 1-2 (.333) | 3-3 (.500) | 3-2 (.600) | 3-2 (.600) |
| Big 12 (8) | 1-5 (.167) | 2-6 (.250) | 1-4 (.200) | 0-1 (000) | 0-2 (000) | 1-3 (.250) | 0-2 (.000) | 0-1 (000) | 0-1 (000) |
| Big Ten (9) | 3-0 (1.000) | 6-3 (.667) | 3-0 (1.000) | — | 2-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-1 (.500) | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-1 (000) |
| C-USA (6) | 3-3 (.500) | 2-4 (.333) | — | 3-3 (.500) | 1-1 (.500) | 2-2 (.500) | 0-2 (.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-1 (.500) |
| Indies (5) | 3-2 (.600) | 1-4 (.200) | 1-0 (1.000) | 2-2 (.500) | 1-0 (1.000) | 2-2 (.500) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-1 (.500) | 3-1 (.750) |
| MAC (6) | 4-2 (.667) | 3-3 (.500) | — | 4-2 (.667) | 2-1 (.667) | 2-1 (.667) | 1-2 (.333) | 3-1 (.750) | 4-1 (.800) |
| MWC (7) | 3-4 (.429) | 4-3 (.571) | 2-0 (1.000) | 1-4 (.200) | 2-2 (.500) | 1-2 (.333) | 1-3 (.2503) | 3-1 (.750) | 2-2 (.500) |
| Pac 12 (7) | 3-2 (.600) | 5-2 (.714) | 3-1 (.750) | 0-1 (000) | 2-1 (.667) | 1-1 (.500) | 1-2 (.333) | 3-1 (.750) | 2-1 (.667) |
| SEC (11) | 2-4 (.333) | 5-6 (.455) | 2-4 (.333) | — | 1-1 (.500) | 1-3 (.250) | 0-2 (.000) | 1-1 (.500) | 1-2 (.333) |
| Sun (7) | 3-4 (.429) | 4-3 (.571) | — | 3-4 (.429) | 2-2 (.500) | 1-2 (.500) | 2-2 (.667) | 3-2 (.600) | 1-2-1 (.333) |
| Total | 33 | 41 | 15-15 (.500) | 18-18 (.500) | 20-13 (.606) | 13-20 (.394) | 12-20-1 (.375) | 21-12 (.636) | 17-15-1 (.531) |
| Power 5 (45) | 15-15 (.500) | 24-21 (.533) | 13-13 (.500) | 2-2 (.500) | 10-6 (.625) | 5-9 (.357) | 6-10 (.375) | 9-5 (.643) | 7-7 (.500) |
| Group of 5 (37) | 18-18 (.500) | 17-20 (.459) | 2-2 (.500) | 16-16 (.500) | 10-7 (.588) | 8-11 (.421) | 6-10-1 (.375) | 12-7 (.632) | 10-8-1 (.556) |
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We have 4 games today and the first two are at 12:00 (all times Eastern). The Sugar Bowl, out of New Orleans, features Alabama (10-2/6) of the SEC and the Big 12 champions Kansas St (10-3/11). Alabama played the 36th most difficult schedule and lost to Tennessee and LSU this season which kept them out of the SEC championship game and the playoffs. Kansas St did lose to Tulane (who is playing Monday in a NY6 Bowl), TCU (who they later beat for the championship and is playing in a semifinal later today), and Texas (who just lost in the Alamo Bowl), but they did win the Big 12 while playing the 17th most difficult schedule. When the Tide has the ball, we’ll see an OER of 151, good for 6th best in the country, which means they score 15.1 points for every 10 points their opponents normally allow, while facing a Kansas St DER of 156 (15th), meaning they give up 10 points for every 15.6 points their opponents normally score. When the Wildcats are on offense, an OER of 123 (48th) will drive against an Alabama DER of 167 (10th). Vegas likes Alabama -7.5 and the GCR agrees 67.2% and to cover.
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Also at noon, the Music City Bowl, aka the Defensive Bowl, pits Iowa (7-5/42) and Kentucky (7-5/39). Both of these teams excel of defense while their offense is a little…um…er…spotty. When the Hawkeyes are…um…running their offense, they bring an anemic OER of 92 (192nd) vs a solid Kentucky DER of 123 (60). However, when the Wildcats are…um…trying to move the ball, they bring an OER of 95 (152nd) vs an elite Iowa DER of 184 (3). Vegas has Iowa -3.0 and the GCR concurs 55.3% and to cover.
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In the first semifinal, kicking off at 4:00, TCU (12-1/4), who lost their championship game in OT after a 12-0 start take on Michigan (13-0/2), winners of the Big Ten. These two teams SOS rank is very similar (TCU 61st most difficult schedule and MICH 62nd), and both have great offenses: TCU OER 141 (15th), MICH OER 164 (3rd), but the defenses are when they separate. TCU has a better than average defense but had some games in which they let the score escalate, giving them a DER of 123 (59th). Michigan is the only team right now with a top 5 OER and DER, which comes in at 184 (4th). TCU can strike quickly which it will need to do to keep it close, but Vegas sees Michigan moving to the championship game -7.5 and the GCR agrees 93.7% and to cover.
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In the nightcap, at 8:00, the second semifinal brings in two bluebloods of college football when Georgia (13-0/1) takes on Ohio St (11-1/3). Ohio St’s only loss came to Michigan in The Game. Georgia played the 31st most difficult schedule in remaining perfect and the Buckeyes came in 45th in SOS. When Ohio St has the ball, we have the perfect strength on strength. After the Orange Bowl, Tennessee’s OER fell a couple of points, so the Buckeyes are now the best offense in the country with an OER of 186 (1st) and will battle against the best defense in the country when the Bulldogs bring a DER of 233 (1st). There will be some hard hitting tonight! When Georgia is driving, they bring an OER of 146 (10th) vs a DER of 136 (30th). Pretty even there as well. Look for hard-won points in this. Vegas has the Bulldogs -6.0 and the GCR agrees yet again, 92.4% and to cover.
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That’s it for today. The summary is below. Enjoy and thanks for reading, G
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| Away | Conf Rec | Home | Conf Rec | Vegas | GCR | To Cover |
| 12:00 | December 31, 2022 | Sugar Bowl | New Orleans | |||
| Alabama (10-2/6) | SEC (6-2) | Kansas St (10-3/11) | Big 12 (8-2) | ALA -7.5 | ALA 67.2% | ALA |
| 12:00 | Music City Bowl | Nashville | ||||
| Iowa (7-5/42) | Big Ten (5-4) | Kentucky (7-5/39) | SEC (3-5) | IOWA -3.0 | IOWA 55.3% | IOWA |
| 4:00 | Semifinal – Fiesta Bowl | Glendale, AZ | ||||
| TCU (12-1/4) | Big 12 (9-1) | Michigan (13-0/2) | Big Ten (10-0) | MICH -7.5 | MICH 93.7% | MICH |
| 8:00 | Semifinal – Peach Bowl | Atlanta | ||||
| Ohio St (11-1/3) | Big Ten (8-1) | Georgia (13-0/1) | SEC (9-0) | GEO -6.0 | GEO 92.4% | GEO |
