G’s Expectation or I Hope You Don’t Like Green Grass

Welcome back to the GCR. Let’s talk about the elephant in the room. 1) the first round of the playoffs was a bust with all 4 games being double-digit wins for the home teams (and no, blowouts are not uncommon in the BCS and playoff eras), 2) Lane Kiffin was very vocal about Indiana, SMU, and Clemson not belonging in the playoffs, but got really quiet when Tennessee laid an egg, and 3) arguing over who should have made the playoffs (and it was not Mississippi, let’s be really clear, with losses to Kentucky and Florida) is beyond moot at this point of the season. The fact is the committee did a decent job. They appeared to place number of wins higher in importance than strength of schedule. They appeared to make brand more important than it should be. In reality, the playoff could expand to 16 or 24 or 64 and someone deserving will be left out (see basketball trying to expand to 96 teams or something ridiculous), that team will be angry or upset, and the committee will be blamed for something whether it be bias, lack of transparency, or just place ignorance of the game.

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The FCS played their semifinals on Saturday and, quite frankly, were better games to watch. Especially the rematch of the Dakota States. North beat South again and will meet Montana St, who is one game away from perfection, in Frisco, TX for the title January 6th at 7:00 (all times Eastern). My humble opinion is that all 4 of the teams in the semi-finals (MTST beat South Dakota) are ready to move up to the FBS, either in the Mountain West or the MAC. They would compete in both immediately.

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Going into today’s games, the GCR is now 12-2 (.857) straight up (I missed Florida and North Dakota St winning) and 9-5 (.643) against the spread. Here is the updated standing chart for the FBS post-season.

ConfTotal GamesWinsLossesPoints ScoredPoints AllowedGCR RatingGCR Rank
IND31027170.9231
SEC142188740.7252
Big Ten142197540.7063
MWC51024130.6964
SUN82183710.6035
MAC71153570.5306
AAC81150700.5127
USA41275830.3888
ACC 1303471000.3709
B1290137420.31910
P12100000.20011

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We have 2 games on the docket today which lead to the reference in the title of this episode. First, on the Teal Field of Coastal Carolina, in the last post-season game with a team playing on their home turf, in Conway, SC (about 15 miles from the coast), with a ridiculous 11:00am kickoff, in the Myrtle Beach Bowl, the Chanticleers (teal-colored roosters) of Coastal Carolina (6-6/105) face the UTSA (6-6/100) Roadrunners (who in reality are much smaller and slower than coyotes). The Sun Belt East’s 5th place team got off to a 3-0 start before losing to Core 4 Virginia and 4 bowl-bound SUN teams. They also had a not so good loss to Troy (4-8). On the plus side, they took down Conference USA champion Jacksonville St (9-5) early in the season. Overall, CCAR was 1-4 against bowl bound teams. UTSA (7th in the American) started really slowly. Traditionally not the strongest of teams, they have shown a lot of promise the last few seasons. They did overcome that 2-4 opening to earn the bowl despite losses to Rice (4-8) and Tulsa (3-9) by beating Memphis (11-2) in the penultimate game. 2-4 versus bowl bound teams is not differentiating. Vegas likes UTSA-13.5 despite being the de facto away team. The GCR sees them winning 53% but the Chanticleers will cover on the home teal.

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At 2:30 on Boise’s blue field, we have the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl featuring the MAC’s 7th place N Illinois Huskies (7-5/91) and the Mountain West’s 4th place Fresno St Bulldogs (6-6/109). Of course, the upset of the year was in week 2 when NILL took down Notre Dame (12-1). They did lose their next two games though. In fact, the Huskies won 2, lost 2, won 2, lost 2, won 2, lost 1, won 1 going 3-4 vs bowl eligible teams. To counter that upset, they lost to Ball St (3-9). I watched that game and it was ugly. Fresno St lost to 3 5-7 teams (Hawaii, Air Force, and UCLA) which made the difference between 6-6 and 9-3. They also didn’t have a marquee win with Colorado St (8-4) trying to hit that mark. The Bulldogs also were streaky losing their first game, then winning 3, losing 2, winning 2, losing 2, winning 1, and losing 1. Vegas has NILL-3.5 and the GCR agrees 56% and to cover.

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That’s it in this non-green grass episode. No, your TV does not need adjusting. Tune in tomorrow as we preview the annual Christmas Eve Hawai’i Bowl. Thank you for reading and sharing with others, G

TimeBowl (Location)TeamTeamVegasGCR WinGCR Cover
11:00amMyrtle Beach
(Conway, SC)
Coastal Carolina (6-6/105)UTSA
(6-6/100)
UTSA-13.5UTSA 53%CCAR
2:30Famous Idaho Potato (Boise)N Illinois
(7-5/91)
Fresno St
(6-6/109)
NILL-3.5NILL 56%NILL

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