Happy Thursday college football fans and I hope you are somewhere safe, healthy, and warm. Rumors are flying over Texas A&M’s replacement in the Gator Bowl with Rutgers (first in line in APR) or a substitute Big Ten team (Illinois has expressed interest). I’ll try to stay on top of it since I know the loyal readers out there, if there are any loyal readers out there, are so entranced by the news, it could negatively impact the holiday season. Seriously, how the NCAA handles this could be important if other games become impacted. Another NCAA ruling about the playoff allows for forfeits to impact the championship. Here’s how I understand it: if a semifinal team cannot field a team, the other team makes the championship via forfeit. If both teams cannot field a team, the winner of the other semifinal is crowned champion, even if through forfeit. The championship game can be rescheduled as late as January 14 (currently January 10), if that proves helpful to field two teams.
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All of that to say, there was a game last night when Army 9-4 (56) took out Missouri 6-7 (64) 24-22 on a last second 41-yard FG using their back up QB in the second half. It was close throughout and looked like Missouri would be able to get the victory, but Army would not be denied. It was a fun game to watch. It does mean that the Power 5 starts this bowl season 0-2 against Group of 5 teams when the Tigers joined Oregon St in that club. Here are the standings going into today’s action.
| Conference | Bowls | Overall Record | vs Power 5 Record | vs Group of 5 Record |
| American | 7 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| ACC | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Big 12 | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Big Ten | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| C-USA | 8 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 |
| Indies | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| MAC | 8 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-4 |
| Mtn West | 8 | 4-0 | 1-0 | 3-0 |
| Pac-12 | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| SEC | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Sun Belt | 4 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 2-1 |
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In the opening bowl today, we get to celebrate a moment of kindness. If you recall, there were 42 bowls and 85 teams available so someone would be left out. The NCAA created a one-time Frisco Football Classic Bowl and added 6-7 Hawaii (next in line) to the available teams and everybody with 6 wins gets to play. Hawaii will play at home in the Hawai’i Bowl tomorrow, and that leads us to the 3:30 (all times Eastern) matchup between the MAC’s Miami OH 6-6 (106) and C-USA’s North Texas 6-6 (128). I don’t know which of these teams would have been left out (or subbing for Texas A&M), but both were on the list. This game won’t be overly interesting from a football standpoint but will be fun to watch in the spirit of the various December holidays. Two teams that are the last picked, last considered getting to play is just fun – and good for their programs. On offense the RedHawks bring an Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) of 101 (they score 10.1 points for every 10 points their opponents allow) and the Mean Green copies that with a 101 DER (Defensive) which means they give up 10 points for every 10.1 points their opponents score. Should be evenly matched there. When North Texas has the ball, they bring an OER of 97 vs a Miami DER of 114. This feels like Miami OH has the slight edge and both Vegas (-2.5) and the GCR (57.5%) agree.
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At 7:00 we have the Gasparilla Bowl where hometown team UCF 8-4 (78) of the American takes on Florida 6-6 (72) of the SEC. Florida had high expectations this season but fell so hard they fired their coach. UCF will have more to play for. On offense UCF brings an OER of 109 vs a DER of 113. When the Gators have the ball, they bring an OER of 118 vs a Knights’ DER of 108. Just on that stat, Florida has the advantage, but playing in Orlando could help UCF. Vegas likes the Florida -7.0, but the GCR sees upset, UCF 55.5%.
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That’s it for today – enjoy football Thursday and look for the next iteration tomorrow. Here are all the games with updated scores, odds, and records. Thanks, G
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