Happy Tuesday and day 10 of this year’s bowl season. Yesterday, in a triple (Vegas, GCR to win, and GCR to cover) upset, New Mexico St quickly jumped on top of Bowling Green 14-0 at the half and held on despite a late surge to win the Quick Lane Bowl, 24-19. That makes the Aggies 4-0-1 all time in bowl games. Here’s the latest list of winners/losers:
| Conference | Winners | Losers | Remaining |
| American (7) | Houston | Cincinnati, SMU | Memphis, East Carolina, UCF, Tulane |
| ACC (9) | Louisville, Wake Forest | Duke, UNC, Syracuse, Florida St, NC St, Pittsburgh, Clemson | |
| Big 12 (8) | Baylor | Oklahoma St, Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas St, TCU | |
| Big Ten (9) | Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio St, Illinois, Purdue, Penn St | ||
| C-USA (6) | UAB, W Kentucky, Middle Tennessee | UTSA, Rice, North Texas | — |
| Indies (5) | BYU, New Mexico St | UCONN, Liberty | Notre Dame |
| MAC (6) | E Michigan, Toledo | Miami OH, Bowling Green | Buffalo, Ohio |
| MWC (7) | Fresno St, Boise St, Air Force | San Jose St, San Diego St | Utah St, Wyoming |
| Pac 12 (7) | Oregon St | Washington St | Oregon, Washington, UCLA, Southern Cal, Utah |
| SEC (11) | Florida, Missouri | Arkansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Georgia, Mississippi St, LSU | |
| Sun (7) | Troy, Southern Miss, Marshall | South Alabama, Louisiana | Ga Southern, Coastal Carolina |
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And the detail behind the summary:
| Conference | Record | Exp Rec | vs Power 5 | vs Group 5 | Favorite | Underdog | Vegas ATS | GCR S/U | GCR Cover |
| American (7) | 1-2 (.333) | 4-3 (.571) | 0-1 (.000) | 1-1 (.500) | 1-1 (.500) | 0-1 (.000) | 0-1-1 (.000) | 1-2 (.333) | 0-1 (.000) |
| ACC (9) | 2-0 (1.000) | 5-4 (.554) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 2-0 (1.000) | 0-0 | 2-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) |
| Big 12 (8) | 0-1 (000) | 2-6 (.250) | 0-0 | 0-1 (000) | 0-1 (000) | 0-0 | 0-1 (000) | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Big Ten (9) | 0-0 | 6-3 (.667) | 0-0 | — | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| C-USA (6) | 3-3 (.500) | 2-4 (.333) | — | 3-3 (.500) | 1-1 (.500) | 2-2 (.500) | 0-2 (.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-1 (.500) |
| Indies (5) | 2-2 (.500) | 1-4 (.200) | 0-0 | 2-2 (.500) | 0-0 | 2-2 (.500) | 0-0 | 0-1 (.000) | 2-1 (.667) |
| MAC (6) | 2-2 (.500) | 2-4 (.333) | — | 2-2 (.500) | 1-1 (.500) | 1-1 (.500) | 0-2 (.000) | 1-1 (.500) | 2-1 (.667) |
| MWC (7) | 3-2 (.600) | 5-2 (.714) | 2-0 (1.000) | 1-2 (.333) | 2-2 (.500) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-3 (.2503) | 3-1 (.750) | 2-1 (.667) |
| Pac 12 (7) | 1-1 (.500) | 5-2 (.714) | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-1 (000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-1 (000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) |
| SEC (11) | 0-2 (000) | 5-6 (.455) | 0-2 (000) | — | 0-0 | 0-2 (000) | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Sun (7) | 3-2 (.600) | 4-3 (.571) | — | 3-2 (.600) | 2-1 (.667) | 1-1 (.500) | 2-1 (.667) | 3-1 (.750) | 1-1-1 (.500) |
| Total | 17 | 41-41 | 3-4 (.429) | 14-13 (.519) | 10-7 (.588) | 7-10 (.412) | 6-10-1 (.375) | 11-6 (.647) | 10-6-1 (.625) |
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Today begins a 6-day-out-of-7 run of multiple bowl games with 4 ranging from a noon (all times Eastern) slot all the way through a 10:15 kickoff. Let’s look at each one. First, the noon game, is the Camellia Bowl out of Montgomery, Alabama, features Ga Southern (6-6/105) of the Sun Belt and Buffalo (6-6/97) of the MAC. Ga Southern started out the season 2-0 including a win at Nebraska before losing 3 of the next 4 (including a loss to Georgia St), bouncing back with a couple of wins before losing the next 3. That set up a game against App St with the winner going to a bowl game, which the Eagles finally won in the second OT. Buffalo started 0-3 including a loss to a very good FCS Holy Cross team before rattling off 5 straight wins, then dropped 3 more before beating Akron in a makeup game (snowed out in the first Buffalo blizzard) during championship week to clinch a bowl berth. When the Eagles have the ball, they bring an OER of 134 (26th out of 261). That means they score 13.4 points for every 10 points their opponents normally allow. Pretty impressive and a top 10% offense. They will be met with a Buffalo DER of 98 (144th) which means they give up 10 points for every 9.8 their opponents normally score. When the Bulls are on offense, they bring an OER of 105 (111th) vs a Ga Southern DER of just 85 (203rd). Neither of these teams has been consistent this season so anything can happen, but I expect a high-scoring affair. Vegas likes GASO -4.5, but the GCR calculates Buffalo to win 55.2% and to cover.
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At 3:15, the First Responder Bowl played in Dallas brings us a fun matchup between Memphis (6-6/104) of the American and Utah St (6-6/99) of the Mountain West. Both of these teams beat who they should have beaten (in retrospect knowing what we know now) and lost to who they should have except for Utah St’s loss to the very good FCS team Weber St. When the Tigers are on the attack, an OER of 120 (61st) will face a not very good Utah St DER of 83 (215th). When the Aggies are under center, an OER of 97 (147th) will take on a Memphis DER of 112 (85th). Vegas has Memphis -7.0 and the GCR agrees 55.5%, but look for Utah St to do just enough to cover.
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Our dinner game, at 6:45, is the Birmingham Bowl which usually houses an SEC team, but none were available, so we get a matchup of teams that are just 3 1/2 hours apart when Coastal Carolina (9-3/47) of the Sun Belt, in that conference’s last bowl game this season, and East Carolina (7-5/81) of the American. Coastal won 9 of their first 10 before dropping the last two including the Sun Belt championship versus Troy. The Pirates 5 losses were all understandable except for an upset to Navy. I like this game from an entertainment value, and I think it will be more competitive than Vegas thinks. When the Chanticleers have the ball, an OER of 113 (82nd) takes on an East Carolina DER of 108 (99th), so pretty much offsets. When the Pirates are in charge, they have an OER of 115 (77th) and will face a Coastal DER of 95 (161st). Vegas likes East Carolina -7.5 while the GCR is calling for an upset, CCAR 63.7% and to cover.
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Our final game tonight, with a 10:15 kickoff, is the Guaranteed Rate Bowl out of Phoenix. The game features the Big Ten’s first participation in this year’s bowl season when Wisconsin (6-6/68) takes on Oklahoma St (7-5/50) of the Big 12. Both of these schools expected better seasons and are limping into the bowl game. When the Badgers are driving, they bring a top 50 OER of 123 (49th) vs an Oklahoma St DER of 104 (117th). On the flip side, the Cowboys will try to wrangle some points with an OER of 114 (80th) against a Wisconsin DER of 123 (61st). Vegas likes those numbers and has WISC -3.5, but the GCR is picking the Cowboys 59.4% and to cover.
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The summary of the four games is below. I hope you have a great day of football and check back tomorrow for the next 4. As always, thank you for reading and sharing with others, G
| Time | Away | Conf Rec | Home | Conf Rec | Vegas | GCR | To Cover |
| December 27, 2022 | Camellia Bowl | Montgomery, AL | |||||
| 12:00 | Ga Southern (6-6/105) | SUN (3-5) | Buffalo (6-6/97) | MAC (5-3) | GASO -4.5 | BUFF 55.2% | BUFF |
| First Responder Bowl | Dallas | ||||||
| 3:15 | Memphis (6-6/104) | AAC (3-5) | Utah St (6-6/99) | MWC (5-3) | MEM -7.0 | MEM 55.5% | UTST |
| Birmingham Bowl | Birmingham | ||||||
| 6:45 | Coastal Carolina (9-3/47) | SUN (6-3) | East Carolina (7-5/81) | AAC (4-4) | ECAR -7.5 | CCAR 63.7% | CCAR |
| Guaranteed Rate Bowl | Phoenix | ||||||
| 10:15 | Wisconsin (6-6/68) | B1G (4-5) | Oklahoma St (7-5/50) | B12 (4-5) | WISC -3.5 | OKST 59.4% | OKST |
