Welcome back, sports fans, to a brand-new year! We are kicking the year off with three quarterfinal games, which just feels right. This post is coming to you from beautiful St Lucia.
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First, we need to talk about the games from NYE. Iowa made Vanderbilt play from behind the entire ReliaQuest Bowl and the Commodores came up short – IOWA 34, VAND 27 (GCR 0-1/0-1). In the Sun Bowl, aka the Devils’ Bowl, Duke out-offensed Arizona St 42-39 (GCR 0-2/1-1). The Citrus Bowl was a blowout with Texas torching Michigan 41-27 (GCR 1-2/1-2). Then the Las Vegas Bowl mismatch showed through with Nebraska unable to keep up – UTAH 44, NEB 22 (GCR 2-2/2-2). Our first quarterfinal playoff game saw Miami FL score on offense then a pick six to go up 14-0 and, more importantly, control the game. They beat favored Ohio St by the 10-point margin that Ohio St was supposed to win by. Give the Hurricanes some credit – MIAF 24, OHST 14 (GCR 2-3/3-2).
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The first game today, at 12:00 (all times Eastern) sees the Big Ten’s Oregon Ducks (12-1/4) taking on the Big 12’s Texas Tech Red Raiders (12-1/2) in the Capital One Orange Bowl out of Miami Gardens – home to the championship game later. Based on the GCR ratings, this should be a semi-final rather than a quarterfinal game, but the committee didn’t ask us. Oregon was 7-1 facing bowl eligible teams this season including 1-1 against playoff teams. They lost to Indiana during the regular season and beat James Madison in the first round. Their best win was against Southern Cal (9-4/17) and their only loss was to Indiana (13-0/1). Texas Tech is the lone remaining playoff team that has not yet played a playoff team. Going 7-1 against bowl teams, they did beat Utah (11-2/8), who should have been a playoff team by GCR rank, but lost to Arizona St (8-5/38). Vegas has Oregon-2.5, but the GCR thinks TXTC is the better team and will win 56.0% of the time and cover.
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At 4:00 we have the Prudential Rose Bowl, played in Pasadena, between the SEC’s Alabama Crimson Tide (11-3/13) and the Big Ten’s Indiana Hoosiers (13-0/1), the last undefeated team in Division I. Alabama went 6-2 against bowl-eligible teams including an odd 2-2 record against playoff teams. Odd because one win and one loss came against Georgia, including the loss to the Bulldogs in the SEC championship game, and they also went 1-1 against Oklahoma including the win over the Sooners in Round 1. That win against Georgia (12-1/5) in the regular season was the strongest while the opening game loss to Florida St (5-7/60) was the worst. Indiana was one of two Cinderellas this season. Vanderbilt’s clock chimed midnight last night. The Hoosiers just kept winning. 7-0 against bowl teams including a 2-0 mark over playoff teams – Oregon and Ohio St (in the Big Ten championship game). That win over the Buckeyes (12-2/3) was their best, but Oregon is also a GCR top 5 team. Vegas has Indiana-7.5, and the GCR agrees with a 69.0% chance to win and to cover.
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Our final quarterfinal kicks off at 8:00 from New Orleans in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. We will see another playoff rematch when the SEC’s Mississippi Rebels (12-1/9) who saw Tulane for the second time in their round 1 victory) faces the SEC’s Georgia Bulldogs (12-1/5). These teams met in the regular season as well, with GEO prevailing. The Rebels were 6-1 against bowl teams and an impressive 3-1 against playoff teams with wins over Oklahoma and Tulane (twice). Their best win was that Oklahoma (10-3/11) game and the Georgia loss was their only one. Georgia was 5-1 against bowl teams and 2-1 against playoff teams – they beat Mississippi and Alabama (in the SEC championship game) but lost to Alabama in the regular season. Beating Mississippi was the best win and losing to Alabama was their only defeat. Vegas likes GEO-6.5 and while the GCR agrees the Bulldogs will win 53.0%, expect the Rebels to cover.
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That’s it for today. Happy New Year to all of our readers. We cannot thank you enough for your support and your willingness to share our posts with others. See you tomorrow for the next set of bowls, JoJo and G
