Welcome to Championship Weekend, college football fans. The FCS will be kicking us off, but let’s close out the “other” games with a recap of the Texas Bowl blowout. A depleted LSU 6-7 (43) had nothing (at least until scoring 13 in the last 3:35 of the game) against Kansas St 8-5 (44) and lost 42-20. After the first 23 minutes of the game, the Tigers had a total of 6 offensive plays. That should tell the story right there. Both Vegas and the GCR had KSST so we are still tied at 26-14 – the GCR is 21-17-2 ATS. Here is the table for the FBS. Unless there is a COVID cancellation, we know that the SEC will finish 6-8, tying the Big Ten in bowl wins and also having the most losses. Kudos to the Mountain West for the best record (including 2 wins over Power 5 competition) and the Big 12 for best P5 winning percentage.
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| Conference | Bowls | Bowl Change | Overall Record | Winning Pct | vs Power 5 Record | vs Group of 5 Record |
| Mtn West | 6 | -2 | 5-1 | .833 | 2-0 | 3-1 |
| American | 4 | -3 | 3-1 | .750 | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| Sun Belt | 4 | N/C | 3-1 | .750 | 0-0 | 3-1 |
| Big 12 | 7 | N/C | 5-2 | .714 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| Big Ten | 10 | +1 | 6-4 | .600 | 6-4 | 0-0 |
| Indies | 4 | N/C | 2-2 | .500 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| SEC | 14 | +1 | 5-7 | .455 | 4-4 | 0-3 |
| C-USA | 8 | N/C | 3-5 | .375 | 0-0 | 3-5 |
| MAC | 8 | -1 | 3-5 | .375 | 1-0 | 2-5 |
| ACC | 6 | -4 | 2-4 | .333 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Pac-12 | 5 | -1 | 0-5 | .000 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
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Today, in Frisco, Texas, we have the finals of the highest level of college football championships recognized by the NCAA. 24 teams began play (top 8 seeds with a bye) in December and defending champion North Dakota St 13-1 (65) of the Missouri Valley Football Conference will take on Montana St 12-2 (85) of the Big Sky Conference. Let’s start with the underdog Bobcats. They lost only at FBS bowl-eligible Wyoming 7-6 (92) 19-16 and 29-10 at rival Montana 10-3 (116) who beat E Washington in the playoffs before losing to James Madison (semi-finalist who lost to North Dakota St). They are 3-0 in the playoffs beating Tennessee Martin 26-7, upsetting previously undefeated Sam Houston St on the road 42-19, and South Dakota St (who beat North Dakota St) 31-17. The Bison lost only to the Jackrabbits 27-19 in November. They are 3-0 in the playoffs beating S Illinois 38-7, E Tennessee St 27-3, and, in a rematch of last year’s championship, James Madison 20-14. All of their games have been in Fargo. When the Bison have the ball, they bring a potent Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) of 138 (they score 13.8 points for every 10 points their opponents normally allow), good for 18th in the nation and will face the immovable object of Montana St’s DER (Defensive) of 198 (they give up 10 points for every 19.8 their opponents normally score) good for 3rd nationally. On the flip side, the Bobcats present an OER of a mere 115 (73rd) but will face the number 2 DER (behind only Georgia) of 238. It should be hard for either team to score a lot of points (the over/under is just 42.0), but it will be harder for Montana St. Not to mention that North Dakota St is in the finals often and Montana St hasn’t been in the big game since the mid-80s. Vegas has the edge to NDST -7.5 and the GCR agrees 59.2%. Kickoff is at noon (all times Eastern) on ESPN2. It will be worth watching.
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That’s it for the day. Thank you for reading and we will see you on Monday as we talk through the CFP Championship. Here are all the games with updated odds, rankings, and records, G
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