Welcome back after the post-bowl decompression. I know tomorrow is the big game between Michigan (14-0/1) and Washington (14-0/2) which is getting almost all of the press, but there is a championship game today between South Dakota St (14-0/97), 1st in the FCS, and Montana (13-1/129), 3rd in the FCS. Note: Florida A&M (12-1/125) holds the #2 spot. Before you see the rankings and think, ugh, who are these teams, remember there are 133 FBS teams, which means these teams are better than some of them (a lot in South Dakota St’s case). Also remember that the Strength of Schedule for these teams are lower than the FBS teams so their performance has been stellar.
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Before we get to the big game today, let’s sum up New Year’s Day. The Big Ten started out slow with a last-minute loss by Wisconsin (7-6/68) to LSU (10-3/11) 35-31, but they covered the spread. Later Iowa (10-4/21) proved that their offense could indeed get worse by being shutout 35-0 by Tennessee (9-4/18). Liberty (13-1/14) started strong against Oregon (12-2/7) before being overwhelmed 45-6.
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In the first semifinal, it looked like Alabama (12-2/5) had Michigan (14-0/1) on the ropes for a 3rd straight semi-final loss. But, the Wolverines tied the game late and survived a near-disastrous muffed punt to win in the first OT 27-20. In the second semi, Texas (12-2/6) fought valiantly to make a comeback against Washington (14-0/2) but came up just short 37-31.
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The GCR was 4-1 straight up and 3-2 against the spread. With two games left, FBS straight up is 589-223 (.725), FCS straight up is 384-199 (.659), and ATS is 363-327 (.526). In featured games, straight up is 87-39 (.690) and ATS is 52-38 (.578).
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Here is the conference tracker. The winner of the game Monday night will give their conference the best in the bowls title as well as the Natty.
| Conference | Record | GCR Pred | PF-PA | Winners | Losers | GCR Miss |
| American | 3-3 (.500) | 2-4 (.333) | 191-152 | UTSA, South Florida*, Memphis* | Rice, Tulane*, SMU* | South Florida, Tulane, SMU, Memphis |
| ACC | 5-6 (.455) | 4-7 (.364) | 232-325 | Georgia Tech, Duke^, Virginia Tech^, Boston College^, Clemson | Syracuse^, North Carolina, NC St, Louisville, Miami FL, Florida St | Georgia Tech, Duke, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Boston College, Miami FL, Syracuse |
| Big 12 | 5-4 (.556) | 5-4 (.556) | 270-242 | Texas Tech, Kansas^, West Virginia, Oklahoma St, Kansas St | UCF, Oklahoma, Iowa St^, Texas | UCF, Oklahoma, Iowa St, Texas |
| Big Ten | 5-4 (.556) | 4-5 (.444) | 192-210 | Northwestern, Minnesota^, Rutgers, Maryland, Michigan | Ohio St, Penn St, Wisconsin, Iowa | Northwestern,Minnesota, Rutgers, Ohio St. Penn St |
| C-USA | 2-2 (.500) | 3-1 (.750) | 88-148 | Jacksonville St, W Kentucky | New Mexico St, Liberty* | New Mexico St |
| IND | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 40-8 | Notre Dame | — | — |
| MAC | 2-4 (.333) | 2-4 (.333) | 120-158 | Ohio, N Illinois | Miami OH, E Michigan, Bowling Green*, Toledo | Miami OH, N Illinois, Bowling Green, Toledo |
| MWC | 3-4 (.429) | 4-3 (.571) | 178-199 | Fresno St, Air Force, Wyoming | Boise St*, Utah St, San Jose St, UNLV* | Fresno St, Air Force, Wyoming |
| Pac 12 | 5-3 (.625) | 4-4 (.500) | 226-199 | UCLA^, Southern Cal, Arizona, Oregon^, Washington | California, Utah, Oregon St | Utah, Southern Cal, Arizona, Washington |
| SEC | 5-4 (.556) | 7-2 (.778) | 276-189 | Missouri, Mississippi, Georgia, LSU, Tennessee | Texas A&M, Kentucky, Auburn, Alabama | Missouri, Mississippi |
| SUN | 5-7 (.417) | 8-4 (.667) | 330-293 | App St, Georgia St, South Alabama, Coastal Carolina, Texas St | Ga Southern, Louisiana, Old Dominion, Marshall, Arkansas St, Troy^, James Madison | App St, Arkansas St, Troy, James Madison |
| Overall | 41-41 | 22-19 (.537) | * vs Power 5 | ^ vs Group of 5 |
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But today is about the FCS championship game. The Montana Grizzlies vs the South Dakota St Jackrabbits. The game is in Frisco, Texas, with a 2:00 Eastern Kickoff. It’s on ABC and I recommend watching if you have the opportunity. It will be a good one. As a reminder, OER and DER are offensive and defensive efficiency ratings that provide a metric around the relative “goodness” of a team. If a team scores a lot more than its opponents normally allow, they will have a high OER. Likewise, if a team gives up a lot fewer points than its opponents normally score, they will have a high DER. Here’s the tale of the tape.
| Team | OER/PPG | DER/PPG | Opp’s Record – Rank | Vs FCS Playoff Teams | Best Win | Worst Loss |
| MONT | 123 (46th)/32.2 | 165 (12th)/168 | 84-72 (.538) – 195th | 6-0 (1.000) | North Dakota St (11-4/138) | N Arizona (5-6/199) |
| SDKS | 159 (5th)/38.4 | 287 (1st)/9.7 | 106-58 (.646) – 155th | 10-0 (1.000) | Villanova (10-3/137) | — |
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Let’s dig a little deeper into the schedule. There are some symbols to help explain. I’m using $ to indicate a Division II opponent. @ indicates an away game and N indicates a neutral site game. # indicates an opponent who made the playoffs (only 24 teams do) and % indicates a playoff game.
| Montana’s Opponents | South Dakota St’s Opponents |
| Butler (7-4) – 35-20 | W Oregon ($) – 45-7 |
| @Utah Tech (2-9) – 43-13 | Montana St (8-4#) – 20-16 |
| Ferris St ($) – 17-10 | (N) Drake (8-4#) – 70-7 |
| @N Arizona (5-6) – 14-28 | North Dakota (7-5#) – 42-21 |
| Idaho St (3-8) – 28-20 | @Illinois St (6-5) – 40-21 |
| @UC Davis (7-4) – 31-23 | N Iowa (6-5) – 41-6 |
| @Idaho (9-4#) – 23-21 | @S Illinois (8-5#) – 17-10 |
| N Colorado (0-11) – 40-0 | @South Dakota (10-3#) – 37-3 |
| Sacramento St (8-5#) – 34-7 | North Dakota St (11-4#) – 33-16 |
| @Portland St (5-6) – 34-10 | @Youngstown St (8-5#) – 34-0 |
| Montana St (8-4#) – 37-7 | Missouri St (4-7) – 35-17 |
| Delaware (9-4%) – 49-19 | Mercer (9-4%) – 41-0 |
| Furman (10-3%) – 35-28 | Villanova (10-3%) – 23-12 |
| North Dakota St (11-4%) – 31-29 | Albany (11-4%) – 59-0 |
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Vegas likes South Dakota St-14.0 and that sounds like a lot. Jackrabbits win, but look for Montana to keep it closer than a complete blowout. The GCR calculates a 12-point game, so Grizzlies cover.
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That’s it for today. Thank you for reading and sharing with others, G
