Hello college football fans to the shortest day of the year in the northern hemisphere. To steal from a friend’s meme: it only gets brighter from here. Yesterday there was just the one game in which Tulsa 7-6 (73) ran all over Old Dominion 6-7 (134). The Monarchs got the game off to an incredible start with a 100-yd kickoff return, but Tulsa scored on its first possession as well. After that, the game looked closer than it was, if you were just monitoring the score, but the Golden Hurricane racked up 529 yards of offense to OD’s 247. A late TD made the Myrtle Beach Bowl look respectable with a final of 30-17. Both Vegas and the GCR picked the winner so our records are now 7-5 and 8-4 respectively.
…..
Both games today are GCR upsets so I can pad the lead over Vegas (like we are in some competition or something), break even, or fall behind. Let’s start with the Idaho Potato Bowl out of the blue field (different than the teal field yesterday) at Boise St with a 3:30 (all times Eastern) kickoff and featuring Wyoming 6-6 (105) of the Mountain West conference and Kent St 7-6 (112) of the MAC. The two conferences are going in opposite directions this bowl season (MWC 2-0, including a Power 5 win, and MAC 0-3). Without a doubt the MWC was better than the MAC during the regular season as well, but none of that matters in this game. Yes, Wyoming plays in Boise every other year at least. But this game is about strength on strength and weakness on weakness. Using my favorite go to homegrown statistics, When Wyoming has the ball, they have the 164th rated Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) with a score of just 90 (they score 9 points for every 10 points their opponents normally give up) and will face an awful Kent St defense with a DER (Defensive) of 79 (they give up 10 points for every 7.9 their opponents normally score) – good for 224th out of the 258 schools in D1. But Kent St managed to win the MAC East. When they have the ball, a respectable 112 OER (79th) will face a Cowboy DER of 116 (also 79th). If the Golden Flashes can get on the board early, I think they can win. If they have trouble scoring early, the Wyoming defense will win the day. The more total points scored, the more likely the MAC gets its first bowl victory of the season. Vegas likes Wyoming -3.5, but the GCR thinks the Flashes can score enough, but just barely 56.9%.
…..
At 7:30, we have a fantastic matchup in the Frisco Bowl when two teams with a combined record of 23-3 meet in Texas. Fresno St 11-2 (20) of the Mountain West will face a near-Cinderella team in UTSA 12-1 (13) of C-USA. The Bulldogs are coming off a lopsided loss for the MWC championship to Utah St (who won a couple of days ago over Oregon St) while UTSA triumphed for its first conference championship over W Kentucky (who beat App St earlier). I know early bowl games can seem sort of ho-hum with a bunch of 6-6 teams from Group of 5 conferences playing (although they are a lot of fun to watch – this is the audition for some of the kids to be seen by a pro scout, undistracted by other, bigger games). But this one is a real bowl game – two really good teams fighting it out on the field. When Fresno St lines up behind center, they bring an OER of 121 (63rd) and will face a DER of 116 (81). On the flip side, UTSA brings a high-powered offense with an OER of 130 (32nd) to attack a Bulldog DER of 120 (67th). I don’t think this game will be decided until late in the 4th. Two teams with a lot to play for. Vegas thinks the Bulldogs win out: FRST -3.0, but I like UTSA playing in their home state and looking for a near-perfect 13-1 season: UTSA 61.0%.
…..
Here are the standings so far:
| Conference | Bowls | Overall Record | Power 5 Record | Group of 5 Record |
| American | 7 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| ACC | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Big 12 | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Big Ten | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| C-USA | 8 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 3-3 |
| Indies | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| MAC | 8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-3 |
| Mtn West | 8 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Pac-12 | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| SEC | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Sun Belt | 4 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 2-1 |
…..
And here are all the games with the latest rankings and Vegas lines. Thanks for reading and enjoy these bowls today, G
…..
