Welcome back, oh great and wonderful college football fans, to episode 442 of the GCR. Yesterday we had the final FBS quarterfinal game, aka the Sugar Bowl, between Notre Dame (13-1/1) and Georgia (11-3/7). Without QB1 Beck, who was injured and declared for the draft, the Bulldogs looked lost on offense. Notre Dame came prepared and looked like the best team in the country winning 23-10. As you can see, they took over the top spot that Ohio St earned the day before. I was telling some friends on New Year’s Eve that the championship game will likely be the winner of the Ohio St/Oregon game and the winner of the Sugar Bowl. I can see Texas making a run, but it still looks like Ohio St/Notre Dame to me at this point – more on that later. In the second game, Mississippi (10-3/15) exposed Duke (9-4/33) weaknesses, took advantage of size and speed differences, and cruised to a 52-20 shellacking. The ACC is now 2-10 in bowl games with just one to go.
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Counting today, there are 7 games left: First Responder and Mayo Bowls today, the Bahamas Bowl on Saturday, the FCS Championship game on January 6th, the FBS semifinals on January 9th and 10th, and the FBS Championship game on January 20th. With 43 games played, the GCR is now 28-15 (.651) straight up and 24-19 (.558) against the spread. Here are the standings by FBS conference to date:
| Conf | Total Games | Games Played | Wins | Losses | Points Scored | Points Allowed | GCR Rating | GCR Rank |
| IND | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 77 | 41 | 0.761 | 1 |
| AAC | 8 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 209 | 171 | 0.613 | 2 |
| Big Ten | 16 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 384 | 312 | 0.539 | 3 |
| SEC | 15 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 415 | 352 | 0.532 | 4 |
| MAC | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 203 | 178 | 0.530 | 5 |
| B12 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 295 | 299 | 0.433 | 6 |
| SUN | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 139 | 180 | 0.424 | 7 |
| ACC | 13 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 318 | 419 | 0.310 | 8 |
| USA | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 81 | 110 | 0.310 | 9 |
| MWC | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 114 | 156 | 0.285 | 10 |
| P12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 35 | 52 | 0.211 | 11 |
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Our first game today, with a 4:00 (all times Eastern) kickoff from Dallas is the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl featuring the American Conference’s 9th place North Texas Mean Green (6-6/101) and the Sun Belt West Division’s 2nd place Texas St Bobcats (7-5/90). The Mean Green (love that mascot, which is a bird, somehow!) started out really hot going 5-1 in the first half including beating the Sun Belt’s South Alabama (7-6), who are the only team from Alabama to win a post-season game, by 14. Then they dropped 5 straight against bowl eligible (BE) teams before closing the season by beating Temple (3-9). For the season, they were just 1-6 against BE teams. Their offense if pretty good, ranking 43rd nationally, but their defense is horrible (198th). Texas St had a sing-song season: win 2, lose 2, win 2, lose 2, win 2, lose 1, win 1. They also beat South Alabama, by 7, en route to a 26th ranked offense and a 110th ranked defense. They were 3-3 against BE teams. There should be a lot of points scored in this game. The two teams shared another opponent (7-6 UTSA). NTEX lost by 21 and TXST won by 39. Vegas likes TXST-14.0 and the GCR agrees 65% and to cover in a wild, wild game. Watch on ESPN.
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Our penultimate non-playoff bowl of the season, with a 7:30 kickoff from Charlotte is the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, home of the post-game mayonnaise bath for the winning coach, which features the Big Ten’s 8th place Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-5/45) and the ACC’s 8th place Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6/56). The Gophers lost to the ACC’s North Carolina (6-7) early in the season but defeated 10-3 Illinois for win number 6 in November. Even though they were 2-5 against BE teams, they were stingy and ended with the 16th best defense. Virginia Tech lost to Vandy (6-7), then won 2, lost 2, won 3, lost 3, and closed with a win against rival Virginia. 3-6 against BE teams and facing 4 10+win teams, they should have been 3-9 according the GCR prediction model. Keep in mind that model assumes all games are today, so VT performed at 3 games above expectation (wins against Marshall, Boston College, and Georgia Tech), which is huge (most teams are within 1 game of expectation). They have a better than average defense ranked 38th so points may be hard to come by in this game. Vegas has Minnesota-9.5 and the GCR thinks the Gophers will win 56% but the Hokies will cover. This game will also be on ESPN.
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That’s it for today, the last day of multiple college football games for the season. Thank you for reading and sharing with others. Tune in early tomorrow for the Bahamas Bowl preview (it has an 11:00am kickoff). Here is the summary for today.
| Time | Bowl (Location) | Team | Team | Vegas | GCR Win | GCR Cover |
| 4:00 | SERVPRO First Responder (Dallas) | North Texas (6-6/101) | Texas St (7-5/90) | TXST-14.0 | TXST 65% | TXST |
| 7:30 | Duke’s Mayo (Charlotte) | Minnesota (7-5/45) | Virginia Tech (6-6/56) | MINN-9.5 | MINN 56% | VT |
