Welcome back to episode 431 of the GCR blog. This is the time of year of counting down: Christmas is coming, Hanukkah is coming, Kwanzaa is coming, New Year’s is coming, etc. And we have been counting down days until the new FBS playoff format kicks off. That wait is nearly over. Before we get there, the New Orleans Bowl last night gave Sam Houston (10-3/52) its first ever FBS Bowl (in their second FBS season) win 31-26 over Ga Southern (8-5/74). The Bearkats picked off 4 passes including setting the stage on GASO’s first offensive play with a pick 6. The defense was relentless. I mentioned first FBS bowl. In 1952, they won the Shrimp Bowl over Northeastern St (Oklahoma not Massachusetts). In 1953, they won the Refrigerator Bowl over the College of Idaho and won that title again over Middle Tennessee in 1956. In 1958, they lost the Christmas Festival Bowl to Northwestern St. And in 1964, they tied Concordia in the Championship Bowl. They made the FCS playoffs 13 times, winning once in 2020 and boast a 29-13-1 postseason record.
…..
With that win, the GCR is now 6-0 picking the winner and 4-2 against the spread in the postseason. Here are the updated conference standings as of this morning.
| Conf | Total Games | Wins | Losses | Points Scored | Points Allowed | GCR Rating | GCR Rank |
| MWC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 13 | 0.824 | 1 |
| AAC | 8 | 1 | 0 | 42 | 37 | 0.766 | 2 |
| SUN | 8 | 2 | 1 | 83 | 71 | 0.603 | 3 |
| USA | 4 | 1 | 1 | 48 | 53 | 0.488 | 4 |
| B12 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 42 | 0.234 | 5 |
| MAC | 7 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 30 | 0.217 | 6 |
| ACC | 13 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 24 | 0.176 | 7 |
| Big Ten | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 8 |
| IND | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 8 |
| P12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 8 |
| SEC | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 8 |
…..
We have 3 games today beginning at noon (all times Eastern) when the MAC champions Ohio Bobcats (10-3/51) take on the Conference USA champions Jacksonville St Gamecocks (9-4/62) in Orlando’s StaffDNA Cure Bowl on ESPN. Two of the Bobcats 3 losses came against Core 4 competition (Syracuse and Kentucky) and the other was against Miami OH who they took revenge on for the conference title. Since that loss to MIAO, Ohio has rattled off 6 straight victories compiling a 4-2 record against bowl-eligible teams. The only possible negative against this team is their opponents were only 73-86 (.459). The Gamecocks, after a fantastic rookie season in the FBS last year, got off to a very slow 0-3 start, but they turned things around with a strong 8-game winning streak that was broken during rivalry week with a loss to W Kentucky. Like Ohio, JAX took revenge, in this case the next week, in the championship game to earn the title. Also, like Ohio, they played 6 bowl-eligible teams but went 3-3 in those contests – however, 3-1 after that rough start. An easy slate with opponents going 70-89 (.440) helped that run. In most aspects this game looks very close. Two champions. Similar seasons. It should be a good one. Vegas has Ohio-5.5, up from a -2.5 open. The lower spread would have been more attractive to the GCR. Ohio will win 52% but Jacksonville St will keep it within a field goal.
…..
The middle game, showing on ESPN2 and featuring the American Conference runner-up Tulane Green Wave (9-4/41) and the 10th place SEC Florida Gators (7-5/36), we have the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl. Tulane was a preseason favorite to win the AAC but had losses to Memphis and Navy at the season and fell to Army in the championship game. Their only other loss was 34-27 at Kansas St (8-4/25). That means all 4 losses were to bowl-eligible teams (4-4 overall). Sporting a 6-game winning streak in the middle of the season that was stopped by those conference losses at the end. They had an above average strength of schedule, especially for a Group of 5 team as their opponents were 89-70 (.560). The Gators were all but written off early in the season starting 0-5 against eventual bowl-eligible teams. Hot seats and near panic were weekly topics on sports radio. At 4-5, it looked like a bowl game was out of the question. Then the upset LSU (8-4/32). Then they knocked Mississippi (9-3/19) out of the playoffs. Then they beat a bad Florida St team to earn the spot here. They finished 2-5 against bowl-eligible teams and won 7 against opponents who were 83-62 (.572). So, Tulane about as expected and Florida above expectations in the “Pirate” Bowl in Tampa. Vegas opened Florida-13.0 and it dipped to -10.0. The question is: were those big wins at the end of the season for Florida and the 3-game losing streak for Tulane a thing? Vegas clearly thinks so, but the GCR sees Tulane as the better team, barely, and has the Green Wave at 51% and to cover.
…..
The newly formatted playoffs start tonight at 8:00 in South Bend as the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1/3) hosts the Big Ten’s 3rd place team Indiana Hoosiers (11-1/2) who missed the conference championship game due to tiebreakers. Notre Dame, one of only 2 independent teams remaining in 2025, stormed through this season taking on all comers…except N Illinois (7-5/91). The MAC’s 6th place team rolled into South Bend and shocked the football world. To be fair, The Irish won the next 10 games including giving both Army and Navy their first losses of the season. 8-0 against Core 4 competition and 7-1 against bowl-eligible teams, ND has been challenged as opponents were 86-72 (.544). Hats off and congratulations to Indiana who earned double digit wins for the first time in their history. The controversy is a) their opponents were just 61-83 (.424), good for 120th strength of schedule, and b) they gained the windfall of a very top heavy, but not very deep Big Ten this year. The top 6 teams (8+wins) were 62-12 (.838) and the other 12 (7 wins or fewer) were 63-81 (.438). There were 4 teams that won 10 or more (45-5/.900) with the other 14 under .500 (80-88/.476). With 9 conference games (going 8-1), Indiana did not play an outside Core 4 team. They only played 4 bowl-eligible teams going 3-1 with wins vs 6-6 Nebraska, 6-6 Washington, and 7-5 Michigan. One thing I haven’t mentioned yet, is I’m retooling and simplifying the GCR formulas and prediction models for next season, testing them out over the bowl games. In the new model, Indiana is 11th, and Notre Dame is 5th which is, I think, much more accurate. I used that model for the GCR pick tonight because of that. Vegas likes ND-7.0 to win at home and although Indiana has pulled a number of tricks out of their sleeves over the course of the season, the GCR agrees 61% and ND to cover. The table for all 3 games is below.
…..
That’s it for today. Tune in tomorrow for a 5-game set with the next 3 FBS playoff games and the FCS Semifinals. Thank you for reading and sharing with others, G.
| Time | Bowl (Location) | Team | Team | Vegas | GCR Win | GCR Cover |
| 12:00 | StaffDNA Cure (Orlando) | Ohio (10-3/51) | Jacksonville St (9-4/63) | OHIO-5.5 | OHIO 52% | JAX |
| 3:30 | Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla (Tampa) | Tulane (9-4/41) | Florida (7-5/36) | FLA-10.0 | TULN 51% | TULN |
| 8:00 | College Football Playoff Game 1 (@Notre Dame) | Indiana (11-1/2) | Notre Dame (11-1/3) | ND-7.0 | ND 61% | ND |
