Happy Wednesday from Lonoke, Arkansas where we’ve stopped for lunch on the way home. Let’s talk about yesterday and its craziness first: UCLA dropped out of the Holiday Bowl mere hours before they were supposed to kickoff against NC St, so we have yet another cancellation involving an ACC team (at least one was the other team that cancelled). At least San Diego is a great place to visit (I got to go for the first time earlier this year – it is worth the trip). But, hold the phone because Miami FL dropped out of the Sun Bowl vs Washington St, but C Michigan will replace the Hurricanes giving us a 6th G5/P5 game prior to the Cotton Bowl. Could the streak continue? Let’s look at the games that were played on Tuesday. But before we do, let’s take a moment of silence for the passing of John Madden, who is known as a player/coach/broadcaster for the NFL, but who played his college games at (now FCS) Cal Poly. Rest in Peace.
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In the Birmingham Bowl, Group of 5 member Houston 12-2 (21) got the GCR upset against SEC member Auburn 6-7 (42), loser of their last 5, 17-13. The game was close throughout with Auburn taking a 3rd quarter lead with the momentum, but the Cougars scored the only 4Q points with 3:27 to go and Auburn couldn’t get the TD. That put the Group of 5 at 4-0 over Power 5 schools.
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The First Responder Bowl featured run happy (best in the nation) Air Force 10-3 (36) who went to the air (252 yards) in a surprise attack to upend Louisville 6-7 (58) in a second GCR upset of the day and giving the G5 a 5-0 lead over P5 schools. The Cardinals kept it close, but the Falcons owned the game from the kickoff. The best fan sign of the year: our bird is better than yours.
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In a “nobody saw that coming” Liberty Bowl, Texas Tech 7-6 (48) demolished Mississippi St 7-6 (51) behind 512 yards of balanced offense and 3 turnovers, 34-7. They led end to end and won the second half 21-0. The Big 12 started their bowl season with an unexpected win and the SEC fell to 0-4 this postseason, but at least this loss was against another P5 team.
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In the nightcap, the Guaranteed Rate Bowl gave us Minnesota 9-4 (37) and West Virginia 6-7 (65) with the Gophers winning 18-6. West Virginia allowed 249 yards rushing and a 38-22 minute deficit in time of possession. We didn’t expect a lot of points in this game, and they certainly delivered. With the two GCR upsets, I have a 15-8 record and Vegas is 14-9. Here are the current standings:
| Conference | Bowls | Bowl Change | Overall Record | vs Power 5 Record | vs Group of 5 Record |
| American | 4 | -3 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| ACC | 6 | -4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Big 12 | 7 | N/C | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Big Ten | 10 | +1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| C-USA | 8 | N/C | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3-5 |
| Indies | 4 | N/C | 2-1 | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| MAC | 8 | -1 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-5 |
| Mtn West | 6 | -2 | 5-1 | 2-0 | 3-1 |
| Pac-12 | 5 | -1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| SEC | 12 | -1 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Sun Belt | 4 | N/C | 3-1 | 0-0 | 3-1 |
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Today brings us 3 games (the inaugural Fenway Bowl was Covided). In the Pinstripe Bowl out of Yankee Stadium, we have Maryland 6-6 (49) of the Big Ten facing Virginia Tech 6-6 (86) of the ACC. The game kicked off at 2:15 (all times Eastern) and Maryland already has a 7-0 lead. When the Terps have the ball, you can expect an OER (Offensive Efficiency Rating) of 114 (they score 11.4 points for every 10 their opponents normally surrender) and will face a good Hokie DER (Defensive) of 130 (they allow 10 points for every 13.0 their opponents score) – 41st in the nation. When Tech has the ball, they bring an OER of just 92 and will be “challenged” with a Maryland DER of 84. Expect Tech to stay close, but Vegas has Maryland -4.5 and the GCR agrees 61.2%.
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With a 5:45 kickoff, the Cheez-It Bowl out of Orlando pits Iowa St 7-5 (41) of the Big 12 and Clemson 9-3 (18) of the ACC. The Tigers haven’t had the season they expected and with rare coaching losses, they may not be prepared for this game that on paper should be easy. When Iowa St has the ball they bring an OER of 125 (39th) and will face a 4th ranked Tiger DER of 195. Points will be hard to come by. When Clemson has the ball an OER of 105 will face a Cyclone DER of 137 (33rd). Again, don’t expect a lot of points. Vegas has Clemson by a small margin -1.5, and the GCR agrees 66.7%.
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In the finale, we have the Alamo Bowl featuring Oregon 10-3 (17) of the Pac-12 and Oklahoma 10-2 (13) of the Big 12. When Oregon has the ball they bring an OER of 128 (34th) and will face a DER of 116 (79th). When the Sooners take possession, an OER of 137 (21st) will clash with a DER of 111 (96th). This one should see lots of scoring and look like a basketball score by the end. Vegas things the Sooners win by a TD -7.0 and the GCR agrees 58.1%. That’s it for the day. See you tomorrow. G
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