Welcome back, a day late, for this week’s games to watch and predictions. My flight was delayed last night and attempts to use the free airport internet proved fruitless (you can do better Dulles), so I’m a day later than usual. There were 2 games last night from the MAC conference. With the records and ranks pre-game, Toledo (7-4/80) lost to Akron (3-8/116) 21-14 in overtime. Vegas had TOL-9.0 and the GCR agreed so that was a miss. It does show you just how crazy rivalry week can be. The second game last night was a blowout 43-7 when Buffalo (7-4/87) finished Kent St’s (0-11/118) winless season intact. Only Kent St and Northwestern St (0-12/212) of the Southland Conference failed to win at least one game this season. Buffalo was favored -23.5 and the GCR saw them covering, which they did. So, a not so great 1-1 straight up and 1-1 against the spread to start the week.
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There are no games tonight and just 2 on Thursday (one FBS and one FCS) but Friday has ton so tune in – the games begin at noon (all times Eastern) so it’s like 2 Saturdays this week. The best pre-Saturday game is Turkey Day night when Memphis (9-2/29) invades Tulane (9-2/21). Memphis cannot make the American Conference championship game (will be Tulane and Army regardless of this game), but the Tigers could remove Tulane from playoff contention. If the Green Wave win and they beat Army AND the Big 12 continues to implode OR Boise St loses this weekend or in the Mountain West championship game, it is possible that Tulane could be higher rated than the Big 12 champion. Right now, they are 17th in the playoff ranking and Arizona St (highest ranked B12 team) is 16th. Assuming Boise St takes care of business, the ACC, Big Ten, and SEC would have the top 4 spots (probably), and Tulane could get the 5th automatic qualifying spot. If that happens, the Big 12 could be completely left out of the playoff in the inaugural 12-team season. Vegas likes Tulane-14.5 and the GCR thinks they will get the win, but Memphis is a pretty good squad and will cover that big spread.
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The early Saturday games give us a lot of options: Michigan at Ohio St even though Michigan is having a down year, Illinois trying to keep the dream of a 10-win season alive at Northwestern, Vanderbilt’s dream season didn’t survive the second half, but a win over Tennessee would make up for the close losses. Those who know me know that I’m a rabid South Carolina Gamecocks fan – all sports, all year, win or lose. That said, I probably haven’t highlighted a SCAR football game more than once since this blog started. Earlier this year, I chose the Gamecock/Vandy game because both teams were coming off of huge wins and were, unexpectedly, relevant to the SEC. This week, there are playoff implications to the South Carolina (8-3/19) at Clemson (9-2/14) matchup. Ranked 15th and 12th, respectively in the playoff top 25, the winner has a great chance at being considered. Clemson has two routes: win Saturday and hope for an at-large bid (even though they are 12th, they are currently on the outside looking in because the highest ranked team for the 5th automatic bid, Arizona St is 16th and would be the 12th seed), OR, regardless of Saturday’s outcome, if Miami FL loses at Syracuse, Clemson would face SMU in the ACC championship game and could earn an automatic bid by winning that game. South Carolina has one chance – win Saturday and hope for some upsets above them. Going into this game, Clemson is 1-2 against teams that have already clinched bowl games with losses to Georgia and Louisville and a win over Pittsburgh. To be fair, only 4 of their wins are against teams that have been eliminated (including the FCS Citadel win): Stanford, Florida St, Wake Forest, and Citadel. App St, NC St, Virginia, and Virginia Tech are all sitting on 5 wins and must win this weekend to qualify. The Virginias play each other so that’s a wash. The Tiger’s opponents have a winning percentage of just .471. Also to be fair, none of Clemson’s previous wins are currently in the playoff top 25 and Georgia is the only top 25 opponent they’ve faced. South Carolina has losses against 2 top 25 teams (Mississippi and Alabama) as well as bowl-bound LSU. They beat 4 non-bowl teams (including FCS Wofford): Old Dominion, Kentucky, Akron, and Wofford. Their “good” wins include 2 road victories against Oklahoma and Vanderbilt (Kentucky was in Lexington as well), along with home wins against Texas A&M and Missouri. Winners of 5 straight since the 2-point loss at Alabama, SCAR’s opponents have a .549 winning percentage. Vegas has Clemson winning a close one at home at CLEM-2.5, and the GCR agrees on a close game, but South Carolina 55% and to cover.
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At various times, the Big 12 contenders are games to follow and watch. There are 4 teams tied at 6-2 in the standings (plus 5 others at 5-3 which is just ridiculous). Colorado (8-3/25) hosts Oklahoma St (3-7/71) who is 0-8 in the conference. Colorado to win and cover-16.5. Arizona St (9-2/17) is at Arizona (4-7/90) and keeps their playoff hopes alive by winning and covering-8.5. Iowa St (9-2/13) hosts Kansas St (8-3/18) with some history on the line. Earlier this year Indiana won its 10th for their first ever double-digit win total. Iowa St has a chance to join them (leaving Vanderbilt as the only Core 4 school maxed out at 9). IAST will win and cover-2.5. BYU (9-2/11) who was the Big 12 darling for most of the season has to beat visiting Houston (4-7/93) to keep their dwindling playoff chances alive. They should and cover-13.5. These teams should win and cover, but this is the 2024 Big 12, so it wouldn’t surprise me if all of them lost.
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There are games all weekend long that have conference or playoff impact, so watch all you can.
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The Toilet Bowl game of the week with a combined 4 wins between the “combatants” is the Sun Belt matchup of Southern Miss (1-10/109) at Troy (3-8/107). They are 2-12 in the conference with both wins by Troy (back-to-back wins over Coastal Carolina and Ga Southern as those two teams have floundered in the second half) with their other win vs FCS foe Florida A&M. Southern Miss has a bottom 10 offense scoring just 5.9 points for every 10.0 points their opponents normally allow and only won against FCS team Southeastern. Vegas published odds to this at TROY-17.5, but the GCR is calling for the upset of the week/month/year with SMIS at 52% and to cover.
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The last thing is that the first round of the FCS playoffs starts this week with 8 games (details below). Congratulations to the qualifiers. Without further ado, here are all of the games. Thank you for reading and sharing with others, G
| Time | Away Team (Record/ GCR Rank) | Conf (Rec) | Home Team (Record/ GCR Rank) | Conf (Rec) | Vegas | GCR Win | GCR Cover |
| ACC (17 teams) | Core 4 | ||||||
| FRI 4:00 | Stanford (3-8/68) | ACC (2-6) | San Jose St (6-5/99) | MWC (3-4) | SJST-2.5 | SJST 73% | SJST |
| FRI 7:30 | Georgia Tech (7-4/37) | ACC (5-3) | Georgia (9-2/9) | SEC (6-2) | GEO-19.5 | GEO 59% | GT |
| 12:00 | Duke (8-3/26) | ACC (4-3) | Wake Forest (4-7/88) | ACC (2-5) | DUKE-4.0 | DUKE 71% | DUKE |
| 12:00 | Louisville (7-4/24) | ACC (5-3) | Kentucky (4-7/67) | SEC (1-7) | LOU-4.0 | LOU 68% | LOU |
| 12:00 | South Carolina (8-3/19) | SEC (5-3) | Clemson (9-2/14) | ACC (7-1) | CLEM-2.5 | SCAR 55% | SCAR |
| 3:00 | Pittsburgh (7-4/39) | ACC (3-4) | Boston College (6-5/50) | ACC (3-4) | BC-5.0 | PITT 51% | PITT |
| 3:30 | Miami FL (10-1/8) | ACC (6-1) | Syracuse (8-3/30) | ACC (4-3) | MIAF-11.0 | MIAF 52% | SYR |
| 3:30 | California (6-5/73) | ACC (2-5) | SMU (10-1/7) | ACC (7-0) | SMU-13.5 | SMU 64% | SMU |
| 3:30 | NC St (5-6/70) | ACC (2-5) | North Carolina (6-5/72) | ACC (3-4) | NCAR-3.5 | NCAR 60% | NCAR |
| 7:00 | Florida (6-5/38) | SEC (4-4) | Florida St (2-9/48) | ACC (1-7) | FLA-14.5 | FLA 79% | FLA |
| 8:00 | Virginia (5-6/49) | ACC (3-4) | Virginia Tech (5-6/53) | ACC (3-4) | VT-7.0 | VT 55% | VIR |
| Idle | none | ||||||
| Big 12 (16 teams) | Core 4 | ||||||
| FRI 12:00 | Oklahoma St (3-8/71) | B12 (0-8) | Colorado (8-3/25) | B12 (6-2) | COL-16.5 | COL 84% | COL |
| FRI 8:00 | Utah (4-7/78) | B12 (1-7) | UCF (4-7/59) | B12 (2-6) | UCF-9.5 | UCF 53% | Utah |
| 12:00 | Kansas (5-6/40) | B12 (4-4) | Baylor (7-4/31) | B12 (5-3) | BAY-1.5 | BAY 65% | BAY |
| 12:00 | West Virginia (6-5/63) | B12 (5-3) | Texas Tech (7-4/35) | B12 (5-3) | TXTC-3.5 | TXTC 58% | TXTC |
| 3:30 | Arizona St (9-2/17) | B12 (6-2) | Arizona (4-7/90) | B12 (2-7) | AZST-8.5 | AZST 74% | AZST |
| 6:00 | TCU (7-4/61) | B12 (5-3) | Cincinnati (5-6/47) | B12 (3-5) | TCU-3.0 | TCU 58% | TCU |
| 7:30 | Kansas St (8-3/18) | B12 (5-3) | Iowa St (9-2/13) | B12 (6-2) | IAST-2.5 | IAST 55% | IAST |
| 10:15 | Houston (4-7/93) | B12 (3-5) | BYU (9-2/11) | B12 (6-2) | BYU-13.5 | BYU 80% | BYU |
| OOC | none | ||||||
| Idle | none | ||||||
| Big Ten (18 teams) | Core 4 | ||||||
| FRI 12:00 | Minnesota (6-5/34) | B10 (4-4) | Wisconsin (5-6/62) | B10 (3-5) | WISC-2.0 | MINN 56% | MINN |
| FRI 7:30 | Nebraska (6-5/51) | B10 (3-5) | Iowa (7-4/36) | B10 (5-3) | IOWA-6.0 | IOWA 58% | IOWA |
| 12:00 | Michigan (6-5/34) | B10 (4-4) | Ohio St (10-1/2) | B10 (7-1) | OHST-21.0 | OHST 65% | MICH |
| 12:00 | Illinois (8-3/23) | B10 (5-3) | North-western (4-7/84) | B10 (2-6) | ILL-7.5 | ILL 71% | ILL |
| 3:30 | Fresno St (6-5/100) | MWC (4-3) | UCLA (4-7/55) | B10 (3-6) | UCLA-8.0 | FRST 60% | FRST |
| 3:30 | Notre Dame (10-1/4) | IND (0-0) | Southern Cal (6-5/60) | B10 (4-5) | ND-7.5 | ND 58% | ND |
| 3:30 | Maryland (4-7/65) | B10 (1-7) | Penn St (10-1/6) | B10 (7-1) | PSU-25.0 | PSU 81% | PSU |
| 3:30 | Rutgers (6-5/83) | B10 (3-5) | Rutgers (6-5/83) | B10 (3-5) | MIST-1.5 | RUTG 53% | RUTG |
| 7:00 | Purdue (1-10/57) | B10 (0-8) | Indiana (10-1/5) | B10 (7-1) | IND-28.5 | IND 92% | IND |
| 7:30 | Wash-ington (6-5/43) | B10 (4-4) | Oregon (11-0/1) | B10 (8-0) | ORE-19.0 | ORE 66% | WASH |
| OOC | none | ||||||
| Idle | none | ||||||
| SEC (16 teams) | Core 4 | ||||||
| FRI 3:30 | Mississippi St (2-9/44) | SEC (0-7) | Mississippi (8-3/20) | SEC (4-3) | MISS-26.0 | MISS 98% | MISS |
| 12:00 | Tennessee (9-2/10) | SEC (6-1) | Vanderbilt (6-5/75) | SEC (3-4) | TENN-10.5 | TENN 60% | VAND |
| 3:30 | Auburn (5-6/77) | SEC (2-5) | Alabama (8-3/15) | SEC (4-3) | ALA-11.5 | ALA 69% | ALA |
| 3:30 | Arkansas (6-5/64) | SEC (3-4) | Missouri (8-3/28) | SEC (4-3) | MIZZ-3.0 | MIZZ 59% | MIZZ |
| 7:00 | Oklahoma (6-5/41) | SEC (2-5) | LSU (7-4/33) | SEC (4-3) | LSU-6.0 | LSU 57% | LSU |
| 7:30 | Texas (10-1/3) | SEC (6-1) | Texas A&M (8-3/22) | SEC (5-2) | TEX-5.5 | TEX 51% | TAM |
| OOC | Florida (@Florida St-ACC), Georgia (Georgia Tech-ACC), Kentucky (Louisville-ACC), South Carolina (@Clemson-ACC) | ||||||
| Idle | none | ||||||
| AAC (14 teams) | G5 | ||||||
| THU 7:30 | Memphis (9-2/29) | AAC (5-2) | Tulane (9-2/21) | AAC (7-0) | TULN-14.5 | TULN 54% | MEM |
| FRI 12:00 | Navy (7-3/56) | AAC (5-2) | East Carolina (7-4/85) | AAC (5-2) | ECAR-2.5 | NAVY 51% | NAVY |
| 12:00 | UTSA (6-5/103) | AAC (4-3) | Army (9-1/16) | AAC (7-0) | ARMY-7.0 | ARMY 68% | ARMY |
| 12:00 | North Texas (5-6/104) | AAC (2-5) | Temple (3-8/111) | AAC (2-5) | NTEX-10.5 | NTEX 62% | NTEX |
| 2:00 | South Florida (6-5/97) | AAC (4-3) | Rice (3-8/122) | AAC (2-5) | SFLA-5.0 | SFLA 75% | SFLA |
| 3:30 | UAB (3-8/108) | AAC (2-5) | Charlotte (4-7/102) | AAC (3-4) | CHAR-2.5 | CHAR 63% | CHAR |
| 3:30 | FAU (2-9/151) | AAC (0-7) | Tulsa (3-8/146) | AAC (1-6) | FAU-1.5 | TULS 63% | TULS |
| OOC | none | ||||||
| Idle | none | ||||||
| C-USA (10 teams) | G5 | ||||||
| FRI 3:30 | Liberty (8-2/42) | USA (5-2) | Sam Houston (8-3/74) | USA (5-2) | LIB-3.0 | LIB 53% | LIB |
| 2:00 | Middle Tennessee (3-8/114) | USA (2-5) | FIU (3-8/140) | USA (2-5) | FIU-9.5 | MTSU 51% | MTSU |
| 4:00 | UTEP (2-9/121) | USA (2-5) | New Mexico St (3-8/117) | USA (2-5) | NMST-3.0 | NMST 61% | NMST |
| 4:00 | Jackson-ville St (8-3/52) | USA (7-0) | W Kentucky (7-4/81) | USA (5-2) | WKY-1.5 | JAX 51% | JAX |
| 4:00 | Kennesaw St (2-9/139) | USA (2-5) | LA Tech (4-7/142) | USA (3-4) | LATC-12.0 | LATC 71% | LATC |
| OOC | none | ||||||
| Idle | none | ||||||
| FBS Indies (3 teams) | G5 (ND-C4) | ||||||
| 12:00 | UCONN (7-4/91) | IND (0-0) | UMASS (2-9/113) | IND (0-0) | UCON-10.5 | UCON 87% | UCON |
| OOC | Notre Dame (@Southern Cal-B10) | ||||||
| Idle | none | ||||||
| MAC (12 teams) | G5 | ||||||
| TUE 7:00 | Toledo (7-4/80) | MAC (4-3) | Akron (3-8/116) | MAC (2-5) | TOL-9.0 | TOL 79% | TOL |
| TUE 7:00 | Kent St (0-11/ 118) | MAC (0-7) | Buffalo (7-4/87) | MAC (5-2) | BUFF-23.5 | BUFF 78% | BUFF |
| FRI 12:00 | Ball St (3-8/123) | MAC (2-5) | Ohio (8-3/69) | MAC (6-1) | OHIO-15.0 | OHIO 87% | OHIO |
| FRI 12:00 | Miami OH (7-4/82) | MAC (6-1) | Bowling Green (7-4/76) | MAC (6-1) | BG-2.0 | BG 53% | BG |
| 1:30 | E Michigan (5-6/124) | MAC (2-5) | W Michigan (5-6/126) | MAC (4-3) | WMI-7.0 | EMI 52% | EMI |
| 3:30 | C Michigan (4-7/132) | MAC (2-5) | N Illinois (6-5/95) | MAC (3-4) | NILL-12.5 | NILL 70% | NILL |
| OOC | none | ||||||
| Idle | none | ||||||
| Mountain West (12 teams) | G5 | ||||||
| FRI 12:00 | Oregon St (5-6/112) | P12 (1-0) | Boise St (10-1/12) | MWC (7-0) | BOST-19.0 | BOST 76% | BOST |
| FRI 3:30 | Utah St (4-7/127) | MWC (3-3) | Colorado St (7-4/86) | MWC (5-1) | COST-6.0 | COST 74% | COST |
| 6:30 | Wyoming (2-9/110) | MWC (2-5) | Wash-ington St (8-3/45) | P12 (0-1) | WAST-17.5 | WAST 97% | WAST |
| 8:00 | Nevada (3-9/120) | MWC (0-6) | UNLV (9-2/27) | MWC (5-1) | UNLV-17.5 | UNLV>99% | UNLV |
| 10:30 | Air Force (4-7/130) | MWC (2-4) | San Diego St (3-8/99) | MWC (2-4) | AF-3.5 | AF 58% | AF |
| 11:00 | New Mexico (5-6/136) | MWC (3-3) | Hawaii (4-7/134) | MWC (2-4) | NMEX-2.5 | NMEX 55% | NMEX |
| OOC | Fresno St (@UCLA-B10), San Jose St (Stanford-ACC) | ||||||
| Idle | none | ||||||
| Pac-12 (2 teams) | G5 | ||||||
| OOC | Oregon St (@Boise St-MWC), Washington St (Wyoming-MWC) | ||||||
| Idle | none | ||||||
| Sun Belt (14 teams) | G5 | ||||||
| FRI 3:30 | Texas St (6-5/98) | SUN (4-3) | South Alabama (6-5/96) | SUN (5-2) | TXST-1.0 | TXST 53% | TXST |
| 12:00 | Louisiana (9-2/32) | SUN (6-1) | ULM (5-6/101) | SUN (3-4) | LAU-9.5 | LAU 67% | LAU |
| 2:00 | Coastal Carolina (5-6/105) | SUN (2-5) | Georgia St (3-8/115) | SUN (1-6) | GAST-1.0 | CCAR 66% | CCAR |
| 2:00 | Southern Miss (1-10/ 109) | SUN (0-7) | Troy (3-8/107) | SUN (2-5) | TROY-17.5 | SMIS 52% | SMIS |
| 3:00 | Old Dominion (4-7/106) | SUN (3-4) | Arkansas St (7-4/89) | SUN (5-2) | OD-4.0 | ARST 73% | ARST |
| 6:00 | App St (5-5/94) | SUN (3-4) | Ga Southern (7-4/79) | SUN (5-2) | GASO-2.5 | GASO 64% | GASO |
| 8:00 | Marshall (8-3/66) | SUN (6-1) | James Madison (8-3/46) | SUN (4-3) | JMU-3.5 | JMU 55% | JMU |
| OOC | none | ||||||
| Idle | none | ||||||
| Big Sky (12 teams) | FCS | ||||||
| 3:00 | N Arizona (8-4/171) | SKY (6-2) | Abilene Christian (8-4/167) | UAC (7-1) | NL | ABCH 55% | PLAYOFF |
| 10:15 | Tennessee St (9-3/154) | BSOV (6-2) | Montana (8-4/164) | SKY (5-3) | NL | MONT 50% | PLAYOFF |
| OOC | none | ||||||
| Big South/ Ohio Valley (9 teams) | FCS | ||||||
| 12:00 | Illinois St (9-3/153) | MVC (6-2) | SEMO (9-3/152) | BSOV (6-2) | NL | SEMO 54% | PLAYOFF |
| 1:00 | Tennessee Martin (8-4/160) | BSOV (6-2) | New Hampshire (8-4/165) | CAA (6-2) | NL | TMAR 52% | PLAYOFF |
| OOC | Tennessee St (@Montana-SKY) | ||||||
| Colonial (16 teams) | FCS | ||||||
| 12:00 | C Conn-ecticut (7-5/181) | NEC (6-1) | Rhode Island (10-2/144) | CAA (7-1) | NL | RISL 63% | PLAYOFF |
| 2:00 | E Kentucky (8-4/168) | UAC (6-2) | Villanova (9-3/161) | CAA (6-2) | NL | VILL 55% | PLAYOFF |
| 2:00 | Lehigh (8-3/155) | PAT (5-1) | Richmond (10-2/ 133) | CAA (8-0) | NL | RICH 59% | PLAYOFF |
| OOC | New Hampshire (Tennessee Martin-BSOV) | ||||||
| FCS Indies (2 teams) | FCS | ||||||
| OOC | no games | ||||||
| MEAC (6 teams) | FCS | ||||||
| OOC | no games | ||||||
| Missouri Valley (11 teams) | FCS | ||||||
| OOC | Illinois St (@SEMO-BSOV) | ||||||
| Northeast (8 teams) | FCS | ||||||
| OOC | C Connecticut (@Rhode Island-CAA) | ||||||
| Patriot League (7 teams) | FCS | ||||||
| OOC | Lehigh (@Richmond-CAA) | ||||||
| Pioneer League (11 teams) | FCS | ||||||
| 3:00 | Drake (8-2/148) | PFL (7-1) | Tarleton (9-3/158) | UAC (6-2) | NL | DRAK 51% | PLAYOFF |
| OOC | none | ||||||
| SoCon (9 teams) | FCS | ||||||
| OOC | no games | ||||||
| Southland (9 teams) | FCS | ||||||
| OOC | no games | ||||||
| SWAC (12 teams) | FCS | ||||||
| THU 2:00 | Tuskegee (NA) | NA | Alabama St (6-5/187) | SWAC (5-3) | NL | NL | NL |
| FRI 4:00 | Alabama A&M (6-5/186) | SWAC (4-3) | Florida A&M (6-5/183) | SWAC (4-3) | NL | FLAM 51% | NL |
| 2:00 | Grambling St (5-6/202) | SWAC (2-5) | Southern (7-4/169) | SWAC (6-1) | NL | SOUT 62% | NL |
| OOC | none | ||||||
| UAC (9 teams) | FCS | ||||||
| OOC | Abilene Christian (N Arizona-SKY), E Kentucky (@Villanova-CAA), Tarleton (Drake-PFL) |
