Welcome back after a much-needed break from the college football bowl season. Opt-outs. Transfer portal open during the bowl season. A 13-0 team playing with essentially their practice squad and getting blown out. Something has to be done about the competitiveness of non-playoff bowl games.
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The GCR was just 9-10 (.474) straight up this past week and an abysmal 7-12 (.368) against the spread. That brings the straight up FBS games to 585-222 (.725) and ATS to 360-325 (.526). Featured straight up games are now 83-38 (.686) while featured ATS are 49-36 (.576). I may have to find an adjusting variable for opt-outs, etc., for next year.
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Saturday, we did have 4 games. In the Peach Bowl, Mississippi (11-2/9) showed that, once again, Penn St (10-3/11) just doesn’t have what it takes against elite teams, 38-25. It was close in the first half, but the speed of the Rebels wore the N Lions down.
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Maryland (8-5/41) took care of business with a strong stomping of Auburn (6-7/49), 31-13. The Terrapins jumped to a 21-0 1st quarter lead and never looked back to win the Music City Bowl.
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Florida St (13-1/6) was upset that they didn’t make the playoff so most of their star players opted out or transferred before the game. Georgia (13-1/2) was upset that they didn’t make the playoff and had a chip on their shoulder. Final score 63-3, Dawgs, and it could have been worse if Georgia kept their starters in the game.
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The Arizona Bowl was tight right up until the walk off field goal by Wyoming (9-4/47) to beat Toledo (11-3/43) 16-15. The Cowboys scored the last 10 points, all in the 4th quarter, to take the title.
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The table shows how the conferences have performed so far this bowl season. With just 5 games today and both (FCS and FBS) championship games to go, we are almost done for the season.
| Conference | Record | GCR Pred | PF-PA | Winners | Losers | GCR Miss |
| American | 3-3 (.500) | 2-4 (.333) | 191-152 | UTSA, South Florida*, Memphis* | Rice, Tulane*, SMU* | South Florida, Tulane, SMU, Memphis |
| ACC | 5-6 (.455) | 4-7 (.364) | 232-325 | Georgia Tech, Duke^, Virginia Tech^, Boston College^, Clemson | Syracuse^, North Carolina, NC St, Louisville, Miami FL, Florida St | Georgia Tech, Duke, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Boston College, Miami FL, Syracuse |
| Big 12 | 5-3 (.625) | 5-3 (.625) | 239-215 | Texas Tech, Kansas^, West Virginia, Oklahoma St, Kansas St | UCF, Oklahoma, Iowa St^ | UCF, Oklahoma, Iowa St |
| Big Ten | 4-2 (.667) | 1-5 (.167) | 134-120 | Northwestern, Minnesota^, Rutgers, Maryland | Ohio St, Penn St | Northwestern,Minnesota, Rutgers, Ohio St. Penn St |
| C-USA | 2-1 (667) | 2-1 (667) | 82-103 | Jacksonville St, W Kentucky | New Mexico St | New Mexico St |
| IND | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 40-8 | Notre Dame | — | — |
| MAC | 2-4 (.333) | 2-4 (.333) | 120-158 | Ohio, N Illinois | Miami OH, E Michigan, Bowling Green*, Toledo | Miami OH, N Illinois, Bowling Green, Toledo |
| MWC | 3-4 (.429) | 4-3 (.571) | 178-199 | Fresno St, Air Force, Wyoming | Boise St*, Utah St, San Jose St, UNLV* | Fresno St, Air Force, Wyoming |
| Pac 12 | 3-3 (.500) | 3-3 (.500) | 144-162 | UCLA^, Southern Cal, Arizona | California, Utah, Oregon St | Utah, Southern Cal, Arizona |
| SEC | 3-3 (.500) | 4-2 (.667) | 186-131 | Missouri, Mississippi, Georgia | Texas A&M, Kentucky, Auburn | Missouri, Mississippi |
| SUN | 5-7 (.417) | 8-4 (.667) | 330-293 | App St, Georgia St, South Alabama, Coastal Carolina, Texas St | Ga Southern, Louisiana, Old Dominion, Marshall, Arkansas St, Troy^, James Madison | App St, Arkansas St, Troy, James Madison |
| Overall | 36-36 | 18-18 (.500) | * vs Power 5 | ^ vs Group of 5 |
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Our first game today, with a noon (all times Eastern) kickoff is the Reliaquest Bowl played in Tampa featuring the Wisconsin Badgers (7-5/66) of the Big Ten vs the LSU Tigers (9-3/13) of the SEC. As a reminder, OER stands for Offensive Efficiency Rating and DER stands for Defensive Efficiency Rating. Here’s the tale of the tape.
| Team | OER/PPG | DER/PPG | Opp’s Record – Rank | Vs Bowl Teams | Best Win | Worst Loss |
| WISC | 95 (147th)/22.8 | 125 (55th)/18.9 | 73-77 (.487) – 77th | 3-3 (.500) | Rutgers (7-6/38) | Indiana (3-9/73) |
| LSU | 194 (1st)/46.4 | 105 (101st)/27.8 | 92-59 (.609) – 2nd | 4-3 (.571) | Missouri (11-2/14) | Mississippi (11-2/9) |
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Vegas has LSU-8.5 and the GCR agrees strongly. Tigers win and cover.
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At 1:00, in Orlando’s Citrus Bowl, the Iowa Hawkeyes (10-3/17) take on the Tennessee Volunteers (8-4/24).
| Team | OER/PPG | DER/PPG | Opp’s Record – Rank | Vs Bowl Teams | Best Win | Worst Loss |
| IOWA | 70 (230th)/16.6 | 190 (5th)/13.2 | 86-77 (.528) – 46th | 5-4 (.556) | Iowa St (7-6/31) | Minnesota (6-7/58) |
| TENN | 124 (43rd)/31.5 | 135 (37th)/22.0 | 86-65 (.570) – 30th | 3-3 (.500) | Kentucky (7-6/40) | Florida (5-7/52) |
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The purely defensive Hawkeyes have won 10 games despite being the 31st worst relative offense in the country (including FCS). They score just 7 points for every 10 points their opponents normally allow. Their defense is elite (it would have to be). Tennessee is in the top 50 on both sides of the ball. Vegas likes the Vols-5.5 and the GCR agrees in a low-scoring game. Tennessee wins and covers.
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Also at 1:00, the Fiesta Bowl out of Glendale Arizona features the best Group of 5 team, and one of only 4 college football teams still undefeated (Michigan, Washington, and South Dakota St) teams in D1, the Liberty Flames (13-0/10) take on the perfect (unless they are playing Washington) Oregon Ducks (11-2/8).
| Team | OER/PPG | DER/PPG | Opp’s Record – Rank | Vs Bowl Teams | Best Win | Worst Loss |
| LIB | 147 (11th) – 40.8 | 108 (88th) – 22.7 | 73-93 (.440) – 126th | 6-0 (1.000) | Jacksonville St (9-4/71) | — |
| ORE | 151 (9th) – 44.2 | 170 (8th) – 17.3 | 88-75 (.540) – 45th | 5-2 (.714) | Southern Cal (8-5/27) | Washington* (13-0/3) |
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Liberty became the only Conference USA team in the 4-team playoff era to earn the NY6 spot for the Group of 5. They’ve had a great season, slowly moving up the radar with win after win. Oregon lost to undefeated Washington twice. Both teams can score, but Oregon’s speed, defense, and experience will come into play. Vegas has the Ducks–18.0 and the GCR agrees. Oregon wins and covers.
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In our first semifinal, played in the Rose Bowl at 5:00, we have the undefeated Michigan Wolverines (13-0/1) vs the Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1/5).
| Team | OER/PPG | DER/PPG | Opp’s Record – Rank | Vs Bowl Teams | Best Win | Worst Loss |
| ALA | 145 (13th)/35.1 | 171 (7th)/18.4 | 101-64 (.617) – 9th | 8-1 (.889) | Georgia (13-1/2) | Texas (12-1/4) |
| MICH | 164 (2nd)/36.7 | 256 (2nd)/9.5 | 86-79 (.521) – 51st | 8-0 (1.000) | Ohio St (11-2/7) | — |
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Michigan played a much weaker schedule but are 2nd in both offense and defense. Alabama’s opponents have 100 wins on the season, and they still beat everyone but Texas. They got stronger as the season progressed. The nightmare scenario for the NCAA is Michigan wins the championship and then has to vacate the season following the scandals. Vegas has the Wolverines with a slight edge -2.0 and the GCR sees it as a very close contest. Michigan wins and covers.
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Our final non-championship game of the season and 2nd semifinal, played in New Orleans’ Sugar Bowl, the Texas Longhorns (12-1/4) take on the undefeated Washington Huskies (13-0/3).
| Team | OER/PPG | DER/PPG | Opp’s Record – Rank | Vs Bowl Teams | Best Win | Worst Loss |
| TEX | 138 (22nd)/36.2 | 170 (10th)/17.5 | 96-70 (.578) – 20th | 8-1 (.889) | Alabama (12-1/5) | Oklahoma (10-3/12) |
| WASH | 140 (19th)/37.7 | 128 (52nd)/23.6 | 89-76 (.539) – 50th | 8-0 (1.000) | Oregon* (11-2/8) | — |
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Vegas has Texas-3.5. The offenses are very close. They’ve both been successful in games against good teams. Washington won 7 of it’s games by 1 score. The magic is not going to last. Texas wins and covers.
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The GCR predicts the championship game will be between Michigan and Texas.
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That’s it for today. Happy New Year and enjoy the games of the day. Thanks for reading and sharing, G
