Welcome back, college football fans, for episode #446 of the GCR. Last night was the playoff game we’ve been wanting for some time. After a defensive first quarter, Penn St (13-3/6) took over in the 2nd. Long drawn-out drives, interceptions, and a 10-0 lead with 2:18 to go to the half. Notre Dame (14-1/1) finally got on the board as time expired to go limping into the locker room down 10-3 when it could have been a lot worse. I don’t know what the halftime speech was for the Irish, but they brought energy in the second half. Scoring on their first possession, the score remained knotted at 10 until the 4th. First, ND punched it in less than a minute into the final stanza to take their first lead 17-10. The tide seemed to have turned, and they had all the momentum. But the Nittany Lions drove the field on their next two possessions to retake the lead 24-17 and the seesaw was back in action. A huge 54-yd TD pass with 4:38 tied it up. PSU had a 3-and out followed by a 6-and out for the Irish. Now with just 47 seconds to play, Penn St elected to go for the win. But on the second play, a questionable pass over the middle was intercepted. If you didn’t see the game and have a chance to see the ending, it is a clinic in clock management by Notre Dame. They ran 6 plays in 21 seconds, gaining 19 yards and lining the field goal try in the center with 12 clicks left. The kick was true, albeit nail-biting, and the Fighting Irish will be in the championship game. Final score 27-24.
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That means the GCR is now 31-17 (.646) straight up and 25-23 (.521) against the spread. It also stopped a 5-game ATS losing streak for the GCR. Here are the standings with 2 games to go.
| Conf | Total Games | Games Played | Wins | Losses | Points Scored | Points Allowed | GCR Rating | GCR Rank |
| IND | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 104 | 65 | 0.746 | 1 |
| AAC | 8 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 237 | 201 | 0.574 | 2 |
| MAC | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 229 | 185 | 0.565 | 3 |
| Big Ten | 16 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 432 | 359 | 0.542 | 4 |
| SEC | 15 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 415 | 352 | 0.532 | 5 |
| SUN | 7 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 169 | 208 | 0.466 | 6 |
| B12 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 295 | 299 | 0.433 | 7 |
| ACC | 13 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 338 | 443 | 0.311 | 8 |
| USA | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 88 | 136 | 0.287 | 9 |
| MWC | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 114 | 156 | 0.285 | 10 |
| P12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 35 | 52 | 0.211 | 11 |
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Tonight at 7:30 Eastern from Dallas, we have the second FBS semifinal game at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl in Arlington, TX. This game features the Big Ten’s 3rd place Ohio St Buckeyes (12-2/2) against the SEC’s runner up Texas Longhorns (13-2/3). Ohio St lost to Oregon (13-1) and Michigan (8-5). They also just spanked Oregon last weekend in the rematch. Overall, they were 9-2 vs bowl-eligible (BE) teams and 5-1 against GCR top 25 foes. When they are on offense, they bring an Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) of 158 (2nd in the country) which means they score 15.8 points for every 10.0 their opponents normally allow. Their Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER) is 229 (1st) which means they give up 10.0 points for every 22.9 their opponents normally score. Their average game was 36.4-12.1. The Longhorns beat everybody they played except Georgia, losing twice to the Bulldogs (11-3). They are 10-2 against BE teams 3-2 against GCR top 25. Their OER is 142 (13th) and DER is 193 (4th). Their average score was 34.3-14.5. These two teams only shared one opponent this season with remarkably different results: Michigan. Ohio St lost 13-10 at home while Texas won 31-12 in Ann Arbor. That’s a 24-point difference. I’ll say that if Ohio St plays the near perfect game played against Oregon last week, they may be unbeatable. Vegas thinks so picking OHST-6.0, but the GCR sees something and has Texas winning 50.5% of the time and to cover. I usually just round the halves up, to 51% in the case, but I think it’s important to show the decimal this time. The algorithm is picking Texas by half a point so this could be another exciting game. Watch it on ESPN.
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That’s it for tonight. The next, and final game of the season, is January 20th, so I’ll be back then. I’m working of a few really fun and exciting changes coming soon which I’ll talk more about after the championship game. In the meantime, thank you for reading and sharing with others, G
| Time | Bowl (Location) | Team | Team | Vegas | GCR Win | GCR Cover |
| 7:30 | FBS Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl (Arlington) | Ohio St (12-2/2) | Texas (13-2/3) | OHST-6.0 | TEX 50.5% | TEX |
