G’s Expectation or The CFP Final Game

Welcome back to the final game of the college football season. It’s bittersweet, but it’s been a fantastic journey over the last 4 and 1/2 months. Yesterday, the South Dakota St Jackrabbits became back-to-back FCS champions by stopping the Montana Grizzlies 23-3. Congratulations Jackrabbits on being one of just two undefeated teams in 2023-24.

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The other one will be decided tonight at 7:30 Eastern when the Washington Huskies (14-0/2) kickoff against the Michigan Wolverines (14-0/1). As a reminder, OER and DER are Offensive and Defensive Efficiency Ratings that compare all 261 Division I teams. Here’s the tale of the tape:

TeamOER/PPGDER/PPGOpp’s Record – RankVs GCR Top 25Vs Bowl Teams1-Score GamesBest Win
WASH143 (16th)/37.6126 (54th)/24.1103-78 (.569)/32nd4-0 (+19 points)9-0 (1.000)8-0 (1.000)Texas
(12-2/6)
MICH162 (3rd)/36.0243 (3rd)/10.298-82 (.544)/37th4-0 (+48 points)9-0 (1.000)3-0 (1.000)Alabama (12-2/5)

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Let’s look at a game-by-game view. Some symbols and their meaning. @ indicates an away game and (N) indicates a neutral site game. * indicates a team that played a bowl game, # indicates a conference championship game, and % indicates a playoff game. Neither team played an FCS game, but ^ indicates a game against a Group of 5 opponent.

Washington HuskiesMichigan Wolverines
Boise St^* (8-6/70): 56-19East Carolina^ (2-10/108): 30-3
Tulsa^ (4-8/108): 43-10UNLV^* (9-5/84): 35-7
@Michigan St (4-8/31): 41-7Bowling Green^* (7-6/76): 31-6
California* (6-7/49): 59-32Rutgers* (7-6/36): 31-7
@Arizona* (10-3/17): 31-24@Nebraska (5-7/86): 45-7
Oregon* (12-2/7): 36-33@Minnesota* (6-7/57): 52-10
Arizona St (3-9/47): 15-7Indiana (3-9/69): 52-7
@Stanford (3-9/51): 42-33@Michigan St (4-8/31): 49-0
@Southern Cal* (8-5/26): 52-42Purdue (4-8/46): 41-13
Utah* (8-5/37): 35-28@Penn St* (10-3/10): 24-15
@Oregon St* (8-5/27): 22-20@Maryland* (8-5/40): 31-24
Washington St (5-7/63): 24-21Ohio St* (11-2/8): 30-24
(N) Oregon# (12-2/7): 34-31(N) Iowa* (10-4/21): 26-0
(N) Texas% (12-2/6): 37-31(N) Alabama% (12-2/5): 27-20

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Vegas has Michigan-5.5 and while Washington owns 1-score games this year, the GCR picks Michigan to win and cover.

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That’s it for today. Tune in next time for the final Top 261 for 2023-24. Thank you for reading and sharing with others, G.