Welcome back sports fans. We had 3 games yesterday and the GCR was a sad 1-2 both against the spread and straight up. W Michigan (10-4/71) started 41-0 before Kennesaw St (10-4/58) finally scored – 41-6. NC St (8-5/36) ripped Memphis (8-5/63) in the Gasparilla Bowl 31-7 with all 38 points in the first half. In the first game of the FBS playoffs, Alabama (11-3/14) overcame a 17-0 early Oklahoma (10-3/13) lead to win 34-24 and possibly silence a few critics.
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Today we have the other 3 round 1 FBS games and the semifinals for the FCS. We will go in time order.
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The early game, at noon (all times Eastern), on ABC, we have the Miami FL Hurricanes (10-2/8) traveling to College Station, TX to face the Texas A&M Aggies (11-1/11). The Hurricanes started out 5-0 with wins over Notre Dame and Florida before dropping a home game to Louisville. Two weeks later they lost at SMU before ending the season on a 4-game streak. They ended up tied for 2nd in the ACC and, because of really not well thought out tie-breaking rules, did not make the conference final (7-5 Duke did). Now they face Texas A&M who won their first 11 before dropping the final game to rival Texas. The controversy for the Aggies is they played a ridiculously light schedule. Out of conference games against UTSA (6-6/83), Utah St (6-6/82), and FCS Samford (1-11/265 – yes, last in the GCR) are not completely offset by the win at Notre Dame (10-2/6). The SEC slate ended up being less than stellar with games against Auburn (1-7 in conference), Mississippi St (1-7), Florida (2-6), Arkansas (0-8), LSU (3-5), Missouri (4-4), South Carolina (1-7), and Texas (6-2). But both of these teams played and beat Notre Dame, so we have a decent comparison. A&M (game played September 13th) won in South Bend 41-40 on a TD/XP with just 13 seconds to go. MIAF won at home 27-24 on a field goal with 1:08 to go. Since this is the controversy game, we at the GCR think the official reason that the Hurricanes were the last team in over Notre Dame because of the head-to-head game is not the true reason. We think with Duke beating a 10-win but not very strong Virginia in the ACC Championship game, the ACC was facing being left out of the playoffs completely. We think the committee felt a Core 4 conference being left out was more controversial than Notre Dame being left out. Vegas has TAM-3.5 and the GCR agrees 54.5% and to cover.
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Our next game is a rematch which can be seen on TNT at 3:30. The Tulane Green Wave (11-2/38) will travel back to Oxford, MS to face the Mississippi Rebels (11-1/10). When they met on September 20th, the Green Wave was 3-0 but lost 45-10. They recovered and won their next 3 before an upset loss to UTSA. A 4-0 November led to the American Conference Championship game against North Texas, which Tulane dispatched 34-21. They were considered the top Group of 5 team and were awarded the G5 playoff spot. Mississippi’s only loss was in Athens against eventual SEC Champ Georgia by a score of 43-35. They had close calls against Kentucky (30-23) and Washington St (24-21) but won comfortably the rest of the way. Vegas likes MISS-17.5 and, while the entire staff at the GCR hopes for the upset, the GCR numbers agree with Vegas 75.0% and to cover.
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Our 4:00, featured on ABC, is another rematch for a FCS finals berth. This one is the top teams from the Big Sky Conference as the Montana Grizzlies (13-1/128) head to Bozeman to face their archrival; the Montana St Bobcats (12-2/132). Montana started the season 11-0 before dropping the rival game November 22nd. In the playoffs the beat South Dakota St (50-29) and South Dakota (52-22), both at home, following a first round bye. The semifinal will be their first playoff road test. Montana St dropped their first game at Oregon (59-13) and their second at home against South Dakota St before winning their next 10 to finish the regular season. Both of their playoff games, after a bye, were also at home with victories over Yale (21-13) and Steph F Austin (44-28). Vegas likes MTST-5.5, but the GCR is picking the upset with MONT 52.0% and to cover.
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There are two games at 7:30 so let’s stay with the FCS for now in the other semifinal today. The Illinois St Redbirds (11-4/162) are heading to Pennsylvania to play the Villanova Wildcats (12-2/143). The Redbirds, tied for 3rd in the Missouri Valley Conference, started the season with a 35-3 loss at Oklahoma before winning their next 3. They went 2-2 in October losing to conference foes (and playoff teams) North Dakota St and Youngstown St. An upset loss in November to S Illinois gave them a 3-1 mark that month for the regular season. They did not receive a bye so played round 1 at Southeastern and won 21-3. In round 2 they played at North Dakota St in that rematch, scored 15 points in the last two minutes and won 29-28. Then they played at UC Davis and won 42-31. Clearly the Cinderella of the FCS this year, they now face their 4th straight road opponent in Villanova. After beating Colgate in week 1, the Wildcats lost to Penn St and Monmouth before winning out the rest of the season. Also not receiving a bye, they beat Harvard at home in round 1, Lehigh on the road in round 2, and Tarleton on the road in round 3 before returning home. This game will be on ESPN2 and deserves some time to watch. Vegas had ILST-2.5, but the GCR hears the clock chiming midnight with VILL winning 54.0% of the time and to cover.
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Our final game has some controversy as well. The Sun Belt Champion James Madison Dukes (12-1/20) will travel to Eugene to take on the Oregon Ducks (11-1/4), 3rd in the Big Ten. JMU’s only loss came on September 5th at Louisville (28-14). They swept through the Sun Belt schedule and beat Troy 31-14 in the title game. Their best win was a 63-17 thrashing of Old Dominion (10-3/40) and played 8 bowl eligible teams. Oregon’s only loss came against 13-0 Indiana, at home, 30-20. Their beat three GCR Top 30 teams: Southern Cal, Iowa, and Washington and played 7 bowl eligible teams. The controversy is based on a series of comments by ESPN commentators who complained in various ways about not just one but two Group of 5 teams in the playoffs. See the next paragraph for the GCR sidebar on this topic. Their real complaint, unspoken mostly, is that Notre Dame was left out and James Madison was in. We cannot tell you how much we want James Madison to win – not only are they an underdog and who doesn’t like underdogs, but I would like to hear the 180 from those guys if the upset does happen. Vegas does not make that seem likely though with ORE-21.5 and the GCR numbers support that with ORE 72.5% and to cover. You can watch this game on TNT.
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Every single one of these games are worth watching and we expect there to be a lot of good football from ten groups of really good players. The comments by ESPN including the complaints that a second group of 5 team is in over Notre Dame or Nick Saban’s remarkedly insulting comment comparing James Madison to a AAA team playing in the World Series drive home the point that these guys have lost touch with what college sports is about. We quit watching Game Day and reading most football articles by ESPN during the 2024 season because they only talked about the elite teams as if the other 260 teams were irrelevant to the game. Look at their locations this season and who was playing. Notre Dame chose not to play a bowl game and people are upset – we are too. But they have been told all season long on ESPN that the playoff is the only thing that matters. Now they’ve added that only the teams they determine are elite are the only teams that matter. Professional football is about the elite squads, the playoffs (there is nothing else), win or go home type mentality. College sports are about the competition, the underdog, the small school getting the occasional upset over the big school. It’s about the players, conference bragging rights, and ultimately the bowl games. 82 of the 136 FBS teams play in a bowl (or playoff) game. This is where the focus should be. Yes, the playoffs are important and yes, the winner gets the National Champion title. But there are champions of bowl games that get trophies to put in their cases and gear and bragging rights and pride. At least there was until ESPN and other media became so focused on the playoff – the professional style elite – that the essence of the college football postseason became an afterthought. We see the results not only in the comments and attitude, but also in attendance at the non-playoff bowls. I thought ESPN was about the sport – regardless of sport, regardless of level, but the Game Day team continues to push NFL ideals to the collegiate level. It is hurtful to the sport. This concept is why we are rooting for EVERY underdog this FBS playoff season, especially the G5 teams. If we could have a holiday wish, it would be Tulane and James Madison for the championship just to remind everyone that the game, the players, the play are important not just the name on the side of the helmet.
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That’s it for today. We thank you for reading and, especially in helping us spread the GCR to others. Tune in Monday for two episodes: the women’s top 363 and the preview of the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, JoJo and G
