Happy Saturday to all of the college football fans out there. For many of us today is a bit of break after the FBS conference championship games and the bowl games, but today is the annual Army-Navy game – the last regular season game every year. On top of that the FCS quarterfinals for the highest-level NCAA endorsed championship are this weekend as well. Predictions for the 5 games are at the bottom of the post, but before then, we’ll talk about each game and then set up how bowl games work in the GCR.
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I’m watching E Tennessee St 11-1 (78) of SoCon invading North Dakota St 11-1 (77) of the Missouri Valley Conference. The Bison are enjoying their 12th straight quarterfinal appearance and are an annual threat for the championship. Vegas thinks the Bison are unstoppable at a whopping NDST -25.5, but the GCR thinks the Buccaneers have a shot to win at ETSU 55.1% which may be the largest upset call the entire season. I can tell you as I enjoy ESPN’s coverage, these teams are really good. The Bucs do not seem to be intimidated at all. The Bison just scored the first points of the game with a short TD and missed 2-point conversion with 7:04 to go in the first half. For those that are wondering about the temperature in Fargo, it’s something like 24 outside, but Gate City Bank Field is in the FargoDome so no cold advantage to the home team.
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Last night, James Madison 11-1 (76) of the Colonial beat visiting Montana 10-2 (106) of the Big Sky. The Dukes pummeled the Grizzlies 28-6 covering Vegas (JMU -8.5) and supporting the efforts of the GCR (JMU 59.5%). JMU will either play E Tennessee St at home or North Dakota St in Fargo next week in the semifinals.
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At 2:00 (all times Eastern), South Dakota St 10-3 (119) of the Missouri Valley Conference visits Villanova 10-2 (101) of the Colonial. Of note, the Jackrabbits are the only team to beat North Dakota St and the Wildcats won the Colonial by beating James Madison. In the second and final upset call of the week, Vegas likes SDKS on the road -7.0, but the GCR gives a home field advantage to the Pennsylvanians, VILL 57.7%.
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To finish up the FCS playoffs, FCS best team and the only undefeated team in the country not named Cincinnati 13-0 (4), Sam Houston 11-0 (64) of the ASUN/WAC Challenge Conference (yes, I’m serious) hosts Montana St 10-2 (105) of the Big Sky tonight at 8:30. This is a game of the Bobcats visiting the Bearkats in the not so friendly confines of Hunstville Texas. In the regular season, SHOU won every home game by 30+ points except the 14-point victory against E Kentucky 7-4 (161). They beat a good Incarnate Word 10-3 (117) in a shootout 49-42 last week, but expect a defensive game this week as the visiting Bobcats have a defensive efficiency rating of 195, good for 4th in the nation. That 195 score means that for every 19.5 point per game their opponents scored, Montana St gave up only 10 points on average. MTST is a good team and could win, but both of their losses came on the road. Vegas has Sam Houston as the favorite -7.5 and the GCR agrees at 63.3%.
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At 3:00 today the annual Army 8-3 (50), who are already set to face Missouri 6-6 (58) in the Armed Forces Bowl later this month, will face a struggling Navy 3-8 (81) squad in East Rutherford, NJ. I love this game. Not only do we have the time to recognize the future military leaders of our country, we get to do it with few distractions (except for the FCS playoffs). It’s a highlight for these young men who have chosen this path for a completely different college experience and young adult life (possibly even a career) that has a unique definition of success. I couldn’t respect these men, and the men and women they represent, along with Air Force 9-3 (45), more. For the game itself, I don’t see Navy overcoming the power of Army this year – Army is the early favorite -3.5 over Missouri as well. Vegas likes the Black Knights today -7.0 over the Midshipmen and the GCR agrees 70.3%.
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In the regular season, the GCR posts all of the expectations for a given week at the same, but the bowl season is different. First, they are spread out from December 17 through January 4th, excluding the National Championship game. Second, they are all on neutral fields (except Hawai’i hosting the Hawai’i Bowl). So, what I do for this time of the year is post every day there is at least one game, focusing on that (those) game(s). At the end of each game, I input it into the program (as opposed to Sunday morning) which means the GCR percentages, and sometimes the expected winners, change. I review the games in a post the next day along with any (updated) predictions for that day’s games. It’s a whirlwind of posts, but the most fun (at least for me) of the entire season.
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As we come to the end of the regular season, I hope you’ve enjoyed the blog and found honesty and fairness in the writing. It’s amazing to me how much drama can occur in just around 3 months and 12ish games. On a personal note, the last year has been a challenge for me in a number of ways and I write this blog mostly for my own psychological health, even this year when I haven’t posted as much as I usually do. I hope that as we all struggle with the frustrations of 2020-2021, this space provides a few moments of respite and escape from reality. I know sports in general, and college football specifically, do that for me.
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That’s it for the day. Thank you for reading. If you like the content, please share with others. If you don’t, please let me know suggestions for improvement. Thanks, G
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