G’s Expectation or It’s Separation Month!

Welcome back, college football fans. It’s Thursday and time for this week’s predictions and games to watch. Starting next week, the Expectation will be posted on either Tuesday or Wednesday because first Conference USA plays early in the week (October) and then the MAC takes over (November). That means there will be a college or pro game every single day from October 8th until December 2nd. That sounds like fall to us.

…..

Last week, the GCR was 37-16 (.698) picking the winner when an FBS team played bringing the season to 195-62 (.759). When two FCS teams played, we were 31-18 (.633) dropping the season average slightly to 103-57 (.644). That means for all predicted winners we were 68-34 (.667) for a total of 298-119 (.715). Against the spread (FBS/FBS games only), we struggled a bit at 25-26 (.490) for a season average of 95-89 (.516). My physical therapist said, “it seems like there are more upsets this season than normal.” She could be right. About half of the spread misses were by less than two points, so we’re not far off, but a missed FG here or junk TD allowed late in the 4th there and the numbers just aren’t where we would like them.

…..

We have but one game tonight. Sam Houston (0-4/142) at New Mexico St (2-2/98) in a Conference USA showdown on CBS Sports. For some strange reason, Vegas has the clearly lesser team as the favorite: SHOU-1.5, but the GCR sees New Mexico St taking this one in a blow out at 75%. There are seven games tomorrow night as well.

…..

The best early game on Saturday, with a noon kickoff on ESPN2, is Iowa St (5-0/9) at Cincinnati (3-1/45). When IAST is on offense, they bring a solid Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) of 130 (65th in the nation). That means they score 13.0 points for every 10.0 points their opponents allow on average. They face a CIN Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER) of 152 (41st) so points may be hard to come by. That DER means that they only give up 10.0 points for every 15.2 points their opponents score on average. When the Bearcats have the ball, they have an OER of 153 (22nd) compared to a Cyclone DER of 181 (26th). In both cases, the defenses are being more efficient than the offenses. Does that translate into a low-scoring game? Historically with these two teams? Don’t bet on it. Vegas likes CIN to get the win at home -1.5, but the GCR sees Iowa St pulling this one out 60% and to cover in a wild game.

…..

The mid-afternoon game and game of the week and upset of the week is Vanderbilt (5-0/8) at Alabama (3-1/19) on ABC at 3:30. Vanderbilt pulled the surprise upset last season, but that element is no longer in play. When the Commodores have their potent offense on the field, they bring an OER of 158 (21st) against a crushing Bama defense with a DER of 197 (18th). When the Tide are rushing, a stout OER of 188 (8th) against a Dores DER of 138 (60th). These numbers make it hard to support Vandy, but they won their 5 games by margins of 42, 24, 24, 49, and 20 – marking the first time they’ve done that since around the second world war. There’s belief in Nashville. Can they make it a 2-game winning streak against the Crimson Tide and in Tuscaloosa at that? Vegas does not think so with ALA-10.5, but the GCR calculates a Vanderbilt win 63% of the time. Don’t miss this one.

…..

Our evening game, at 7:30 on ABC, pits Miami FL (4-0/13) at Florida St (3-1/37). With an early loss by FSU, they cannot take another and expect to be in the championship game, I don’t think. Georgia Tech, Duke, and Louisville are already 2-0 in the conference. The Hurricanes are making their ACC debut for the season beating Notre Dame and Florida along the way. Vegas likes MIAF-4.5 and the GCR agrees that the miracle comeback season for the Seminoles will take another hit at MIAF 58% and to cover.

…..

That’s it for today. There are over 100 games this weekend. Watch the big ones but find a way to watch some of the FCS teams and smaller FBS schools. Thank you for reading and, especially, for sharing with others. We grow because of our readers who share our love of college football. With no further ado, here are all the games this weekend. Happy watching, JoJo and G.

Time (Eastern)Away Team (Record/
GCR Rank)
Conf (Rec)Home Team (Record/
GCR Rank)
Conf (Rec)VegasGCR WinGCR CoverTV
ACC (17 teams) – Core 4
12:00Boston College
(1-3/109)
ACC (0-2)Pittsburgh (2-2/71)ACC (0-1)PITT-6.5PITT 65%PITTACCN
12:00Clemson (1-3/91)ACC (0-2)North Carolina
(2-2/87)
ACC (0-0)CLEM-14.5NCAR 62%NCARESPN
1:00Wake Forest (2-2/73)ACC (0-2)Virginia Tech (2-3/95)ACC (1-0)VT-6.5WF 57%WFThe CW
2:00Campbell (1-4/230)CAA (1-1)NC St
(3-2/48)
ACC (2-2)NCST 89%ACCX
3:30Virginia (4-1/17)ACC (2-1)Louisville (4-0/4)ACC (1-0)LOU-6.5LOU 61%LOUESPN2
3:30Syracuse (3-2/70)ACC (1-1)SMU (2-2/78)ACC (0-0)SMU-17.5SMU 55%SYRACCN
7:30Miami FL
(4-0/13)
ACC (0-0)Florida St
(3-1/37)
ACC (0-1)MIAF-4.5MIAF 58%MIAFABC
10:30Duke (3-2/46)ACC (2-0)California (4-1/41)ACC (1-0)DUKE-2.5CAL 64%CALESPN
Idle – Georgia Tech (5-0/23), Stanford (2-3/81)
Big 12 (16 teams) – Core 4
FRI 10:30West Virginia (2-3/101)B12 (0-2)BYU (4-0/15)B12 (1-0)BYU-19.5BYU 94%BYUESPN
12:00Kansas St
(2-3/68)
B12 (1-2)Baylor (3-2/65)B12 (1-1)BAY-6.5BAY 63%BAYESPN+
12:00Iowa St
(5-0/9)
B12 (2-0)Cincinnati (3-1/45)B12 (1-0)CIN-1.5IAST 60%IASTESPN2
3:00Oklahoma St (1-3/125)B12 (0-1)Arizona (3-1/36)B12 (1-1)ARIZ-20.5ARIZ 86%ARIZTNT/TruTV
7:00Texas Tech (4-0/6)B12 (1-0)Houston (4-0/22)B12 (1-0)TXTC-11.5TXTC 54%HOUESPN
7:30Colorado (2-3/52)B12 (0-2)TCU (3-1/25)B12 (0-1)TCU-13.5TCU 77%TCUFox
7:30Kansas (3-2/43)B12 (1-1)UCF (3-1/54)B12 (0-1)KAN-4.5UCF 58%UCFESPN2
Idle – Arizona St (4-1/14), Utah (4-1/20)
Big Ten (18 teams) – Core 4
12:00Wisconsin (2-2/74)B10 (0-1)Michigan (3-1/10)B10 (1-0)MICH-17.5MICH 70%MICHFox
12:00Illinois (4-1/16)B10 (1-1)Purdue (2-2/80)B10 (0-1)ILL-9.5ILL 70%ILLBTN
3:30Penn St
(3-1/33)
B10 (0-1)UCLA (0-4/134)B10 (0-1)PSU-24.5PSU 96%PSUCBS
3:30ULM (3-1/69)SUN (1-0)Northwestern (2-2/96)B10 (1-1)NW-11.5ULM 64%ULMBTN
3:30Washington (3-1/29)B10 (0-1)Maryland (4-0/18)B10 (1-0)WASH-6.5MARY 67%MARYBTN
4:00Michigan St (3-1/50)B10 (0-1)Nebraska (3-1/40)B10 (0-1)NEB-11.5NEB 57%MISTFS1
7:00Minnesota (3-1/49)B10 (1-0)Ohio St
(4-0/2)
B10 (1-0)OHST-23.5OHST 71%MINNPeacock/NBC
Idle – Indiana (5-0/1), Iowa (3-2/47), Oregon (5-0/3), Rutgers (3-2/66), Southern Cal (4-1/5)
SEC (16 teams) – Core 4
12:00Kentucky (2-2/79)SEC (0-2)Georgia (3-1/30)SEC (1-1)GEO-20.5GEO 65%KENTABC
3:30Vanderbilt (5-0/8)SEC (1-0)Alabama (3-1/19)SEC (1-0)ALA-10.5VAND 63%VANDESPN
3:30Texas (3-1/51)SEC (0-0)Florida (1-3/107)SEC (0-1)TEX-6.5TEX 70%TEXABC
4:00Kent St
(1-3/127)
MAC (0-1)Oklahoma (4-0/7)SEC (1-0)OKLA-45.5OKLA 92%KTSTSECN
7:30Mississippi St
(4-1/34)
SEC (0-1)Texas A&M (4-0/12)SEC (1-0)TAM-14.5TAM 58%MSSTSECN
Idle – Arkansas (2-3/85), Auburn (3-2/44), LSU (4-1/35), Mississippi (5-0/11), Missouri (5-0/24), South Carolina (3-2/61), Tennessee (4-1/28)
AAC (14 teams) – Group of 5
FRI 7:00Charlotte (1-3/154)AAC (0-1)South Florida (3-1/56)AAC (0-0)SFLA-28.5SFLA 79%SFLAESPN2
12:00Air Force
(1-3/126)
MWC (0-3)Navy (4-0/32)AAC (3-0)NAVY-12.5NAVY 87%NAVYParamount+/CBS
12:00Army (1-3/106)AAC (0-2)UAB (2-2/93)AAC (0-1)ARMY-6.5UAB 59%UABESPNU
1:00UTSA (2-2/100)AAC (0-0)Temple (2-2/89)AAC (0-0)UTSA-6.5TEMP 54%TEMPESPN+
7:00FAU (1-3/124)AAC (0-1)Rice (3-2/82)AAC (1-1)RICE-4.5RICE 68%RICEESPN+
8:00Tulsa (2-3/114)AAC (0-2)Memphis (5-0)AAC (1-0)MEM-20.5MEM 88%MEMESPNU
Idle – East Carolina (3-2/62), North Texas (5-0/27), Tulane (4-1/39)
C-USA (12 teams) – Group of 5
THU 9:00Sam Houston
(0-4/142)
USA (0-1)New Mexico St (2-2/98)USA (0-1)SHOU-1.5NMST 75%NMSTCBS Sports
FRI 7:00W Kentucky (4-1/75)USA (2-0)Delaware
(3-1/64)
USA (1-0)DEL-2.5pickWKYCBS Sports
3:30FIU (2-2/115)USA (0-1)UCONN (3-2/83)USA (0-0)UCON-7.5FIU 56%FIUCBS Sports
Idle – Jacksonville St (2-3/116), Kennesaw St (3-2/92), LA Tech (4-1/42), Liberty (1-4/137), Middle Tennessee (1-4/155), Missouri St (2-3/118), UTEP (1-4/130)
FBS Independents (2 teams) – Notre Dame=Core 4,
UCONN=Group of 5
3:30Boise St
(3-1/58)
MWC (0-1)Notre Dame (2-2/26)IND (0-0)ND-20.5ND 58%BOSTPeacock/NBC
OOC – UCONN (FIU-USA)
Idle – none
MAC (13 teams) – Group of 5
12:00Ohio (3-2/76)MAC (1-0)Ball St
(1-3/132)
MAC (0-0)OHIO-14.5OHIO 64%BLSTCBS Sports
2:30W Michigan (2-3/86)MAC (1-0)UMASS (0-4/178)MAC (0-0)WMI-13.5WMI 66%WMIESPN+
3:30E Michigan (1-4/139)MAC (0-1)Buffalo (2-3/103)MAC (1-0)BUFF-10.5BUFF 63%BUFFESPN+
3:30C Michigan (3-2/108)MAC (1-0)Akron (1-4/145)MAC (0-1)CMI-7.5CMI 62%CMIESPN+
3:30Miami OH (1-3/121)MAC (0-0)N Illinois
(1-3/111)
MAC (0-0)MIAO-4.5MIAO 52%NILLESPN+
OOC – Kent St (@Oklahoma-SEC)
Idle – Bowling Green (2-3/103), Toledo (3-2/72)
Mountain West (12 teams) – Group of 5
FRI 10:00New Mexico
(3-1/59)
MWC (0-0)San Jose St (1-3/123)MWC (0-0)SJST-2.5NMEX 70%NMEXFS1
FRI 10:30Colorado St (1-3/135)MWC (0-0)San Diego St (3-1/57)MWC (0-0)SDST-6.5SDST 77%SDSTCBS Sports
7:00UNLV (4-0/67)MWC (0-0)Wyoming (2-2/112)MWC (0-0)UNLV-3.5UNLV 71%UNLVCBS Sports
10:30Nevada (1-3/131)MWC (0-0)Fresno St
(4-1/60)
MWC (1-0)FRST-13.5FRST 78%FRSTCBS Sports
OOC – Air Force (@Navy-AAC), Boise St (@Notre Dame-IND)
Idle – Hawaii (4-2/84), Utah St (3-2/77)
Pac-12 (2 teams) – Group of 5
3:30Oregon St (0-5/110)P12 (0-0)App St
(2-2/88)
SUN (0-1)APST-1.5APST 84%APSTESPN+
Idle – Washington St (3-2/63)
Sun Belt (14 teams) – Group of 5
3:30James Madison
(3-1/38)
SUN (1-0)Georgia St (1-3/105)SUN (0-0)JMU-19.5JMU 84%JMUESPN+
4:00Texas St
(3-1/55)
SUN (0-0)Arkansas St (1-4/120)SUN (0-1)TXST-13.5TXST 79%TXSTESPN+
6:00Coastal Car (2-2/94)SUN (1-0)Old Dominion
(3-1/31)
SUN (0-0)OD-20.5OD 74%ODESPN+
7:00South Alabama
(1-4/117)
SUN (0-1)Troy (2-2/97)SUN (0-0)TROY 1.5TROY 67%TROYESPN+
OOC – App St (Oregon St-P12), ULM (@Northwestern-B10)
Idle – Ga Southern (2-3/90), Louisiana (2-3/99), Marshall (2-3/102), Southern Miss (3-2/53)
Big Sky (12 teams) – FCS
5:00Montana St (3-2/144)SKY (1-0)N Arizona
(4-1/161)
SKY (1-0)NAZ 58%ESPN+
7:00Portland St (0-5/246)SKY (0-1)E Washington (1-4/221)SKY (0-1)EWAS 74%ESPN+
8:00Montana (4-0/146)SKY (1-0)Idaho St
(2-3/163)
SKY (1-0)MONT 60%ESPN+
8:00UC Davis
(3-1/159)
SKY (1-0)Cal Poly
(3-2/162)
SKY (1-0)UCD 52%ESPN+
Idle – Idaho (2-3/158), N Colorado (2-3/231), Sacramento St (2-3/182), Weber St (2-3/207)
Big South/Ohio Valley (9 teams) – FCS
1:00W Illinois
(1-4/144)
BSOV (0-1)Tennessee Tech
(4-0/136)
BSOV (1-0)TNTC 82%ESPN+
1:30Charleston So (1-4/225)BSOV (0-1)Gardner Webb
(2-2/175)
BSOV (0-0)GW 62%ESPN+
2:00Tennessee
Martin
(1-4/262)
BSOV (1-0)Lindenwood (2-3/218)BSOV (1-0)LIN 66%ESPN+
3:00Tennessee St (1-3/249)BSOV (0-1)E Illinois
(2-2/204)
BSOV (1-0)EILL 71%ESPN+
Idle – SEMO (1-4/253)
Coastal (14 teams) – FCS
FRI 7:00Rhode
Island
(4-1/168)
CAA (2-0)Brown (1-1/133)IVY (0-1)RISL 53%ESPN+
1:00Villanova (2-2/191)CAA (1-1)New Hampshire (3-2/156)CAA (1-0)NH 70%FloFootball
1:00Delaware St (3-2/173)MEAC (0-0)Monmouth (3-1/166)CAA (1-0)MON 63%FloFootball
2:00Maine (1-4/250)CAA (1-1)Bryant (2-3/211)CAA (0-2)MAIN 63%FloFootball
3:30Stony Brook (2-3/197)CAA (0-1)Albany (1-4/232)CAA (0-1)SB 53%FloFootball
3:30North Carolina A&T
(1-4/260)
CAA (1-1)William & Mary
(2-4/193)
CAA (1-1)W&M 68%FloFootball
4:00Norfolk St (1-4/256)MEAC (0-0)Hampton (1-4/243)CAA (0-2)HAM 62%FloFootball
4:00Elon (3-2/177)CAA (1-0)Towson (3-2/165)CAA (1-1)ELON 54%FloFootball
OOC – Cambell (@NC St-ACC)
Idle – none
FCS Independent (2 teams) – FCS
12:00Sacred Heart (4-1/176)FCS (0-0)C Connecticut (2-3/206)NEC (1-0)SH 52%NEC Front Row
1:00Robert Morris
(1-3/248)
NEC (0-0)Merrimack (2-3/223)FCS (0-0)MERR 63%ESPN+
Idle – none
Ivy League (8 teams) – FCS
FRI 7:30Columbia (1-1/186)IVY (0-0)Princeton (1-1/179)IVY (0-0)PRIN 60%ESPNU
12:00Yale (2-0/141)IVY (1-0)Lehigh (5-0/129)PAT (2-0)LEH 57%ESPN+
1:00Dartmouth (2-0/138)IVY (0-0)Penn (1-1/174)IVY (0-0)DART 57%ESPN+
2:00Harvard (2-0/1-4)IVY (1-0)Holy Cross (0-5/209)PAT (0-1)HARV 81%ESPN+
2:00Colgate (1-3/220)PAT (1-0)Cornell (0-2/224)IVY (0-1)COLG 55%ESPN+
OOC – Brown (Rhode Island-CAA)
Idle – none
MEAC (6 teams) – FCS
1:00Morgan St (2-3/234)MEAC (0-0)Georgetown (2-3/196)PAT (0-1)GTOW 70%ESPN+
1:30Savannah St (NA)NASouth Carolina St (2-3/227)MEAC (0-0)ESPN+
OOC – Delaware St (@Monmouth-CAA), Norfolk St (@Hampton-CAA)
Idle – Howard (3-2/192), Norfolk St (1-4/256)
Missouri Valley (10 teams) – FCS
3:00Murray St
(0-4/264)
MVC (0-0)South Dakota (2-3/172)MVC (0-1)SDAK 73%ESPN+
5:00North Dakota
(2-2/149)
MVC (0-0)N Iowa
(2-2/198)
MVC (0-0)NDAK 55%ESPN+
6:00South Dakota St
(4-0/128)
MVC (0-0)Youngstown
St (3-1/169)
MVC (0-0)SDKS 60%ESPN+
7:00North Dakota St
(4-0/113)
MVC (1-0)Illinois St
(3-1/148)
MVC (0-0)NDST 69%ESPN+
7:00Indiana St (2-2/180)MVC (0-0)S Illinois
(3-1/153)
MVC (0-0)SILL 75%ESPN+
Idle – none
Northeast (9 teams) – FCS
12:00Stonehill (2-3/217)NEC (1-0)Duquesne (2-3/235)NEC (1-0)STON 53%NEC Front Row
1:00Long Island (1-4/226)NEC (0-1)Mercyhurst (1-4/202)NEC (1-0)MHUR 58%ESPN+
1:00Pace (NA)NANew Haven (2-3/240)NEC (0-2)NEC Front Row
OOC – C Connecticut (Sacred Heart-FCS), Robert Morris (@Merrimack-FAC)
Idle – St Francis (0-5/263), Wagner (1-4/247)
Patriot League (8 teams) – FCS
12:00Richmond (3-2/185)PAT (0-1)Bucknell (3-2/203)PAT (0-1)RICH 55%ESPN+
12:30Fordham (1-4/261)PAT (1-1)Lafayette (3-2/164)PAT (1-0)LAF 77%ESPN+
OOC – Colgate (@Cornell-IVY), Georgetown (Morgan St-MEAC), Holy Cross (Harvard-IVY), Lehigh (Yale-IVY)
Idle – none
Pioneer League (11 teams) – FCS
12:00San Diego (3-2/200)PFL (1-0)Marist (2-2/195)PFL (0-1)MARI 63%ESPN+
1:00Valparaiso (1-3/242)PFL (0-0)Drake (1-2/219)PFL (0-0)DRAK 56%ESPN+
1:00Dayton (3-1/184)PFL (1-0)Morehead St (2-3/228)PFL (0-1)DAY 60%ESPN+
1:00Davidson (1-3/258)PFL (0-0)Steton (1-4/252)PFL (0-1)STET 58%ESPN+
2:00Butler (3-2/212)PFL (1-0)St Thomas (2-2/190)PFL (0-1)STTH 60%Midco Sports +
Idle – Presbyerian (5-0/147)
SoCon (9 teams) – FCS
1:30W Carolina (2-3/236)SoCon (1-0)Wofford (0-4/241)SoCon (0-1)pickESPN+
1:30Chattanooga (1-4/189)SoCon (0-1)VMI (1-3/214)SoCon (0-0)CHAT 56%ESPN+
2:00E Tennessee St (2-3/167)SoCon (0-1)Furman (3-1/171)SoCon (1-0)FUR 67%ESPN+
4:00Samford (0-5/265)SoCon (0-3)Mercer (3-1/152)SoCon (3-0)MERC 92%ESPN+
Idle – Citadel (2-3/213)
Southland (10 teams) – FCS
4:00Nicholls (1-4/237)SLAN (1-0)Lamar (3-1/157)SLAN (0-0)LAM 77%ESPN+
7:00Steph F Austin
(3-2/170)
SLAN (1-0)Incarnate Word(2-3/201)SLAN (0-1)SFA 54%ESPN+
7:00East Texas (0-4/251)SLAN (0-0)Northwestern St (1-3/233)SLAN (0-0)NWST 61%ESPN+
7:00Southeastern (3-2/151)SLAN (1-0)McNeese (1-4/237)SLAN (0-1)SELA 67%ESPN+
8:00Houston Chr (1-3/238)SLAN (0-0)Rio Grande (4-1/181)SLAN (0-1)RG 60%ESPN+
Idle – none
SWAC (12 teams) – FCS
3:00Bethune (2-3/215)SWAC (1-0)Alabama St (3-1/150)SWAC (2-0) SWAC TV
4:00Prairie View (3-2/199)SWAC (2-0)Alcorn St (
0-4/255)
SWAC (0-2) SWAC TV
5:00Jackson St (3-1/160)SWAC (1-0)Alabama A&M
(3-2/229)
SWAC (1-1) HBCUGo
5:00Florida A&M (1-3/257)SWAC (0-1)Mississippi Valley
(0-4/259)
SWAC (0-2) SWAC TV
7:00Ark Pine Bluff
(2-2/216)
SWAC (1-0)Texas Southern
(1-3/239)
SWAC (1-1) SWAC TV
Idle – Grambling St (3-2/208), Southern (1-4/254)
UAC (9 teams) – FCS
3:00N Alabama (1-3/222)UAC (0-0)Abilene Chr (2-3/188)UAC (1-0)ABCH 57%ESPN+
4:00West Georgia
(5-0/143)
UAC (2-0)Austin Peay (3-2/140)UAC (1-1)WGA 52%ESPN+
5:00Utah Tech (1-4/210)UAC (0-1)C Arkansas (1-4/205)UAC (0-1)pickESPN+
7:00S Utah
(1-4/187)
UAC (0-1)Tarleton (5-0/122)UAC (1-0)TARL 85%ESPN+
Idle – none