It’s finally here, college football fans. The culmination of this strange season and a match up of the only remaining undefeated teams. This abbreviated post is all about the prediction, but before we get there here’s a tale of the tape:
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As a reminder, OER is the offensive effectiveness rating calculated by comparing on a game by game basis how a team scored versus that opponent’s average opponent. For example: if a team normally gives up 20 points a game, and “your” team scores 20 against them, they would have an OER (for that game) of 100. More than 100 means they score more than others did. The DER (or defensive) is based on the same thing. If “your” team gives up 17.0 per game and the opponent scored 17, the rating would be 100. More than 100 means giving up less than the average. Expect the offenses to do well tonight, compared to the average defense for the other. Marry that with the DER where there is a bit of an advantage for Alabama and we kind of see where the game could go. Do the math (I already did it for you) and we can expect a score something like 36-32 give or take a bunch. Either way, Vegas likes the Crimson Tide -8.5 and the GCR likes them as well 55.8%.
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Enjoy the game and be safe out there, G
