Welcome back, college sports fans, as we do a deep dive into tonight’s FBS semifinal game. First, we need to take our hats off to the FCS champion Montana St Bobcats who edged the Illinois St Redbirds by a score of 35-34 on January 5th. The Bobcats took a 14-0 lead only to see ILST drive the field and score a TD on a beautiful pass with just 54 seconds to go in the half. The next three plays by the Bobcats were passes of 20, 22, and 33 yards with the last making a 14-point spread again with 18 second before the break – MTST 21-7. A fumble recovery for a score by the Redbirds brought the score to 21-14, but Montana St answered quickly again to go up 28-14. The 4th quarter belonged to ILST and to their QB, Rittenhouse, who delivered 2 TD strikes to force the game into overtime. Illinois St took just two pass plays to get into the end zone, but the point after was blocked. Montana St faced a 4th and 10 from the 14 and found the end zone. The PAT was good and this fantastic game was over. Both teams earned respect and showed they belonged in the championship game.
…..
Tonight at 7:30 Eastern on ESPN we have the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl featuring the Miami FL Hurricanes (12-2/6) of the ACC and the Mississippi Rebels (13-1/8) of the SEC. Check the table out below to show a game-by-game comparison.
| Game/ Info | Miami FL Opp | Score | Mississippi Opp | Score |
| 1 | Notre Dame (10-2/5) Bowl Eligible | 27-24 | Georgia St (1-11/186) | 63-7 |
| 2 | (FCS) Bethune (6-6/220) | 45-3 | @Kentucky (5-7/61) | 30-23 |
| 3 | South Florida (9-4/41) Bowl Team | 49-12 | Arkansas (2-10/101) | 41-35 |
| 4 | [like opponent] Florida (4-8/69) | 26-7 | Tulane (11-3/42) Playoff Team | 45-10 |
| 5 | @Florida St (5-7/60) | 28-22 | LSU (7-5/39) Bowl Team | 24-19 |
| 6 | Louisville (9-4/22) – WORST LOSS Bowl Team | 21-24 | Washington St (7-6/73) Bowl Team | 24-21 |
| 7 | Stanford (4-8/85) | 42-7 | @Georgia (12-2/7) – WORST LOSS Playoff Team | 35-43 |
| 8 | @SMU (9-4/19) – LOSS Bowl Team | 20-26 | @Oklahoma (10-3/12) Playoff Team | 34-26 |
| 9 | Syracuse (3-9/107) | 38-10 | South Carolina (4-8/71) | 30-14 |
| 10 | NC St (8-5/33) Bowl Team | 41-7 | (FCS) Citadel (4-8/227) | 49-0 |
| 11 | @Virginia Tech (3-9/100) | 34-17 | [like opponent] Florida (4-8/69) | 34-24 |
| 12 | @Pittsburgh (8-5/36) Bowl Team | 38-7 | @Mississippi St (5-8/75) Bowl Team | 38-19 |
| Round 1 | @Texas A&M (11-2/11) | 10-3 | (Rematch) Tulane (11-3/42) | 41-10 |
| Round 2 | (N) Ohio St (12-2/3) Best Win | 24-14 | (Rematch) (N) Georgia (12-2/7) Best Win | 39-34 |
| Vs Bowl | 6-2 | 7-1 | ||
| Vs PO | 2-0 | 4-1 | ||
| Opp Record | 101-75 (.574) | 95-84 (.531) | ||
| Avg Opp Rank | 57.9 | 71.0 | ||
| SOS | 31st | 48th | ||
| Avg GCR % to Win | 75.4% | 81.8% |
…..
The playoff opponents for Miami won their first 23 games. Texas A&M started 11-0 before losing to Texas to end the regular season (it knocked them out of the SEC championship game as well) before losing to the Hurricanes. Ohio St was 12-0 before losing to Indiana in the Big Ten championship game just before losing to the Hurricanes. While they are the only two playoff teams played, it is impressive. Both of Mississippi’s playoff opponents were repeat games, Tulane and Georgia. Neither team played an overall impressive regular season (MIAF opponents were 78-71 while MISS opponents were 72-79), but Mississippi’s regular season was odd. They faced 3 future playoff teams with a record of 33-8 meaning their remaining opponents were just 39-71. Miami was the last team in but have earned their way to the semifinal on their defense against really good offensive teams. They both played Florida in home games with MIAF winning by 19 while MISS won by 10. Prior to the playoffs, MIAF was 2-2 in one-score games (2-1 against future bowl teams) with MISS going 4-0 – none of those were against teams that won more than 7 games.
…..
Vegas has MIAF-3.0 and the GCR sees a one-score game with MIAF at 50.5%. Look for MISS to cover. Who knows? Maybe there will be another blocked PAT to decide this game. The winner plays for the title against either Oregon or Indiana.
…..
That’s it for tonight. Tune in tomorrow when we talk about the Peach Bowl. Thank you for reading and sharing with others. Let us know what you think about the analysis and predictions in today’s Expectation (or any of them for that matter). We would love to hear from you, JoJo and G.
