Welcome to episode 440 of the GCR. Yesterday we saw upsets, fireworks between coaches, Penn St winning a big game, and tons of good football. We started with the ReliaQuest bowl where Alabama (9-4/17) couldn’t hold on to the ball much in the first half falling behind 16-0. They eventually closed the gap, but Michigan (8-5/22) ended their season with upsets over Ohio St and the Crimson Elephants. Final score 19-13. Louisville (9-4/21) broke the ACC curse in a 35-34 victory over Washington (6-7/40) in the Sun Bowl where both teams traded touchdowns to a 21-21 half. LOU had 2 TDs in the 3rd and WASH answered with 2 in the 4th electing (and failing) to go for 2 with 9 ticks remaining. The fireworks started early yesterday with some bad behavior in the Citrus Bowl. Illinois (10-3/14) gamed the defensive substitution rules limiting the South Carolina (9-4/20) offense before the snap. The coaches may have become lifetime enemies (each called the other “bush league” in their respective press conferences). The Illini prevailed 21-17. LSU (9-4/27) owned Baylor (8-5/34) 44-31 (it was 34-17 at the half and the game was never in question) in the Texas Bowl. In our first FBS quarterfinal, Boise St (12-2/13) put up a great fight for 2 1/2 quarters, but the size, speed, and depth of Penn St (13-2/5) won out 31-14.
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The GCR was 3-2 straight up taking us to 25-14 (.641) for the bowl season and 4-1 against the spread for an 22-17 (.564) to date. Here are the conference standings to date:
| Conf | Total Games | Games Played | Wins | Losses | Points Scored | Points Allowed | GCR Rating | GCR Rank |
| IND | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 54 | 31 | 0.721 | 1 |
| AAC | 8 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 209 | 171 | 0.613 | 2 |
| MAC | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 203 | 178 | 0.530 | 3 |
| SEC | 14 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 240 | 207 | 0.515 | 4 |
| Big Ten | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 217 | 171 | 0.491 | 5 |
| B12 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 233 | 216 | 0.480 | 6 |
| SUN | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 139 | 180 | 0.424 | 7 |
| USA | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 81 | 110 | 0.310 | 8 |
| MWC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 100 | 125 | 0.306 | 9 |
| ACC | 13 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 263 | 333 | 0.275 | 10 |
| P12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 35 | 52 | 0.211 | 11 |
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Today we only have three games, but they are all FBS playoff games. All can be seen on ESPN. Starting at 1:00 (all times Eastern), in the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl out of Atlanta, we have the SEC runner up Texas Longhorns (12-2/4) taking on the Big 12 champion Arizona St Sun Devils (11-2/9). Both of the Longhorns’ losses came against Georgia (11-2) as they went 9-2 against bowl eligible (BE) teams. When they have the ball, they have an Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) of 140 (14th in the country). OER is a GCR calculation that is a comparative scoring metric with 100 being the theoretical mean. The score of 140 means that Texas scores 14.0 points for every 10.0 points their opponents normally allow. Their Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER) is 209 (2nd). Their DER means they allow 10.0 points for every 20.9 point their opponents normally score. Arizona St lost to Texas Tech (8-5), who also beat Iowa St (11-3), as well as to 5-7 Cincinnati. They only faced 5 BE teams winning 4 including the Big 12 championship game against Iowa St. Their OER is 122 (47th) and DER is 134 (32nd). Both solid, but not elite. Vegas has Texas winning big today-13.0 and the GCR agrees on the victory 55%, but AZST should cover.
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At 5:00, in the Rose Bowl out of Pasadena, we have a rematch between the Big Ten’s 3rd place Ohio St Buckeyes (11-2/3) and the undefeated Big Ten champion Oregon Ducks (13-0/1). Ohio St lost to Oregon by 1 in Eugene and for the 5th straight year against Michigan (8-5), going 7-2 against BE teams. Their OER is 155 (4th) and DER is the Division I leading 239 (1st). Oregon, along with Montana St (15-0) are the only D1 perfect teams, and went 7-0 against BE competition and 4-0 in one-score games. Along the way they took out Penn St (13-2), Ohio St, Illinois (10-3), and Boise St (12-2). Their OER is 148 (9th) and DER is 144 (20th). Vegas has Ohio St-2.5, but the GCR will pick the team with the #1 performance score every time in a neutral site. Oregon to win 51% and to cover.
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Our nightcap, from New Orleans at 8:45, the Allstate Sugar Bowl features Notre Dame (12-1/2) and the SEC champion Georgia Bulldogs (11-2/6). Notre Dame’s only blemish was a huge upset in week 2 against N Illinois (8-5), but they gave both Army (11-2) and Navy (10-3) their first losses of the season. They also took down Indiana (11-2) going 8-1 against BE opponents. Their OER is 159 (2nd) and their DER is 197 (4th). Formidable. Georgia has trailed in 9 of their 13 games coming back to win 7 of them. Losses to Alabama (9-4) and Mississippi (9-3) nearly kept them out of the SEC championship and playoffs, but beating Texas (12-2) twice kept them in. For the season, they were 7-2 against BE teams. They have an OER of 153 (6th) and a DER of 146 (18th). Strong. Vegas has Georgia-1.0, but the GCR sees the better team as Notre Dame 52% and to cover.
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That’s it for today. Have a great 2025. Thank you for reading and sharing with others, G
| Time | Bowl (Location) | Team | Team | Vegas | GCR Win | GCR Cover |
| 1:00 | FBS QF Chick-fil-A Peach (Atlanta) | Texas (12-2/4) | Arizona St (11-2/9) | TEX-13.0 | TEX 55% | AZST |
| 5:00 | FBS QF Rose (Pasadena) | Ohio St (11-2/3) | Oregon (13-0/1) | OHST-2.5 | ORE 51% | ORE |
| 8:45 | FBS QF Allstate Sugar (New Orleans) | Notre Dame (12-1/2) | Georgia (11-2/6) | GEO-1.0 | ND 52% | ND |
