We are back, oh great and wonderful college football fans, and the heat is inching up. There are 19 bowl games this week and the teams are getting better, and the stakes are getting higher. Let’s review Saturday’s games.
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Vegas and GCR favorite Arkansas St (6-7/111) fell behind 21-7 with 9:42 in the half to N Illinois (7-6/127) in the Camellia Bowl. The Red Wolves defense stepped up holding the Huskies at bay while the offense sputtered for the most part. A touchdown with 1:14 to go made the score 21-19 and there is sat as the 2-point attempt failed. Vegas 0-1, GCR 0-1/0-1 ATS.
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In the Birmingham Bowl, Duke (8-5/24) took the early lead 14-0 at the half and held on against the Vegas and GCR favorite Troy (11-3/29). The Trojans got their only TD with 5:54 to go, but threw an interception on their final possession. Duke got the win 17-10. Vegas 0-2, GCR 0-2/0-2.
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The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on the blue field in Boise hosted a blowout when Georgia St (7-6/93) trounced Utah St (6-7/115) 45-22. These teams combined for 35 points in the first quarter alone. The Aggies had a scoring drought, though, from 3:41 in the first to 4:48 in the fourth when the game was already gone. GAST scored 31 during that time. I don’t often call out players, but Freddie Brock of Georgia St ran 276 yards on 24 carries and a score. Not a bad Saturday for the young man. Vegas 0-3, GCR 1-2, 1-2.
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James Madison’s magic season came to an end with their first ever bowl appearance. Unfortunately for the Dukes, it was their second loss of the season (11-2/19). Credit goes to Air Force (9-4/62) who stopped a 4-game losing streak to defend the Armed Forces Bowl, 31-21. Air Force owned the ground game and put pressure on JMU’s offense leading to the victory over the favored invaders. Vegas 0-4, GCR 1-3, 1-3.
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E Michigan (6-7/131) had the viral sucker punch following the game, but nothing else against the heavily favored South Alabama (7-6/87) in the most mismatched bowl game so far this season; the 68 Ventures Bowl (don’t ask because I have no idea). Total yards were 627-150, first downs 29-10, and SALA cruised to a 59-10 swamping. The Jaguars didn’t score in the 4th or it could have been much worse – going into that quarter it was 59-3. EMI scored a TD with less than a minute to play. Vegas 1-4, GCR 2-3, 2-3.
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The Las Vegas Bowl was just 7-0 with Northwestern (8-5/50) leading going into the 4th quarter. There were just 501 yards gained combined in the matchup of good defenses. Utah (8-5/41) tied the game with 12:38 to go, but the Wildcats pushed through with 6:19 to go in the last score of the game. NW 14-7. Vegas 1-5, GCR 2-4, 2-4.
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In the final game Saturday, played in beautiful Hawaii, Vegas favorite San Jose St (7-6/92) didn’t score until the 4th quarter and fell to GCR favorite Coastal Carolina (8-5/76) 24-14. Vegas 1-6, GCR 3-4, 3-4.
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Now that 17 games have been played, it’s time to compare the conferences. The Sun Belt has played the most games (11) and have just a single game left (along with Conference USA and the Independents). Neither the Independents (meaning Notre Dame) nor the SEC have played a game yet.
| Conference | Record | GCR Pred | PF-PA | Winners | Losers | GCR Miss | Still to Play |
| American | 2-0 (1000) | 1-1 (500) | 80-17 | UTSA, South Florida | — | South Florida | Rice, Tulane, SMU, Memphis |
| ACC | 2-1 (667) | 1-2 (333) | 47-62 | Georgia Tech, Duke | Syracuse | Georgia Tech, Duke | Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Louisville, Boston College, Miami FL, NC St, Clemson, Florida St |
| Big 12 | 1-1 (500) | 1-1 (500) | 51-44 | Texas Tech | UCF | UCF | Kansas, West Virginia, Oklahoma St, Kansas St, Oklahoma, Iowa St, Texas |
| Big Ten | 1-0 (1000) | 0-1 (000) | 14-7 | Northwestern | — | Northwestern | Minnesota, Rutgers, Ohio St, Penn St, Maryland, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan |
| C-USA | 2-1 (667) | 2-1 (667) | 82-103 | Jacksonville St, W Kentucky | New Mexico St | New Mexico St | Liberty |
| IND | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | — | — | — | Notre Dame |
| MAC | 2-2 (500) | 2-2 (500) | 81-112 | Ohio, N Illinois | Miami OH, E Michigan | Miami OH, N Illinois | Bowling Green, Toledo |
| MWC | 2-3 (400) | 3-2 (600) | 126-135 | Fresno St, Air Force | Boise St, Utah St, San Jose St | Fresno St, Air Force | UNLV, Wyoming |
| Pac 12 | 1-2 (333) | 2-1 (667) | 56-70 | UCLA | California, Utah | Utah | Southern Cal, Arizona, Oregon St, Oregon, Washington |
| SEC | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | — | — | — | Texas A&M, Kentucky, Missouri, Mississippi, Auburn, Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, Alabama |
| SUN | 4-7 (364) | 7-4 (636) | 285-272 | App St, Georgia St, South Alabama, Coastal Carolina | Ga Southern, Louisiana, Old Dominion, Marshall, Arkansas St, Troy, James Madison | App St, Arkansas St, Troy, James Madison | Texas St |
| Overall | 17-17 | 19-15 (559) |
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For the season, the GCR is 576-212 (.731) in FBS games straight up, 384-199 (.659) in FCS games straight up, 353-313 (.530) in games against the spread. In highlighted games, the GCR is now 74-28 (.725) straight up and 42-24 (.636) against the spread.
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We have 3 games today so let’s dig into them a bit. First, in the Quick Lane Bowl played in Detroit, with a 2:00 (all times Eastern) kickoff, Bowling Green Falcons (7-5/58) of the MAC takes on the lone team with a losing record in the bowl season, Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-7/153) of the Big Ten. Let’s look at the tale of the tape. As a reminder, OER stands for Offensive Efficiency Rating and DER for Defensive Efficiency Rating.
| Team | OER/PPG | DER/PPG | Opp’s Record – Rank | Vs Bowl Teams | Best Win | Worst Loss |
| BG | 113 (79th)/26.3 | 110 (86th)/23.5 | 87-63 (.580) – 52nd | 1-5 (.167) | Georgia Tech (7-6/43) | Ohio (10-3/49) |
| MINN | 92 (161st)/20.2 | 93 (162nd)/26.9 | 87-62 (.584) – 17th | 3-5 (.375) | Iowa (10-3/16) | Illinois (5-7/73) |
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Vegas has been shifting the last few days, but lands on Minnesota -3.0. Yes, they are a Big Ten team who played a much more difficult schedule, but the GCR numbers support Bowling Green to upset and cover.
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The Sun Belt gets its final game, the Texas St Bobcats (7-3/103) take on the Rice Owls (6-6/100) of the American in Dallas’s First Responder Bowl at 5:30.
| Team | OER/PPG | DER/PPG | Opp’s Record – Rank | Vs Bowl Teams | Best Win | Worst Loss |
| TXST | 128 (35th)/36.0 | 79 (231st)/33.8 | 70-81 (.404) – 120th | 2-5 (.286) | South Alabama (7-6/87) | Louisiana (6-7/124) |
| RICE | 115 (69th)/30.3 | 99 (129th)/26.7 | 73-75 (.493) – 93rd | 0-5 (.000) | Houston (4-8/90) | UCONN (3-9/112) |
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Vegas likes Texas St -3.5 and the GCR agrees in a high-scoring affair, TXST wins and covers.
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In our final game, with a 9:00 kickoff in lovely Phoenix, the Kansas Jayhawks (8-5/30) of the Big 12 take on the UNLV Rebels (9-4/69), the runners up for the Mountain West title, in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.
| Team | OER/PPG | DER/PPG | Opp’s Record – Rank | Vs Bowl Teams | Best Win | Worst Loss |
| KAN | 127 (37th)/33.6 | 113 (80th)/25.8 | 78-69 (.531) – 36th | 3-4 (.429) | Oklahoma (10-2/11) | Texas Tech (7-6/42) |
| UNLV | 129 (33rd)/34.3 | 100 (125th)/27.0 | 81-81 (.500) – 104th | 2-4 (.333) | Wyoming (8-4/56) | San Jose St (7-6/92) |
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Vegas likes the Jayhawks -12.5 and the GCR agrees with the Kansas victory in another high-scoring game, but UNLV will cover. KAN to win, UNLV to cover.
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That’s it for today. Thank you for reading and sharing with others, G
