Good morning and Happy New Year’s Eve! Before we start with the party that is college football today, let’s look back at yesterday. I have to admit, I’m pretty stoked with the GCR this post-season. 4-0 yesterday (thanks to a bunch of confusion at the end of the game between the Westerns, and 12 out of the last 13 brings us to 20-5 or 80% accuracy!! I could miss the rest of the FBS bowl season including the championship and still be .500. That would be sad so let’s keep this going, shall we?
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As a reminder and as a new comparative statistic, for the Power 5 schools, the average OffEff is 114.5 and DefEff is 126.6 (updated through yesterday’s games). The new stat is the average ranking for P5 schools is 48.2. For the Group of 5, the respective numbers are 99.2, 102.4, and 106.8. The worst ranked team to play today is Georgia State (90), but they are still nearly 17 spots above average. Every other team is in the top 52 so today should be a series of good quality games.
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There are 5 games on the slate today starting at noon (all times Eastern) when Kentucky (46, 7-5, 4th in the SEC East) takes on the Hokies of Virginia Tech (44, 8-4, 2nd in the ACC Coastal) in the Belk Bowl (Charlotte). The Wildcats faced 9 6+win teams and 2 10+win opponents, going 0-2 against the top 25. Their opponents to date combined for a 77-72 mark. The Hokies only faced 1 top 25 team losing to UVA (they also faced current #26 Notre Dame), but faced 8 teams with 6 or more and 1 team (Notre Dame) with double digits. Their schedule is a tad weaker, but certainly in the same grouping, with the combined record of 74-78. When Kentucky is on offense they will attack with a less than average 101 OffEff against a similarly less than average Tech defense (116). When the teams switch sides, the Virginia Tech offense, at barely above average 116 will have to work hard against an above average Kentucky defense rated at 143. Vegas likes the Hokies -2.5 and the GCR is as close to down the middle as it can be. I’m calling Virginia Tech in a down-to-the-wire, maybe even OT, game, at a whopping 50.01% (yes, I added the extra significant digit there).
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The second game of the day pits Florida State (40, 6-6, 4th in the ACC Atlantic) with Arizona State (35, 7-5, 4th in the Pac-12 South) in El Paso’s Sun Bowl kicking off at 2:00. FSU played the 3rd most difficult schedule so far (behind South Carolina and Auburn) facing teams that went 93-60. 0-3 against the top 25, they faced 8 good (my new term for 6+ win teams) and 3 great (ditto for 10+wins) teams. Arizona State fared better against the top 25 splitting 4 games. They faced 8 good and 2 great teams during the season and dealt with opponents who were 85-67. The Sun Devils, do have some issues. Their offense is a paltry 93 OffEff which means they would struggle except that the Seminole’s DefEff is underwhelming at 109. At least FSU’s offense is below average at 110 (that was sarcasm). They will face a barely above average 129 DefEff. Vegas has Arizona State -4.5 and I agree. Sun Devils 56.4%.
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In a day of overlapping games the Liberty Bowl (Memphis) kicks off at 3:45. Spoiler Alert, this is the upset of the day. Let’s see why. Kansas State (17, 8-4, 5th in the Big 12) takes on Navy (52, 10-2, 2nd in the American West). Navy beat Air Force in its only game against the top 25, but only faced 6 good teams, but 4 of them were great. Kansas State was 0-3 against the top 25, faced 7 good and just 2 great, although they did beat Oklahoma. Their opponents’ schedules were almost identical (Wildcats 80-72, Midshipman 80-71). Navy, with the wishbone, has a good OffEff at 136 but will face a solid DefEff with State’s 137. State has a below average offense at 107 which will fight against a 132 Navy DefEff. Vegas likes Navy -3.0, but I think the Big 12 will get it’s first bowl win of the year 61.6%.
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Around halftime (4:30), the Arizona Bowl played in Tucson will be kicking off with Georgia State (90, 7-5, 3rd in the Sun Belt East) and Wyoming (50, 7-5, 4th in the Mountain West Mountain) fighting it out. Both teams were 0-1 against top 25 teams. Both teams beat FBS teams. Both teams played 6 good teams. State played 1 great (App State) team and the Cowboys (you know, the ones actually playing a post-season game – that’s for you Stevo), played 3. Their overall opponent records are almost identical (Panthers 75-76, Wyoming 75-74). This is a game between two G5 schools where we see strength on strength and weakness on weakness. State has an above average 114 OffEff and will face a seriously good Wyoming defense rated at 145. But Wyoming is not an offensive team with a below average 87 OffEff. That’s ok because the Panthers are below average on defense at 81. Vegas says Wyoming -7.0 and I agree. Cowboys 59.8%.
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Just as that game is ending, we travel, virtually, to San Antonio and the Alamo Bowl. Texas (12, 7-5, 4th in the Big 12) will take on Utah (16, 11-2, Pac-12 Runner up). Both teams had some success against top 25 teams with the Utes going 2-0 and the Longhorns going 1-2. Each team faced 7 good teams, but Texas had 4 double digit win opponents while Utah had just 1. That leads into Utah’s below average opponents record (81-81) vs the Texas 90-62, good for 9th in the country. When Utah has the ball, they will bring their slightly above average 121 offense against a below average 109 Texas defense. Expect Utah to score. Texas has an above average offense at 135, but will face a great defense (5th in the nation) at 212. Vegas sees this and has Utah -7.0. I concur: Utah 54.1%
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Thanks again for reading and sharing with others. See you tonight or in the morning for the first 4 football games of 2020.
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G
