Greetings oh wonderful college football fans from Starkville Mississippi where we brought our daughter today to announce she is attending Mississippi St in the fall. I guess now I will have to pull for the Bulldogs (at least when they aren’t playing the Gamecocks) for a few years. It’s been an exciting day, but tomorrow is another road day as we are heading to Texas for her to see some friends there. All of that to say, it’s a full day of games tomorrow and I have to post tonight.
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But first, there was one game today, that was supposed to be a GCR upset but turned into a rout. In the Quick Lane Bowl out of Detroit, W Michigan 8-5 (53) trounced Nevada 8-5 (76) 52-24 on the backs of their running game (352 yards on the ground) and the secondary (holding the pass happy Wolf Pack to 121 passing yards). They scored early and often running up a 31-10 halftime lead and never looked back. That drops the GCR to a 12-7 record (3-4 in GCR upset games) compared to Vegas straight up to 13-8. It was the Mountain West conference’s first loss and the MAC’s second win. We did have some more bad news. Boise St has withdrawn from the Arizona Bowl and the matchup with C Michigan. I do think the NCAA will try to combine some of these bowls so there won’t be more teams then necessary left out. But for now, here are the updated standings:
| Conference | Bowls | Bowl Change | Overall Record | vs Power 5 Record | vs Group of 5 Record |
| American | 4 | -3 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| ACC | 7 | -3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Big 12 | 7 | N/C | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Big Ten | 10 | +1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| C-USA | 8 | N/C | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3-5 |
| Indies | 4 | N/C | 2-1 | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| MAC | 7 | -1 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-5 |
| Mtn West | 6 | -2 | 4-1 | 1-0 | 3-1 |
| Pac-12 | 5 | -1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| SEC | 12 | -1 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Sun Belt | 4 | N/C | 3-1 | 0-0 | 3-1 |
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Starting off a 5-game set tomorrow with a noon kickoff (all times Eastern), we have the Birmingham Bowl with Houston 11-2 (23) of the American facing Auburn 6-6 (41) of the SEC. Houston had bookend losses with a week 1 defeat at the hands of Texas Tech (58) and a conference championship loss to Cincinnati (4) – both bowl eligible. Along the way they beat Tulsa, East Carolina, SMU, and Memphis (all bowl eligible teams although 3 are part of the cancellations). The Cougars have a decent resume facing the Tigers. Auburn had an up and down season with wins vs Georgia St, LSU, Arkansas, and Mississippi (all bowl eligible) coupled with losses to Penn St, Georgia, and a 4-game losing streak to end the season to Texas A&M, Mississippi St, South Carolina, and Alabama (all bowl eligible). When the Cougars have the ball, they line up with an Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) of 123 (they score 12.3 points for every 10 their opponents normally allow) and will face a Tiger DER (Defensive) of 133 (they allow 10 points for every 13.3 their opponents normally score). When Auburn is on offense, they bring an OER of 126 and will face a Houston DER of 123. In the first of 2 GCR upsets, the GCR has Houston taking down the SEC team 64.3% of the time. Vegas has Auburn eking out a victory -2.0.
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At 3:15 the First Responder Bowl out of Dallas where Louisville 6-6 (54) of the ACC will try to shoot down Air Force 9-3 (42) of the Mountain West. This will be the 5th game between a Power 5 team and a Group of 5 team (the Group of 5 are 3-0 pending the Birmingham Bowl results) and it’s possible so it’s possible for a sweep going into the only one remaining: Cincinnati and Alabama in the semifinal). When the Cardinals have the ball, they’ll bring an OER of 124 (42nd in the nation) against a staunch Falcon DER of 132 (40th in the nation). When Air Force brings their rushing offense on the field (341.4 yards per game – best in the nation), an OER of 123 will be offset by Louisville’s DER of 113 (and a rushing defense rated 141st in the nation). Vegas likes the Cardinals in another close one -1.5, but in the second upset, the GCR thinks Air Force wears them down 59.4%.
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At 6:45 Texas Tech 6-6 (58) of the Big 12 will take on Mississippi St 7-5 (40) of the SEC in Memphis’ Liberty Bowl. This is the first game between 2 Power 5 teams this bowl season, so if the GCR is right in the two previous games, a Power 5 team will pick up a win, finally. When the Red Raiders have the ball, an OER of 114 will face a Hail State DER of 117 (both 75th in the nation). When the Bulldogs are on offense, an OER of 124 (48th) will face a Tech DER of just 95 (155th). Vegas thinks Mississippi St wins big -10.0 and the GCR agrees 59.2%.
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At 8:00 in beautiful San Diego we have the Holiday Bowl featuring NC St 9-3 (24) of the ACC and UCLA 8-4 (45) of the Pac-12. NC St beat Clemson in week 4 which all but eliminated the Tigers (who also lost to Georgia in week 1) from their annual appearance in the playoffs. UCLA looked strong early with a beat down of Hawaii and an 11-point victory over LSU (who later proved not to be quite the win as we thought at the time), before joining the rest of the Pac-12 in mediocrity with a loss to Fresno St of the Mountain West (see the theme of G5 wins over P5 teams is a season-long thing). When the Wolfpack, they bring an OER of 122 to face a Bruin DER of 98. UCLA will line up an OER of 141 (15th in the nation) to face State’s DER of 150 (23rd). Vegas thinks this one will be close – NCST -2.0 and the GCR agrees although by a wider margin – NCST 62.4%.
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The late game, with a 10:15 kickoff, aka, the Guaranteed Rate Bowl in Phoenix, pits West Virginia 6-6 (64) of the Big 12 and Minnesota 8-4 (44) of the Big Ten. West Virginia was unremarkable most of the season and Minnesota can be summed up as “lost to Ohio St, but scored 31, and lost to Bowling Green 14-10”. The Mountaineers have an unremarkable OER of 95 (146th) and will face a DER of 137 (29th) from the Golden Gophers. Minnesota has an OER of 106 (102nd) and face a WVU DER of 117 (76th). Don’t count on a lot of points in this one – Vegas has the over/under at 44.5. They also have MINN -5.0 which the GCR agrees with 60.7%.
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Those are the games for today. Look for the three Wednesday games on tomorrow’s post from Sulpher Springs, Texas. Yes, I live the life, don’t I? Jealous yet. Below is the list of all games with Vegas odds, records, and rankings updated. Thanks for reading and sharing with others, G
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