Welcome to day 15 of the bowl season and the last non-championship games of this campaign. Happy New Year from the GCR to any and all readers whether you see us directly from this website, Facebook, Twitter, email, or however you find my paltry attempt at blogging. Before we shift to 2023, let’s recap the New Year’s Eve games. The early games were blowouts with Alabama destroying Kansas St 45-20 in the Sugar Bowl after taking an 11-point halftime advantage and winning the 3rd quarter 21-3. In what had to be the most defensive bowl in the history of bowldom, the Music City Bowl between Iowa and Kentucky generated just a single offensive TD while Iowa padded their score with 2 interception return touchdowns: Iowa 21-0 in a game with just 391 combined yards (as a comparison, both Alabama and Kansas St had more than 400 – each).
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In the Fiesta Bowl, TCU, who wasn’t “supposed” to be in the playoffs, and, interestingly enough, the first team from Texas to make the playoff, jumped to a 14-0 lead after 15 minutes of play, one of those scores was a pick six. The Wolverines were driving as the clock wound down and got on the board with a 42-yard field goal early in the 2nd. TCU added another TD and looked like the momentum to blow out Michigan, until the half expired with a Wolverine record 59-yard field goal. It’s 21-6 at the half, but, if you were watching the game you’ll know, Michigan finally had some energy. The two teams combined for 44 points in the 3rd quarter alone, Michigan winning the frame 24-20, but the Horned Frogs holding a 41-30 lead going into the 4th quarter. Again, the Wolverines finished a drive early in the quarter, but this time with a TD and a 2-point conversion – 41-38. The Frogs took the winds out of the sails with a 76-yard catch and run about a minute later and tacked on a field goal with just over 10 minutes to play – 51-38. There was no quit from the Big Ten team as they finished all scoring with a short pass with just 3:18 to play. Final score: 51-45, the 20th one-score game of this bowl season.
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In our second semifinal, Ohio St (who “shouldn’t” be in the playoff) and Georgia met in the Peach Bowl. After the 1st quarter the score was 7-7, but Ohio St looked more prepared for the game, IMHO. The second frame was just nuts. Ohio St scored two TDs in the first 4:04 jumping to a 21-7 lead. About a minute later, the Bulldogs ran it in to bring the score within 7. With 6:07 to play, the Dawgs tied the game at 21 only to take the lead with under 2 minutes to play with a short field goal. Ohio St scored on a 37-yard pass exactly 1 minute later and after a 38-point 2nd quarter, the Buckeyes enjoyed a 28-24 halftime lead. The third quarter belonged to the Buckeyes who scored 10 more to take a 38-24 lead into the 4th. No playoff team had ever overcome that big a deficit, so it looked like a double upset in the playoffs. Georgia’s drive stalled at the 10:19 mark so they settled for a FG – 38-27. After forcing a quick punt, the Bulldogs took advantage of a Buckeye corner slipping in man-to-man coverage with a 76-yard catch and run. The receiver was so open that when he caught the pass he looked like the only player on the field. A 2-point conversion made it 38-35 with 8:41 to go. Both defenses played well for a bit before a Buckeye drive got close enough for a 48-yard FG with just 2:49 to play – 41-38. Georgia quickly, but steadily drove the field before a 10-yard reception tied the score with 54 seconds left. The extra point was true, and Georgia regained the lead 42-41. Ohio St had time and a 27-yard scramble put them just inside the FG zone. A loss of one and two incomplete passes later and they line up for a game-winning 50-yard FG attempt with just 0:08 on the clock. In a moment of pure synchronicity, the kick went up and wide left and the announcer said “no good” at the exact stroke of midnight. Happy New Year, Georgia who took a knee as their first play in 2023 to run out the final 3 seconds.
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It was a bad day for the Big Ten who finally got two teams in the playoffs (only the SEC had done that previously) but came up short in both games. The championship game will be played January 9th – more to come on that. Here are all the winners and losers below:
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| Conference | Winners | Losers | Remaining |
| American (7) | Houston, Memphis, East Carolina | Cincinnati, SMU, UCF | Tulane |
| ACC (9) | Louisville, Wake Forest, Duke, Florida St, Pittsburgh | UNC, Syracuse, NC St, Clemson | — |
| Big 12 (9) | Texas Tech, TCU | Baylor, Oklahoma St, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas St | TCU |
| Big Ten (9) | Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maryland, Iowa | Michigan, Ohio St | Illinois, Purdue, Penn St |
| C-USA (6) | UAB, W Kentucky, Middle Tennessee | UTSA, Rice, North Texas | — |
| Indies (5) | BYU, New Mexico St, Notre Dame | UCONN, Liberty | — |
| MAC (6) | E Michigan, Toledo, Buffalo, Ohio | Miami OH, Bowling Green | — |
| MWC (7) | Fresno St, Boise St, Air Force | San Jose St, San Diego St, Utah St, Wyoming | — |
| Pac 12 (7) | Oregon St, Oregon, Washington | Washington St, UCLA | Southern Cal, Utah |
| SEC (11) | Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia | Florida, Missouri, Mississippi, South Carolina, Kentucky | Mississippi St, LSU, Georgia |
| Sun (7) | Troy, Southern Miss, Marshall | South Alabama, Louisiana, Ga Southern, Coastal Carolina | — |
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And the wonderful detail behind those winners/losers:
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| Conference | Record | Exp Rec | vs Power 5 | vs Group 5 | Favorite | Underdog | Vegas ATS | GCR S/U | GCR Cover |
| American (7) | 3-3 (.500) | 4-3 (.571) | 0-2 (.000) | 3-1 (.750) | 3-1 (.750) | 0-2 (.000) | 2-1-1 (.667) | 2-2 (.500 | 0-1 (.000) |
| ACC (9) | 5-4 (.556) | 5-4 (.556) | 3-4 (.429) | 2-0 (1.000) | 4-2 (.667) | 1-2 (.333) | 3-3 (.500) | 3-2 (.600) | 3-2 (.600) |
| Big 12 (9) | 2-6 (.250) | 2-7 (.222) | 1-5 (.167) | 0-1 (000) | 0-2 (000) | 2-4 (.333) | 0-2 (.000) | 0-1 (.000) | 0-1 (.000) |
| Big Ten (9) | 4-2 (.667) | 6-3 (.667) | 4-2 (.667) | — | 3-1 (.750) | 1-1 (.500) | 2-2 (.500) | 2-1 (.667) | 1-2 (.333) |
| C-USA (6) | 3-3 (.500) | 2-4 (.333) | — | 3-3 (.500) | 1-1 (.500) | 2-2 (.500) | 0-2 (.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-1 (.500) |
| Indies (5) | 3-2 (.600) | 1-4 (.200) | 1-0 (1.000) | 2-2 (.500) | 1-0 (1.000) | 2-2 (.500) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-1 (.500) | 3-1 (.750) |
| MAC (6) | 4-2 (.667) | 3-3 (.500) | — | 4-2 (.667) | 2-1 (.667) | 2-1 (.667) | 1-2 (.333) | 3-1 (.750) | 4-1 (.800) |
| MWC (7) | 3-4 (.429) | 4-3 (.571) | 2-0 (1.000) | 1-4 (.200) | 2-2 (.500) | 1-2 (.333) | 1-3 (.2503) | 3-1 (.750) | 2-2 (.500) |
| Pac 12 (7) | 3-2 (.600) | 5-2 (.714) | 3-1 (.750) | 0-1 (000) | 2-1 (.667) | 1-1 (.500) | 1-2 (.333) | 3-1 (.750) | 2-1 (.667) |
| SEC (11) | 4-5 (.444) | 6-6 (.500) | 4-5 (.444) | — | 3-1 (.750) | 1-4 (.200) | 1-3 (.250) | 3-1 (.750) | 2-3 (.400) |
| Sun (7) | 3-4 (.429) | 4-3 (.571) | — | 3-4 (.429) | 2-2 (.500) | 1-2 (.500) | 2-2 (.667) | 3-2 (.600) | 1-2-1 (.333) |
| Total | 37 | 42 | 18-18 (.500) | 18-18 (.500) | 23-14 (.622) | 14-23 (.378) | 14-22-1 (.389) | 24-13 (.649) | 19-17-1 (.528) |
| Power 5 (45) | 19-19 (.500) | 26-23 (.531) | 16-16 (.500) | 2-2 (.500) | 13-7 (.650) | 6-12 (.333) | 8-12 (.400) | 12-6 (.667) | 9-9 (.500) |
| Group of 5 (37) | 18-18 (.500) | 17-20 (.459) | 2-2 (.500) | 16-16 (.500) | 10-7 (.588) | 8-11 (.421) | 6-10-1 (.375) | 12-7 (.632) | 10-8-1 (.556) |
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21 close games out of 37 is more than we could expect and I’m hoping more today. We have 4 great looking games today starting with the ReliaQuest (used to be the Outback) Bowl, kicking off at noon (all times Eastern) from Tampa, and featuring Mississippi St (8-4/20) of the SEC and Illinois (8-4/25) of the Big Ten. State’s head coach, Mike Leach, died of a massive heart attack just a couple of weeks ago and teams have been honoring him and his legacy throughout the bowl season. “Mike” with a cowbell (Mississippi St’s signature noisemaker for all sporting events) in place of the “i”, is painted on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers field. The venue is also appropriate since Leach was a big fan of pirates. In the game itself, when the Bulldogs, who played the 16th most difficult schedule in the country, have the ball, they bring a high-powered offense with an OER of 127, good for 35th out of 261, which means they score 12.7 points for every 10 points their opponents normally allow. They will face a very stingy Illini DER of 199 (2nd against the 61st most difficult schedule), which means they give up 10 points for every 19.9 points their opponents normally score. On the flip side, Illinois brings a slightly above average OER of 111 (87th) vs a MSST DER of 126 (51st). I think it will be close and I know it will be emotional for Mississippi St, where my daughter is a student (4.0 – very proud dad moment!). Vegas has the Bulldogs -3.0 in a low-scoring game (over/under is just 45.5), but the GCR has Illinois pulling it out by a razor’s edge 58.5% and to cover.
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Our first 1:00 game, the Cotton Bowl out of Arlington, TX will bring our final Group of 5 participant, Tulane (11-2/16) of the American against Southern Cal (11-2/8) of the Pac 12 in the first of two NY6 games today. This is the 5th bowl between a Power 5 team and a Group of 5 team which is split 2-2. The Mountain West is 2-0 against the Power 5 with wins over the Pac 12’s Washington St (Fresno St 29-6 in the Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl) and the Big 12’s Baylor (Air Force 30-15 in the Armed Forces Bowl). The ACC picked up the 2 Power 5 wins, both against American Conference foes Cincinnati (Louisville 24-7 in the Fenway Bowl) and UCF (Duke 30-13 in the Military Bowl). When the Green Wave are on offense, they bring a respectable OER of 126 (38th) against the 88th most difficult schedule. They will be facing a mediocre Southern Cal DER of 105 (109th) against the 52nd most difficult schedule. The high-powered Trojans will drive with an OER of 148 (9th) but will face a solid Tulane DER of 134 (32nd). Vegas has SCAL -2.5 and the GCR agrees 66.0% and to cover.
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Also, at 1:00 in Orlando’s Citrus Bowl, LSU (9-4/18) of the SEC takes on Purdue (8-5/38) of the Big Ten in a matchup of championship game losers. Purdue won the Big Ten West that no one wanted to win and LSU beat Alabama late in the season (before losing to Texas A&M) to win the SEC West. The Tigers bring an OER of 137 (20th with the 12th most difficult schedule) and should overpower the Purdue DER of 105 (114th with the 38th most difficult schedule). The flip side is much more even with the Boilermakers OER of 126 (39th) vs an LSU DER of 134 (32nd). Vegas sees LSU winning big -14.5 and the GCR agrees with the win at 62.5% but expect Purdue to keep it a little closer and to cover.
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Our final non-championship game from Pasadena is the Rose Bowl pitting Penn St (10-2/7) of the Big Ten against the Pac-12’s Utah (10-3/17) in the second NY6 game of the day. This game was first played 121 years ago giving it the nickname “the granddaddy of them all.” Penn St’s only two losses were to playoff teams: 41-17 to Michigan and 44-31 to Ohio St. Utah had 3 road losses against bowl-bound teams: Florida 29-26 in week 1, UCLA 42-32, and Oregon 20-17. They beat Southern Cal twice including the Pac-12 championship game. When the Nittany Lions are under center, they bring an OER of 142 (14th in the nation against the 35th most difficult schedule) while Utah’s DER of 148 (20th vs the 62nd most difficult schedule) will try to stop them. When the Utes are driving, an OER of 138 (18th) will face a PSU DER of 152 (17th). Vegas likes Utah by the slimmest of margins -0.5, but the GCR thinks the Penn St offense will prevail 69.6% and to cover.
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That’s it for today. The summary is below. I hope you had a wonderful and safe New Year’s Eve. Here’s wishing you the best for 2023 and, if you are not in the best place right now, or if you are struggling, remember, this too shall pass. Until next time, thank you for reading and sharing with others, G
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| Away | Conf Rec | Home | Conf Rec | Vegas | GCR | To Cover |
| 12:00 | January 2, 2023 | ReliaQuest Bowl | Tampa | |||
| Mississippi St (8-4/20) | SEC (4-4) | Illinois (8-4/25) | Big Ten (5-4) | MSST -3.0 | ILL 58.5% | ILL |
| 1:00 | Cotton Bowl | Arlington, TX | ||||
| Tulane (11-2/16) | AAC (8-1) | Southern Cal (11-2/8) | Pac 12 (8-2) | SCAL -2.5 | SCAL 66.0% | SCAL |
| 1:00 | Citrus Bowl | Orlando | ||||
| LSU (9-4/18) | SEC (6-3) | Purdue (8-5/38) | Big Ten (6-4) | LSU -14.5 | LSU 62.5% | PUR |
| 5:00 | Rose Bowl | Pasadena | ||||
| Penn St (10-2/7) | Big Ten (7-2) | Utah (10-3/17) | Pac 12 (8-2) | UTAH -0.5 | PSU 69.6% | PSU |
