G’s Expectation or It’s Crunch Time

Welcome back, college football fans. I have to apologize for such the short Evaluation. Between going to the Chattanooga/Furman game and picking up a touch of bronchitis or something, the normal G energy wasn’t there. I completely forgot to congratulate and commiserate with milestone teams.

….

First congratulations to Sam Houston who despite the fact that they were outstatted (I just coined that word) in just about every conceivable category beat Oregon St 21-17 thanks to returning the second half opening kickoff and a late punt block for TDs. Because of their special teams, every FBS team now has at least one victory this season. Go Bearkats!

…..

We also added 10 teams to the bowl-eligible list bringing the total to 60 out of the 82 required to fill the bowl games including the playoffs. The new teams are Arizona, California, Coastal Carolina, East Carolina, Iowa St, Jacksonville St, Missouri St (see below), New Mexico, Ohio, and Wake Forest. Congratulations to all. The Bears of Missouri St are in their first year as an FBS team so will only qualify if there are not enough teams without them. So, technically they win out at 9-3. They are not supposed to be eligible for the C-USA championship, but it is the CUSA and they go their own way sometimes. Let’s say they don’t, but there are 82 other teams with at least 6 wins. In that case, they would not get a bowl. A few years ago, James Madison qualified as a first-year team in the Sun Belt. I’m hoping that made the selectors more open to quality teams regardless of that transition status. If the Bears win out, they will be 7-1 in their new conference. I don’t care how long a team has been in a conference: 7-1 is hard and they should be rewarded. By the way, Delaware, also a first year FBS team in CUSA is 5-4 and could put even more pressure to let “rookies” play in bowl games. Speaking of 5-win teams, there are 22 currently out there with 3 weeks to go.

…..

As some teams rise, others, well, they just don’t. Eight new teams picked up the dreaded 7th loss, eliminating them from bowl consideration (there are exceptions, but it is pretty rare), bringing the “wait until next year” crew to 21. The new teams that will not be booking flights and hotels in December this week are Bowling Green, Colorado, Colorado St, N Illinois, Stanford, Syracuse, Tulsa, and UTEP. Nineteen additional teams are sitting on 6 losses.

…..

So, thank you for allowing me to correct the miss from Sunday. This is an Expectation that is focused on this week, not last week. Tonight, we have two MACNation games. If you haven’t watched any of these teams, do so tonight or tomorrow night when there are 3 games. You will not be disappointed. The rest of the season, these kids play in smaller stadiums (unless they are getting trounced for money in week 1) in front of smaller crowds (see paragraph above) and on ESPN+ (sometimes even with the paragraph above). In November, at least since 2000, the MAC gets its chance to shine playing on national television (still in a small stadium with a smallish crowd). Check them out.

…..

Last week the GCR prediction module picked the winner in games involving an FBS team 36 times out of 52 (.692) bringing the season totals to 419-163 (.720). In FCS vs FCS games, we went 49-13 (.786) raising the season to 336-134 (.715). That means picking the winner, or straight up, the GCR was a respectable 85-29 (.745) for a season total to 755-297 (.719). Against the spread or selecting the winner after adjusting for the Vegas points, we were back in the win column with a good 28-23 (.619) lifting the season to 261-243 (.518).

There are some really good games this week and all of them are listed on the table below. Find the games you like and take a few minutes to check out some that you may not have watched otherwise. Because it is a normal weekend (I am not going to see a game in person), I will watch at least a few minutes of 30+. My grandfather loved sports and would watch THE one game on tv while listening to another game on the radio. That was as high-tech as it got. Now we can watch almost as much as we want through split screens and multiple devices not to mention a dozen or so channels that have football games.

…..

Thank you for reading and sharing with others. We not only need your feedback, questions, and suggestions, but also your help in spreading readership. If you like what we do, share it. If not, tell us what we can do better so that we can improve, JoJo and G. With no further ado, here are all the games this week. I hope your team wins unless they are playing my team (yes, that’s to you, Bigly).

Time (Eastern)Away Team (Record/
GCR Rank)
Conf (Rec)Home Team (Record/
GCR Rank)
Conf (Rec)VegasGCR Win (nearest .5%)GCR CoverTV
ACC (17 teams) – Core 4
FRI 7:30Clemson (4-5/57)ACC (3-4)Louisville (7-2/17)ACC (4-2)LOU-3.5LOU 71.0%LOUESPN
12:00Notre Dame (7-2/5)IND (0-0)Pittsburgh (7-2/20)ACC (5-1)ND-11.5ND 50.5%PITTABC
3:30Virginia (8-2/16)ACC (5-2)Duke (5-4/43)ACC (4-1)DUKE-6.5VIR 61.0%VIRESPN2
3:30Georgia Tech (8-1/15)ACC (5-1)Boston College
(1-9/142)
ACC (0-6)GT-16.5GT 99.9%GTACCN
3:30NC St
(5-4/42)
ACC (3-3)Miami FL
(7-2/13)
ACC (3-2)MIAF-14.5MIAF 70.5%MIAFESPN
4:30North Carolina
(4-5/96)
ACC (2-3)Wake Forest (6-3/39)ACC (3-3)WAKE-6.5WAKE 68.5%WAKEThe CW
7:30Virginia Tech (3-6/102)ACC (2-3)Florida St
(4-5/61)
ACC (1-5)FSU-13.5FSU 68.0%FSUACCN
Idle – California (6-4/60), SMU (7-3/28), Stanford (3-7/99), Syracuse (3-7/105)
Big 12 (16 teams) – Core 4
12:00Kansas St
(4-5/53)
B12 (3-4)Oklahoma St (1-8/140)B12 (0-6)KSST-19.5KSST 78.5%KSSTESPNU
12:00Arizona (6-3/38)B12 (4-3)Cincinnati (7-2/23)B12 (5-1)CIN-6.5CIN 59.0%CINFS1
1:00West Virginia (4-6/80)B12 (2-5)Arizona St
(6-3/32)
B12 (4-2)AZST-11.5AZST 70.5%AZSTTNT
3:30UCF (4-5/71)B12 (1-5)Texas Tech
(9-1/3)
B12 (6-1)TXTC-24.5TXTC 90.0%TXTCFox
7:00Utah (7-2/6)B12 (4-2)Baylor (5-4/55)B12 (3-3)UTAH-7.5UTAH 68.0%UTAHESPN2
10:15TCU (6-3/35)B12 (3-3)BYU (8-1/8)B12 (5-1)BYU-4.5BYU 65.0%BYUESPN
Idle – Colorado (3-7/90), Houston (8-2/25), Iowa St (6-4/40), Kansas (5-5/62)
Big Ten (18 teams) – Core 4
FRI 9:00Minnesota (6-3/45)B10 (4-2)Oregon (8-1/4)B10 (5-1)ORE-25.5ORE 75.5%OREFox
12:00Wisconsin (3-6/93)B10 (1-5)Indiana (10-0/2)B10 (7-0)IND-29.5IND 99.9%INDBTN
12:00Michigan (7-2/11)B10 (5-1)Northwestern (5-4/63)B10 (3-3)MICH-12.5MICH 64.0%MICHFox
3:30Maryland (4-5/84)B10 (1-5)Illinois (6-3/22)B10 (3-3)ILL-14.5ILL 68.0%ILLFS1
3:30Iowa (6-3/29)B10 (4-2)Southern Cal (7-2/9)B10 (5-1)SCAL-6.5SCAL 61.0%SCALBTN 
3:30Penn St
(3-6/70)
B10 (0-6)Michigan St (3-6/101)B10 (0-6)PSU-7.5PSU 54.0%MIST CBS
7:00Purdue (2-8/115)B10 (0-7)Washington (6-3/33)B10 (3-3)WASH-16.5WASH 87.5%WASHFS1
7:30UCLA (3-6/86)B10 (3-3)Ohio St
(9-0/1)
B10 (6-0)OHST-33.5OHST 99.9%OHSTNBC
Idle – Nebraska (7-3/36), Rutgers (5-5/69)
SEC (16 teams) – Core 4
12:00South Carolina
(3-6/106)
SEC (1-6)Texas A&M (9-0/7)SEC (6-0)TAM-18.5TAM 85.0%TAMESPN
12:45Arkansas (2-7/111)SEC (0-5)LSU (5-4/58)SEC (2-4)LSU-6.5LSU 66.0%LSUSECN
1:30Tennessee Tech
(10-0/129)
BSOV (7-0)Kentucky (4-5/85)SEC (2-5)KENT 60.0%SEC+
3:30Oklahoma (7-2/24)SEC (3-2)Alabama (8-1/12)SEC (6-0)ALA-6.5ALA 57.0%ALAABC
4:15New Mexico St
(3-6/122)
USA (1-5)Tennessee (6-3/46)SEC (3-3)TENN-40.5TENN 69.5%NMSTSECN
7:00Florida (3-6/97)SEC (2-4)Mississippi (9-1/19)SEC (5-1)MISS-15.5MISS 79.0%MISSESPN
7:30Texas (7-2/34)SEC (4-1)Georgia (8-1/14)SEC (6-1)GEO-6.5GEO 57.5%GEOABC
7:45Mississippi
St
(5-5/74)
SEC (1-5)Missouri (6-3/51)SEC (2-3)MIZZ-7.5MIZZ 61.5%MIZZSECN
Idle – Auburn (4-6/73), Vanderbilt (8-2/26)
AAC (14 teams) – Group of 5
12:00UTSA (4-5/95)AAC (2-3)Charlotte (1-8/171)AAC (0-6)UTSA-18.5UTSA 68%CHARESPN+
12:00South Florida (7-2/31)AAC (4-1)Navy (7-2/54)AAC (5-1)SFLA-10.5SFLA 52.0%NAVYESPN2
1:00Oregon St
(2-8/125)
PAC (1-0)Tulsa (2-7/131)AAC (0-6)ORST-2.5ORST 53.0%ORSTESPN+
2:00North Texas (8-1/18)AAC (4-1)UAB (3-6/118)AAC (1-4)NTEX-18.5NTEX 75.5%NTEXESPN+
4:00FAU (4-5/110)AAC (3-3)Tulane (7-2/37)AAC (4-1)TULN-17.5TULN 69.0%TULNESPN+
4:00Memphis (8-2/30)AAC (4-2)East Carolina (6-3/47)AAC (4-1)ECAR-2.5MEM 54.0%MEMESPNU
Idle – Army (5-4/72), Rice (5-5/109), Temple (5-5/98)
C-USA (12 teams) – Group of 5
3:00UTEP (2-7/133)USA (1-4)Missouri St (6-3/83)USA (4-1)MOST-4.5MOST 67.0%MOSTESPN+
3:30Middle Tennessee
(1-8/160)
USA (0-5)W Kentucky (7-2/67)USA (5-1)WKY-13.5WKY 80.5%WKYESPN+
5:00Liberty (4-5/103)USA (3-2)FIU (4-5/108)USA (2-3)LIB-2.5LIB 53.0%LIBESPN+
7:00Delaware (5-4/91)USA (3-3)Sam Houston (1-8/150)USA (0-5)DEL-9.5DEL 66.5%DELESPN+
8:00Kennesaw St (7-2/44)USA (5-0)Jacksonville St (6-3/89)USA (5-0)KNST-3.5KNST 53.5%KNSTESPNU
10:00LA Tech
(5-4/65)
USA (3-3)Washington St
(4-5/68)
PAC (0-1)WAST-7.5WAST 53.5%LATCThe CW
OOC – New Mexico St (@Tennessee-SEC)
Idle – none
FBS Independents (2 teams) – Notre Dame=Core 4, UCONN=Group of 5
12:00Air Force
(3-6/112)
MWC (2-4)UCONN (7-3/56)IND (0-0)UCON-7.5UCON 70.5%UCONCBS Sports
OOC – Notre Dame (@Pittsburgh-ACC)
MAC (13 teams) – Group of 5
TUE 7:30Kent St
(3-6/127)
MAC (2-3)Akron (4-6/121)MAC (3-3)AKR-6.5ARK 57.0%AKRESPNU
TUE 8:00Ohio (6-3/66)MAC (4-1)W Michigan (5-4/82)MAC (4-1)WMI-1.5OHIO 52.0%OHIOESPN2
WED 7:00N Illinois
(2-7/134)
MAC (1-4)UMASS (0-9/202)MAC (0-5)NILL-10.5NILL 59.5%UMASESPNU
WED 7:00Toledo (5-4/78)MAC (3-2)Miami OH
(5-4/87)
MAC (4-1)TOL-3.5TOL 50.5%MIAOESPN2
WED 7:00Buffalo (5-4/100)MAC (4-1)C Michigan (5-4/94)MAC (3-2)CMI-1.5CMI 53.0%CMICBS Sports
12:00E Michigan (3-7/128)MAC (2-4)Ball St
(4-5/120)
MAC (3-2)EMI-2.5BLST 56.5%BLSTESPN+
Idle – Bowling Green (3-7/120)
Mountain West (12 teams) – Group of 5
3:00Colorado St (2-7/137)MWC (1-4)New Mexico (6-3/59)MWC (3-2)NMEX-14.5NMEX 77.0%NMEXMWN
3:30San Jose St (3-6/117)MWC (2-3)Nevada (1-8/151)MWC (0-5)SJST-9.5SJST 59.5%SJSTCBS Sports
7:00Utah St
(5-4/81)
MWC (3-2)UNLV (7-2/52)MWC (3-2)UNLV-6.5UNLV 63.5%UNLVCBS Sports
10:30Wyoming (4-5/113)MWC (2-3)Fresno St
(6-3/76)
MWC (3-2)FRST-3.5FRST 64.0%FRSTFS1
10:30Boise St
(6-3/48)
MWC (4-1)San Diego St (7-2/41)MWC (4-1)SDST-2.5SDST 59.5%SDSTCBS Sports
OOC – Air Force (@UCONN-IND)
Idle – Hawaii (7-3/64)
Pac-12 (2 teams) – Group of 5
OOC – Oregon St (@Tulsa-AAC), Washington St (La Tech-USA)
Sun Belt (14 teams) – Group of 5
THU 7:30Troy (6-3/49)SUN (4-1)Old Dominion (6-3/27)SUN (3-2)OD-11.5OD 55.5%TROYESPN
2:00Marshall (4-5/77)SUN (2-3)Georgia St
(1-8/139)
SUN (0-5)MARS-9.5MARS 73.0%MARSESPN+
3:30South Alabama
(2-7/123)
SUN (1-4)ULM (3-6/116)SUN (1-4)SALA-4.5ULM 53.5%ULMESPN+
3:30Texas St
(3-6/104)
SUN (0-5)Southern Miss
(7-2/21)
SUN (5-0)SMIS-6.5SMIS 82.0%SMISESPN+
3:30App St
(4-5/88)
SUN (1-4)James Madison
(8-1/10)
SUN (6-0)JMU-20.5JMU 84.5%JUMESPN+
6:00Coastal Car (6-3/50)SUN (5-1)Ga Southern (4-5/75)SUN (2-3)GASO-2.5CCAR 61.5%CCARESPN+
Idle – Arkansas St (5-5/79), Louisiana (4-6/92)
Big Sky (12 teams) – FCS
4:00N Colorado (3-7/225)SKY (1-5)E Washington (4-6/219)SKY (3-3)EWA 57%ESPN+
4:00Cal Poly
(3-7/214)
SKY (1-5)N Arizona
(6-4/183)
SKY (3-3)NAZ 61%ESPN+
5:00Montana (10-0/135)SKY (6-0)Portland St (1-9/260)SKY (1-5)MONT 67%ESPN+
6:00Weber St
(3-7/244)
SKY (1-5)Idaho St
(4-6/187)
SKY (3-3)IDST 62%ESPN+
9:00Idaho (4-6/189)SKY (2-4)Sacramento
St
(6-4/165)
SKY (4-2)SAC 61%ESPN+
10:15UC Davis
(7-2/164)
SKY (5-1)Montana St (8-2/132)SKY (6-0)MTST 60%ESPN2
Idle – none
Big South/Ohio Valley (9 teams) – FCS
2:00Charleston So (4-6/220)BSOV (3-3)Tennessee Martin
(5-5/239)
BSOV (5-1)TMAR 57%ESPN+
2:00SEMO (3-7/221)BSOV (2-4)W Illinois
(3-7/254)
BSOV (2-4)SEMO 52%ESPN+
2:30Gardner Webb
(6-4/193)
BSOV (4-2)Tennessee St (2-8/249)BSOV (0-6)GW 52%ESPN+
3:00E Illinois
(3-7/227)
BSOV (2-5)Lindenwood (4-6/218)BSOV (3-3)EILL 54%ESPN+
OOC – Tennessee Tech (@Kentucky-SEC)
Idle – none
Coastal (14 teams) – FCS
12:00Monmouth (8-2/147)CAA (5-1)North Carolina A&T (2-8/258)CAA (2-4)MON 61%FloFootball
12:00New Hampshire (6-4/156)CAA (4-2)Bryant (3-7/243)CAA (1-5)NHAM 52%FloFootball
1:00Towson (4-6/217)CAA (2-4)Albany (1-9/253)CAA (0-6)TOW 51%FloFootball
1:00William & Mary
(6-4/195)
CAA (5-2)Hampton (2-8/252)CAA (0-6)W&M 50%FloFootball
1:00Rhode Island (8-2/152)CAA (6-0)Maine (6-4/190)CAA (5-1)RISL 51%FloFootball
1:00Stony Brook (5-5/185)CAA (3-3)Villanova (7-2/159)CAA (6-1)VILL 59%FloFootball
2:00Elon (4-6/200)CAA (2-4)Campbell (2-8/247)CAA (2-4)ELON 50%FloFootball
Idle – none
FCS Independent (2 teams) – FCS
12:00Merrimack (3-7/206)FCS (0-0)Sacred Heart (7-3/166)FCS (0-0)SH 62%ESPN+
Idle – none
Ivy League (8 teams) – FCS
12:00Penn (5-3/163)IVY (3-2)Harvard (8-0/114)Ivy (5-0)HARV 68%ESPN+
12:00Brown (3-5/177)IVY (0-5)Columbia (1-7/226)IVY (0-5)BRO 50%ESPN+
12:00Yale (6-2/136)IVY (4-1)Princeton (3-5/178)IVY (2-3)YALE 52%ESPN+
1:00Cornell (4-4/176)IVY (3-2)Dartmouth (6-2/146)IVY (3-2)DART 60%ESPN+
Idle – none
MEAC (6 teams) – FCS
FRI 5:30South Carolina St
(7-3/198)
MEAC (3-0)NC Central
(7-3/181)
MEAC (2-1)NCC 58%ESPN2
12:00Morgan St
(3-7/237)
MEAC (0-3)Norfolk St
(1-9/256)
MEAC (0-3)MORG 54%ESPN+
1:00Howard (4-6/232)MEAC (1-2)Delaware St (7-3/179)MEAC (3-0)DEST 62%ESPN+
Idle – none
Missouri Valley (10 teams) – FCS
12:00Indiana St
(3-7/222)
MVFC (1-5)Youngstown St
(6-4/170)
MVFC (3-3)YST 65%ESPN+
12:00North Dakota (6-4/138)MVFC (4-2)Murray St
(0-10/263)
MVFC (0-6)NDAK 63%ESPN+
1:00South Dakota (7-4/180)MVFC (5-2)S Illinois
(6-4/173)
MVFC (3-3)SILL 59%ESPN+
3:00Illinois St
(7-3/158)
MVFC (4-2)South Dakota St
(7-3/148)
MVFC (3-3)SDKS 57%ESPN+
3:30N Iowa
(3-7/228)
MVFC (1-5)North Dakota St (10-0/107)MVFC (7-0)NDST 73%ESPN+
Idle – none
Northeast (9 teams) – FCS
12:00C Connecticut (7-3/175)NEC (5-0)Duquesne (5-5/205)NEC (4-2)CCON 51%NEC Front Row
12:00Long Island (4-6/191)NEC (3-3)St Francis
(0-9/264)
NEC (0-5)LIU 55%NEC Front Row
12:00Robert Morris (3-7/246)NEC (2-3)Mercyhurst (4-6/207)NEC (4-2)MHUR 61%NEC Front Row
12:00Stonehill (3-7/211)NEC (2-3)Wagner (4-6/250)NEC (3-2)STON 52%NEC Front Row
Idle – New Haven (5-5/216)
Patriot League (8 teams) – FCS
12:00Holy Cross
(1-9/213)
PAT (1-4)Bucknell (5-5/212)PAT (2-3)BUCK 59%ESPN+
1:00Fordham (1-9/261)PAT (1-5)Georgetown (5-5/194)PAT (2-3)GTOW 67%ESPN+
1:00Lehigh (10-0/124)PAT (5-0)Colgate (4-6/215)PAT (2-3)LEH 58%ESPN+
2:00Lafayette (7-3/196)PAT (5-0)Richmond (6-4/203)PAT (3-3)LAF 54%ESPN+
Idle – none
Pioneer League (11 teams) – FCS
12:00Davidson (2-8/240)PFL (1-5)Marist (4-6/192)PFL (2-4)MARI 63%ESPN+
12:00Drake (6-3/155)PFL (5-1)Dayton (6-3/161)PFL (4-2)DAY 57%YouTube
1:00Stetson (3-7/233)PFL (2-4)Valparaiso (1-9/245)PFL (0-6)STET 55%ESPN+
2:00Presbyterian (8-2/149)PFL (4-2)St Thomas
(7-3/141)
PFL (5-2)STTH 58%Midco Sports
4:00Butler (5-5/188)PFL (3-3)San Diego
(6-4/169)
PFL (4-2)SDIE 58%ESPN+
Idle – Morehead St (6-5/204)
SoCon (9 teams) – FCS
12:00E Tennessee St
(5-5/182)
SoCon (3-3)W Carolina (6-4/186)SoCon (5-1)ETSU 55%ESPN+
1:00VMI (1-9/255)SoCon (0-6)Furman (5-5/197)SoCon (3-4)FUR 64%ESPN+
2:00Samford (1-9/262)SoCon (1-7)Austin Peay (6-4/143)UAC (4-3)AP 73%ESPN+
2:00Wofford (4-6/199)SoCon (3-3)Citadel (4-6/209)SoCon (3-3)WOFF 52%ESPN+
3:00Chattanooga (5-5/184)SoCon (4-2)Mercer (8-1/130)SoCon (7-0)MERC 66%ESPN+
Idle – none
Southland (10 teams) – FCS
3:00Southeastern (7-3/157)SLAN (5-1)Incarnate Word
(4-6/208)
SLAN (2-4)SELA 50%ESPN+
4:00Northwestern St
(1-9/265)
SLAN (0-6)Nicholls (3-7/235)SLAN (3-3)NICH 64%ESPN+
5:00Houston Chr (2-8/259)SLAN (1-5)East Texas
(2-8/251)
SLAN (2-4)ETEX 56%ESPN+
5:00Lamar (8-2/167)SLAN (5-1)Steph F Austin (8-2/153)SLAN (6-0)SFA 58%ESPN+
7:00Rio Grande (7-3/168)SLAN (3-3)McNeese (4-6/242)SLAN (3-3)RG 51%ESPN+
Idle – none
SWAC (12 teams) – FCS
3:00Bethune (5-5/224)SWAC (4-2)Jackson St
(7-2/144)
SWAC (5-1)JACK 66%SWAC TV
3:00Florida A&M (4-5/241)SWAC (3-2)Alabama A&M
(4-6/234)
SWAC (2-5)ALAM 57%SWAC TV
3:00Grambling St (7-3/201)SWAC (4-2)Alcorn St
(4-6/223)
SWAC (3-4)ACST 57%HBCUGo
3:00Ark Pine Bluff (4-6/236)SWAC (2-4)Prairie View (7-3/174)SWAC (5-1)PV 64%SWAC TV
3:00Texas Southern
(4-5/230)
SWAC (3-3)Southern (1-9/257)SWAC (1-7)TXSO 51%SWAC TV
5:00Alabama St (7-2/145)
Neutral Site
SWAC (6-1)Mississippi Valley
(1-8/248)
Neutral Site
SWAC (0-6)ALST 65%SWAC TV
Idle – none
UAC (9 teams) – FCS
2:00Utah Tech
(2-8/231)
UAC (1-5)West Georgia (7-3/162)UAC (4-3)WGA 65%ESPN+
3:00Abilene Chr (6-4/172)UAC (5-1)E Kentucky
(4-6/229)
UAC (2-4)ABCH 51%ESPN+
7:00N Alabama (2-8/238)UAC (1-5)Tarleton (9-1/119)UAC (5-1)TARL 74%ESPN+
8:30C Arkansas (3-7/210)UAC (2-4)S Utah
(5-5/154)
UAC (4-2)SUT 63%ESPN+
OOC – Austin Peay (Samford-SoCon)
Idle – none