Welcome back, oh great and wonderful college football fans, to episode 439 of the GCR. I wrote yesterday that the Music City Bowl between Iowa (8-5/38) and Missouri (10-3/25) was going to be a close one, almost a coin toss. Here’s the flow of the game. Iowa scored first in the opening quarter going up 7-0. Mizzou answered about 5 1/2 minutes later to tie it up. The Hawkeyes special teams got in the action by returning the ensuing kickoff for a score taking us 14-7 Iowa to the second. The Tigers tied it up less than 4 minutes game time later with another score. With just 49 seconds to go in the half, Iowa punched it in from a yard out to take a 21-14 lead into the locker room. Iowa scored for the last time with 5:23 in the 3rd to take a 10-point lead 24-14; the biggest lead of the game. A TD by Missouri with less than 2:00 minutes in the quarter tightened it to 24-21. A 51-yard FG with just over 10 minutes to go in the game tied it. And less than 6 minutes later, a 56-yard FG gave Missouri it’s first and only lead, but it was enough. Mizzou 27-24.
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That comeback brought the GCR up to 22-12 (.647) straight up and 18-16 (.529) against the spread. Here are the updated standings:
| Conf | Total Games | Games Played | Wins | Losses | Points Scored | Points Allowed | GCR Rating | GCR Rank |
| IND | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 54 | 31 | 0.721 | 1 |
| AAC | 8 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 209 | 171 | 0.613 | 2 |
| MAC | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 203 | 178 | 0.530 | 3 |
| SEC | 14 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 240 | 207 | 0.515 | 4 |
| Big Ten | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 217 | 171 | 0.491 | 5 |
| B12 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 233 | 216 | 0.480 | 6 |
| SUN | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 139 | 180 | 0.424 | 7 |
| USA | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 81 | 110 | 0.310 | 8 |
| MWC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 100 | 125 | 0.306 | 9 |
| ACC | 13 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 263 | 333 | 0.275 | 10 |
| P12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 35 | 52 | 0.211 | 11 |
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Today is the last day with more than 3 games. There will only be 11 more college football games this season (1,667 games overall). In today’s first game at noon (all times Eastern), we have Tampa’s ReliaQuest Bowl featuring the SEC’s 4th place Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3/12) and the Big Ten’s 7th place Michigan Wolverines (7-5/27). Alabama was 6-3 against bowl-eligible (BE) teams, but 2 of their losses were unexpected: Vanderbilt (7-6) and Oklahoma (6-7). Pick one of those as the reason Alabama is a) not in the playoff and b) not in the Citrus Bowl. They played 6 teams that won 8 or more and 3 that won 10 or more. That does not count the 11-3 FCS Mercer Bears, who made the FCS playoffs. Both teams that were not BE were 5-7. Their opponents were 97-57 (.630) good for 12th most difficult schedule. They face a Michigan team who upset Ohio St (11-2) in their last appearance. They played the 4th most difficult schedule (hence their ranking of 27) with a 99-53 (.651) record which includes 6 8+ win teams and 4 11+win teams. They did not play an FCS team and only faced 2 non-BE teams who were a combined 9-15. Vegas has Alabama-16.5, up from -14.5 yesterday. The GCR has Bama winning 64%, but that’s too many points: Michigan will cover. Watch on ESPN.
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In the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl out of El Paso, we have the ACC’s 5th place Louisville Cardinals (8-4/23) kickoff off against the Big Ten’s 11th place Washington Huskies (6-6/39) at 2:00. Louisville has had a weird season beating ACC Champion Clemson (10-4) but losing to Stanford (3-9). For the season they were 5-3 against BE teams, winning their last 3. They faced 4 10+win teams going 1-3. They had the 19th best SOS (89-66/.574). Washington, in their first year in the conference, were just 2-6 against BE teams. They did not beat any team with more than 8 wins on the season. They faced the 8th most difficult schedule (91-61/.599). Interestingly, the Huskies won their first 2 games, then alternated loss/win for the rest of the season. They ended the season with a loss. Vegas thinks this will be close with LOU-1.0. The ACC is 1-9 straight up and 0-10 against the spread, but somebody has to cut through, right? The GCR thinks Louisville is the better team at 60% and to cover. Watch on CBS.
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At 3:00, the highest non-playoff bowl, out of Orlando, the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl (that combination just does not go together at all) features the SEC’s 5th place South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3/17) and the Big Ten’s 5th place Illinois Illini (9-3/18). SCAR finished the season as strong as anyone 6-0 with 5 of those games against BE teams. They faced 2 10-win teams and beat both of them going 5-3 against BE teams. They had the 37th most difficult schedule (85-65/.567). Illinois started out 4-0 (1 BE team) and ended 3-0 (1 BE team) going 2-3 (4 BE teams) in the middle. They faced 2 10-win teams and lost to both of them. Just 64th in SOS (75-74/.503), they were not challenged throughout the season. Interestingly, only 3 players between the two teams opted out of this game to go pro. Vegas likes SCAR-9.0 and the GCR agrees 61% and to cover. Watch on ABC.
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At 3:30, in Houston, we have the Kinder’s Bowl when the Big 12’s 5th place Baylor Bears (8-4/29) take on the SEC’s 6th place LSU Tigers (8-4/31). Baylor was 3-3 against BE teams and also lost to Utah (5-7). They are 33rd in SOS (86-67/.562). LSU beat 2 9-win teams (South Carolina and Mississippi) and were 6-4 against BE teams but never faced a 10-win squad. They were 34th in SOS (86-65/.570). Vegas likes BAY-3.5, but the GCR is picking LSU for the upset 53% and to cover. Watch on ESPN.
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Our final game is the first quarterfinal at 7:30, from Glendale, AZ, played in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl with the Big Ten runner up Penn St (12-2/5) and the Mountain West Champion Boise St (12-1/10). Penn St beat SMU (11-3) in the first round and only lost to playoff teams Ohio St (11-2) and Oregon (13-0) going 7-2 against BE teams. Boise St’s only loss came early in the season at Oregon by a score of 37-34. They beat conference rival UNLV (11-3) twice going 5-1 against BE teams. They also had 4 games against teams that were just 3-9. I think Boise St is a great Group of 5 team and deserves to be in the playoffs. I do not think that they are better than Penn St. Vegas likes PSU-11.5 and the GCR agrees 63% and to cover. Watch on EPSN.
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That’s it for today. Please be careful out there on amateur night. Thank you for a great 2024 for all of the GCR (my daughter and me) and we look forward to the rest of the season staring tomorrow. Here are all the games for today:
| Time | Bowl (Location) | Team | Team | Vegas | GCR Win | GCR Cover |
| 12:00 | ReliaQuest (Tampa) | Alabama (9-3/12) | Michigan (7-5/27) | ALA-16.5 | ALA 64% | MICH |
| 2:00 | Tony the Tiger Sun (El Paso) | Louisville (8-4/23) | Washington (6-6/39) | LOU-1.0 | LOU 60% | LOU |
| 3:00 | Cheez-It Citrus (Orlando) | South Carolina (9-3/17) | Illinois (9-3/18) | SCAR-9.0 | SCAR 61% | SCAR |
| 3:30 | Kinder’s Texas (Houston) | Baylor (8-4/29) | LSU (8-4/31) | BAY-3.5 | LSU 53% | LSU |
| 7:30 | FBS QF Vrbo Fiesta (Glendale, AZ) | Penn St (12-2/5) | Boise St (12-1/10) | PSU-11.5 | PSU 63% | PSU |
