Welcome back, oh great and wonderful college football fans, to episode 435 of the GCR. I admit when I’m wrong and I was wrong about the Hawai’i Bowl on the 24th. Not intending to stay up too late, the game that started at 8:00pm (all times Eastern) had 5 OTs before South Florida (7-6/99) finally put San Jose St (7-6/103) to bed. In the game, the Bulls looked like they were going to run away with the game going up 14-0 before SJST scored with 2:09 in the first half. A kickoff return for the TD made it 21-7. Not to be outdone, the Spartans closed the lead to 21-10 with a time-expiring 42-yard field goal. The 3rd quarter belonged to San Jose St as they added 10 more to be down just one, 21-20. South Florida stalled on a long drive before settling for a field goal and a 4-point lead. The Spartans then took the lead for the first time with 11:14 to go, 27-24. That led to a time-expiring kick for SFLA to force OT. Each team traded TDs in the 1st and FGs in the second moving to 2-point conversion time knotted at 37. Each were successful in the 3rd but failed in the 4th. 39-39. South Florida pulled it out well after midnight 41-39. The imagery of Honolulu and the mountains during sunset was not a bad addition to the gameplay.
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That drops the GCR to 14-3 (.824) straight up and 10-7 (.588) against the spread. It also moved the bowl standings around a bit. Here’s the latest:
| Conf | Total Games | Wins | Losses | Points Scored | Points Allowed | GCR Rating | GCR Rank |
| IND | 3 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 17 | 0.656 | 1 |
| AAC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 135 | 123 | 0.519 | 2 |
| MAC | 7 | 2 | 1 | 81 | 77 | 0.469 | 3 |
| Big Ten | 14 | 2 | 1 | 97 | 54 | 0.462 | 4 |
| SEC | 14 | 2 | 1 | 88 | 74 | 0.450 | 5 |
| SUN | 8 | 2 | 2 | 98 | 115 | 0.425 | 6 |
| USA | 4 | 1 | 2 | 75 | 83 | 0.348 | 7 |
| MWC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 82 | 82 | 0.319 | 8 |
| ACC | 13 | 0 | 3 | 47 | 100 | 0.135 | 9 |
| B12 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 42 | 0.119 | 10 |
| P12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 11 |
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Today, we have 3 games starting at 2:00 in Detroit with the GameAbove Sports Bowl. The game features the ACC’s 10th place Pittsburgh Panthers (7-5/50) and the MAC’s 6th place Toledo Rockets (7-5/93). The Panthers started the season 6-0 but their competition during that time did not win many of their games (27-47/.365). In the second half while facing much more challenging competition (50-26/.658), PITT was just 1-5. Overall, they were 3-5 against bowl-eligible (BE) teams (with all 3 wins coming against 6-6 teams). Toledo also started quickly at 3-0 but 2 of those wins were against 10-loss teams (granted one of them was SEC’s Mississippi St). The Rockets had a bad loss to Akron (4-8) at the end of the season. Only 2-4 against BE teams, their work is cut out for them. Vegas likes the Panthers-7.0 and the GCR agrees that PITT will win 53%, but Toledo should see this as a play-up game while the Panthers are finishing a decidedly disappointed season after that quick start: the Rockets will cover.
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At 5:30 out of Phoenix, the Rate Bowl, which used to be the Guaranteed Rate, the Copper, the Insight.com, the Buffalo Wild Wings, and the Cactus Bowls, features two Core 4 teams for the first time this bowl season (not including the playoffs). The Big Ten’s 9th place Rutger Scarlet Knights (7-5/71) will take on the Big 12’s 8th place Kansas St Wildcats (8-4/28). In the theme for the day, Rutgers got off to a hot 4-0 start (teams were 20-28/.417) and then lost their next 4 (teams were 22-24/.478). The Knights only played one team that had more than 7 wins (a loss to 9-3 Illinois). Four of the six teams BE teams they played were 6-6, and they just managed a 3-3 record. The Wildcats started 3-0 and 7-1 with a loss to BYU the only blemish in the first 2/3 of the season. Finishing 1-3 led to a pedestrian 3-3 vs BE teams. To be fair, they did beat Tulane (9-5) but lost to Houston (4-8). Vegas likes KSST-7.0 and the GCR agrees 57% and to cover.
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Our nightcap will come back eastward to Mobile, Alabama at 8:00 for the 68 Ventures Bowl. The Sun Belt West’s 3rd place Arkansas St Red Wolves (7-5/98) take on the MAC’s 4th place Bowling Green Falcons (7-5/92) in what may be the most competitive game today. The Red Wolves didn’t start as strongly as they wanted (3-3 with 2 Core 4 opponents) but finished 5-1. Just 1-4 vs BE teams and a bad loss to 5-7 Old Dominion in the last week means this team has something to prove as they were a preseason contender for the Sun Belt championship game. Bowling Green had a ho-hum season from a GCR perspective. They beat the teams they were supposed to beat and lost to the ones they were supposed to. They did have a 5-game winning streak in the second half of the season but were just 2-4 against BE teams. Vegas likes Bowling Green-8.5 and, while the GCR thinks they will win the bowl game 52%, Arkansas St should cover.
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That’s it for today. Thank you for reading and sharing with others, G.
| Time | Bowl (Location) | Team | Team | Vegas | GCR Win | GCR Cover |
| 2:00 | GameAbove Sports (Detroit) | Pittsburgh (7-5/50) | Toledo (7-5/93) | PITT-7.0 | PITT 53% | TOL |
| 5:30 | Rate (Phoenix) | Rutgers (7-5/71) | Kansas St (8-4/28) | KSST-7.0 | KSST 57% | KSST |
| 8:00 | 68 Ventures (Mobile, AL) | Arkansas St (7-5/98) | Bowling Green (7-5/92) | BG-8.5 | BG 52% | ARST |
