G’s Expectation or The Games of Week 10

Welcome back, oh great and wonderful football fans (including my wonderful daughter who is becoming quite the football aficionado). It’s Tuesday and that means more games on the docket to start the week. New Mexico St (2-5/121) is playing at FIU (2-6/129) as I’m typing with a 0-0 game with 5:35 to go in the first. At 7:30 (all times Eastern) we have a Sun Belt tilt when Texas St (4-3/89) is hosting Louisiana (6-1/31) followed by another Conference USA game with LA Tech (3-4/147) invading Sam Houston (6-2/59) at 8:00.

…..

I mentioned last week was an odd duck that didn’t have any major upsets (although Houston over Utah and Kennesaw St over Liberty were pretty big), but a lot of minor upsets and closer than should be games. The prediction model took a little hit with a straight up (just picking the winner) for the FBS of a sad 34-22 (.607), a full 9 games under my goal. The FCS winners were a little better at 37-19 (.661) for a combined 71-44 (.634). The year to date: FBS 211-122 (.634), FCS 198-105 (.653), combined 409-227 (.643). Against the spread, picking the winner plus or minus the Vegas point spread, was a pathetic 22-34 (.393). This was my first ever week below .400. For the year I’m only 136-131 (.509).

…..

Still no score in the NMST/FIU game which just started the 2nd quarter. LAU/TXST has kicked off with no score nearly 2 minutes into the game.

…..

There are 9 games pre-Saturday but the biggest one is Wednesday night at 7:00 when Jacksonville St (4-3/100) but 3-0 in Conference USA travels to Liberty (5-1/41) coming off a bad road loss to previously winless Kennesaw St (1-6/151). When the Gamecocks have the ball, they bring an OER (Offensive Efficiency Rating) of 126 (52nd in the country). That means they score 12.6 points for every 10.0 points their opponents normally allow. They will face a Liberty DER (Defensive Efficiency Rating) of 97 (156th) meaning they give up 10.0 points for every 9.7 their opponents normally score. It looks like JAX will be able to score. When the Flames are on offense, an OER of 104 (115th) will face a Jacksonville St DER of 82 (215th). Looks like the Flames will score too. The winner of this game has the inside track. Both teams still have to play W Kentucky (5-2/50), also 3-0 in conference in November. Vegas sees all this offense leading to a close game with Liberty-2.0. The GCR agrees LIB 60% and to cover.

…..

FIU is now leading 7-3 with 13:00 to go in the half. Texas St takes an early 3-0 lead with 11:01 in the 1st.

…..

The early game of choice and the Game of the Week is Ohio St (6-1/10) at Penn St (7-0/3). In recent years, Penn St has come into this game with a lot of promise and left with a lot of heartache. The reputation of losing big games could have an impact on the committee if they lose this game especially if they lose another. Ohio St has the not so familiar position of being behind (4th in the conference) and playing catch up. When the Buckeyes line up, an OER of 166 (4th) will face a PSU DER of 176 (12th). Strength on strength. When the Nittany Lions drive, they bring an OER of 124 (59th) against an Ohio St DER of 230 (2nd). Points will be hard to come by. Is this history repeating itself? Will the home crowd turn the tide? Vegas thinks Ohio St will win -3.5. The GCR sees this as PSU’s year winning 54% of the time and to cover. It should be a close game wire-to-wire and worth a watch. These are 2 elite teams fighting for a bye in the playoffs.

…..

No change in the scores.

…..

The 3:30 game to watch is the World’s Largest Cocktail Party in Jacksonville when Florida (4-3/49) takes on Georgia (6-1/16). Florida started slowly but has been on a bit of a tear. Georgia has moved to 2nd in the SEC following LSU’s loss to Texas A&M. This game has been dominated by Georgia in recent years, but this has been a weird year. Florida’s OER of 134 (37th) has been surprisingly decent and will face an elite Bulldog DER of 181 (8th). When GEO is driving, an OER of 146 (14th) faces a Gator DER of 133 (44th). Vegas sees GEO-16.5 and the GCR does see Georgia winning 58% of the time, but Florida will cover.

…..

FIU still up 7-3 with 56 seconds in the half, Louisiana has taken a 7-6 lead at the end of the opening quarter, and LA Tech/Sam Houston are scoreless with 7:48 in the 1st.

…..

Shifting to the ACC, there are 4 teams left that are undefeated in conference play. Clemson (6-1/17) hosts Louisville (5-3/29), Miami FL (8-0/6) hosts Duke (6-2/27), and SMU (7-1/14) hosts Pittsburgh (7-0/7) which will result in a maximum of 3 after the weekend. The SMU/PITT game kicks off at 8:00. When SMU, whose only loss was to BYU (8-0/4) has the ball, they bring an OER of 148 (13th) to face a Panther DER of 125 (57th). When PITT is driving, an OER of 139 (27th) will face a Mustang DER of 124 (58th). Vegas sees SMU-7.5 and the GCR sees a near toss up with PITT winning 52% of the time and to cover.

…..

No change in scores although LA Tech is in the red zone with 3:38 in the first.

…..

That’s it for today. Happy watching. I hope your team does well unless they are playing my team. Thank you for reading and sharing with others. The full list of games is in the table below. See you Sunday, G.

Away Team
(Record/ GCR Rank)
Conf
(Rec)
Home Team
(Record/
GCR Rank)
Conf
(Rec)
VegasGCR WinGCR Cover
Time  ACC (17 teams)Core 4   
12:00Virginia
Tech
(5-3/36)
ACC (3-1)Syracuse (5-2/30)ACC (2-2)VT-4.0SYR 54%SYR
12:00Duke (6-2/27)ACC (2-2)Miami
FL
(8-0/6)
ACC (4-0)MIAF-21.5MIAF 57%DUKE
12:00Stanford (2-6/76)ACC (1-4)NC
St
(4-4/73)
ACC (1-3)NCST-10.0NCST 73%NCST
3:30North Carolina (4-4/56)ACC (1-3)Florida
St
(1-7/57)
ACC (1-6)NCAR-2.5NCAR 77%NCAR
7:30Louisville (5-3/29)ACC (3-2)Clemson (6-1/17)ACC (5-0)CLEM-10.5CLEM 58%LOU
8:00Pittsburgh (7-0/7)ACC (3-0)SMU (7-1/14)ACC (4-0)SMU-7.5PITT 52%PITT
Idle  Boston College (4-4/71), California (4-4/65), Georgia Tech (5-4/60), Virginia (4-4/75), Wake Forest (4-4/79)    
   Big 12 (16 teams)Core 4   
3:30Texas
Tech
(5-3/43)
B12 (3-2)Iowa
St
(7-0/5)
B12 (4-0)IAST-14.0IAST 62%TXTC
3:30Kansas
St
(7-1/13)
B12 (5-1)Houston (3-5/91)B12 (2-3)KSST-13.5KSST 73%KSST
3:30Arizona (3-5/68)B12 (1-5)UCF (3-5/52)B12 (1-4)UCF-6.5UCF 55%ARIZ
7:00Arizona
St
(5-2/35)
B12 (2-2)Oklahoma
St
(3-5/66)
B12 (0-5)AZST-3.0AZST 65%AZST
8:00TCU (5-3/61)B12 (3-2)Baylor (4-4/45)B12 (2-4)BAY-3.0TCU 52%TCU
OOC  none    
Idle  BYU (8-0/4), Cincinnati (5-3/34), Colorado (6-2/21), Kansas (2-6/83), Utah (4-4/85), West Virginia (4-4/51)    
   Big Ten (18 teams)Core 4   
12:00Minnesota (5-3/46)B10 (3-2)Illinois (6-2/24)B10 (3-2)MINN-3.0ILL 55%ILL
12:00North-western
(3-5/78)
B10 (1-4)Purdue (1-6/70)B10 (0-4)NW-1.0NW 63%NW
12:00Ohio
St
(6-1/10)
B10 (3-1)Penn St (7-0/3)B10 (4-0)OHST-3.5PSU 54%PSU
3:30Oregon (8-0/2)B10 (5-0)Michigan (5-3/39)B10 (3-2)ORE-14.5ORE 58%MICH
3:30UCLA (2-5/47)B10 (1-4)Nebraska (5-3/33)B10 (2-3)NEB-6.5NEB 75%NEB
3:30Indiana (8-0/1)B10 (5-0)Michigan
St
(4-4/58)
B10 (2-3)IND-7.5IND 64%IND
7:30Southern
Cal
(4-4/55)
B10 (2-4)Wash-ington
(4-4/54)
B10 (3-2)SCAL-2.5SCAL 52%SCAL
7:30Wisconsin (5-3/40)B10 (3-2)Iowa (5-3/38)B10 (3-2)IOWA-3.0IOWA 54%IOWA
OOC  none    
Idle  Maryland (4-4/62), Rutgers (4-4/86)    
   SEC (16 teams)Core 4   
12:00Mississippi (6-2/19)SEC (2-2)Arkansas (5-3/44)SEC (3-2)MISS-7.0MISS 51%ARK
12:45Vanderbilt (5-3/53)SEC (2-2)Auburn (3-5/92)SEC (1-4)AUB-7.0VAND 61%VAND
2:30Maine (4-4/189)CAA (2-3)Oklahoma (4-4/63)SEC (1-4)NLOKLA 71%NL
3:30Florida (4-3/49) – NSEC (2-2)Georgia (6-1/16) – NSEC (4-1)GEO-16.5GEO 58%FLA
4:15UMASS (2-6/140)IND (0-0)Mississippi
St
(1-7/67)
SEC (0-5)MSST-18.0MSST 54%UMAS
7:30Texas
A&M
(7-1/15)
SEC (5-0)South Carolina (4-3/48)SEC (2-3)TAM-2.5TAM 55%TAM
7:45Kentucky (3-5/97)SEC (1-5)Tennessee (6-1/12)SEC (3-1)TENN-16.5TENN 76%TENN
OOC  none    
Idle  Alabama (6-2/18), LSU (6-2/22), Missouri (6-2/28), Texas (7-1/8)    
   AAC (14 teams)G5   
THU 7:30Tulane (6-2/32)AAC (4-0)Charlotte (3-5/98)AAC (2-2)TULN-16.5TULN 71%TULN
FRI 7:30South Florida (3-4/103)AAC (1-2)FAU (2-5/137)AAC (0-3)SFLA-3.0SFLA 58%SFLA
12:00Air
Force
(1-6/155)
MWC (0-4)Army (7-0/11)AAC (6-0)ARMY-22.5ARMY 98%ARMY
12:00Memphis (7-1/25)AAC (3-1)UTSA (3-5/132)AAC (1-3)MEM-7.5MEM 72%MEM
2:30Tulsa (3-5/136)AAC (1-3)UAB (1-6/107)AAC (0-4)UAB-3.0TULS 62%TULS
4:00Navy (6-1/26)AAC (4-0)Rice (2-6/124)AAC (1-3)NAVY-10.5NAVY 83%NAVY
OOC  none    
Idle  East Carolina (4-4/108), North Texas (5-3/72), Temple (2-6/119)    
   C-USA (10 teams)G5   
TUE 7:00New
Mexico St
(2-5/121)
USA (1-3)FIU (2-6/129)USA (1-3)FIU-7.5NMST 52%NMST
TUE 8:00LA
Tech
(3-4/147)
USA (2-2)Sam Houston (6-2/59)USA (3-1)SHOU-10.0SHOU 70%SHOU
WED 7:00Jackson-ville
St
(4-3/100)
USA (3-0)Liberty (5-1/41)USA (3-1)LIB-2.0LIB 60%LIB
WED 7:30Kennesaw
St
(1-6/151)
USA (1-2)W Kentucky (5-2/50)USA (3-0)WKY-24.0WKY 90%WKY
3:30Middle Tennessee (2-6/114)USA (1-3)UTEP (1-7/123)USA (1-4)UTEP-3.0MTSU 56%MTSU
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   FBS
Indies (3 teams)
G5 (ND-C4)   
7:00Georgia St (2-5/133)SUN (0-4)UCONN (5-3/82)IND (0-0)UCON-7.5UCON 77%UCON
OOC  UMASS (@Mississippi St-SEC)    
Idle  Notre Dame (7-1/9)    
   MAC (12 teams)G5   
12:00Buffalo (4-4/106)MAC (2-2)Akron (2-6/122)MAC (1-3)BUFF-1.0BUFF 64%BUFF
12:00Toledo (5-3/77)MAC (2-2)E Michigan (5-3/94)MAC (2-2)TOL-8.5TOL 51%EMI
OOC  none    
Idle  Ball St (3-5/111), Bowling Green (4-4/95), C Michigan (3-5/128), Kent St (0-8/109), Miami OH (4-4/88), N Illinois (4-4/101), Ohio (5-3/99), W Michigan (5-3/96)    
   Mountain West (12 teams)G5   
FRI 8:00San Diego St (3-4/134)MWC (2-0)Boise
St
(6-1/20)
MWC (3-0)BOST-23.5BOST 73%SDST
4:00Wyoming (1-7/126)MWC (1-3)New Mexico (3-5/143)MWC (2-2)NMEX-7.5NMEX 73%NMEX
7:00Hawaii (3-5/127)MWC (1-2)Fresno
St
(5-3/69)
MWC (3-1)FRST-14.0FRST 72%FRST
8:00Colorado
St
(5-3/80)
MWC (3-0)Nevada (3-6/120)MWC (0-3)COST-1.5COST 67%COST
OOC  Air Force (@Army-AAC)    
Idle  San Jose St (5-3/84), UNLV (6-2/42), Utah St (2-6/144)    
   Pac-12 (2 teams)G5   
OOC  none    
Idle  Oregon St (4-4/104), Washington St (7-1/23)    
   Sun Belt (14 teams)G5   
TUE 7:30Louisiana (6-1/31)SUN (3-0)Texas
St
(4-3/89)
SUN (2-1)TXST-4.0LAU 55%LAU
2:30Old
Dominion (4-4/105)
SUN (3-1)App
St
(3-4/110)
SUN (1-3)OD-2.5OD 53%OD
3:30ULM (5-2/64)SUN (3-1)Marshall (4-3/93)SUN (2-1)MARS-10.5ULM 55%ULM
4:00Coastal Carolina (4-3/90)SUN (1-2)Troy (1-7/118)SUN (0-4)CCAR-4.5CCAR 82%CCAR
7:30Ga Southern (5-3/74)SUN (3-1)South Alabama (4-4/102)SUN (3-1)SALA-6.5GASO 53%GAST
OOC  Georgia St (@UCONN-IND)    
Idle  Arkansas St (5-3/81), James Madison (6-2/37), Southern Miss (1-7/125)    
   Big Sky (12 teams)FCS   
4:00Weber
St
(3-5/240)
SKY (2-2)N Arizona (4-4/201)SKY (2-2)NLNAZ 61%NL
4:00Montana
St
(8-0/87)
SKY (4-0)E Wash-ington (2-6/251)SKY (1-3)NLMTST 89%NL
4:00N Colorado (1-7/227)SKY (1-3)UC
Davis
(7-1/138)
SKY (4-0)NLUCD 80%NL
5:00Montana (6-2/152)SKY (3-1)Cal
Poly
(2-5/248)
SKY (1-3)NLMONT 73%NL
9:00Portland
St
(1-6/197)
SKY (1-3)Sacra-mento
St (3-5/228)
SKY (1-3)NLSAC 57%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Idaho (6-3/158), Idaho St (4-5/208)    
   Big South/Ohio Valley (9 teams)FCS   
2:00Gardner
Webb
(2-6/244)
BSOV (1-3)Charleston (1-7/254)BSOV (0-5)NLCHSO 55%NL
2:30Lindenwood (4-5/209)BSOV (3-2)Tennessee
Tech
(3-5/214)
BSOV (3-2)NLLIN 52%NL
3:00W Illinois (3-5/199)BSOV (2-2)E Illinois (1-7/220)BSOV (0-4)NLWILL 51%NL
6:00Tennessee Martin (5-3/164)BSOV (3-1)Tennessee
St
(6-2/156)
BSOV (3-1)NLTNST 56%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  SEMO (8-1/112)    
   Colonial (16 teams)FCS   
1:00William & Mary (5-3/170)CAA (2-2)North
Carolina A&T
(1-7/237)
CAA (0-4)NLW&M 66%NL
1:00Villanova (6-2/161)CAA (3-1)Hampton (5-3/173)CAA (2-2)NLVILL 51%NL
1:00Mon-mouth
(4-4/193)
CAA (2-2)Rhode
Island
(7-1/131)
CAA (4-0)NLRISL 67%NL
1:00New
Hampshire (4-4/188)
CAA (2-2)Albany (3-5/232)CAA (1-3)NLNH 57%NL
1:00Stony
Brook
(6-2/153)
CAA (3-1)Bryant (2-6/257)CAA (0-5)NLSB 76%NL
2:00Campbell (3-5/223)CAA (1-3)Elon (2-6/238)CAA (1-3)NLCAMP 55%NL
2:00Towson (4-4/183)CAA (2-2)Richmond (6-2/148)CAA (4-0)NLRICH 66%NL
OOC  Maine
(@Oklahoma-SEC)
    
Idle  Delaware (7-1/117)    
   FCS
Indies (2 teams)
FCS   
12:00Merrimack (4-4/190)FCS (0-0)Robert Morris (5-3/180)NEC (4-0)NLRM 57%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Sacred Heart (4-5/222)    
   Ivy League (8 teams)FCS   
FRI 7:00Yale (4-2/171)IVY (1-2)Columbia (4-2/166)IVY (2-1)NLCOLA 55%NL
12:00Penn (2-4/241)IVY (0-3)Brown (3-3/200)IVY (2-1)NLBRO 63%NL
1:00Cornell (2-4/252)IVY (1-2)Princeton (2-4/235)IVY (1-2)NLPRIN 54%NL
1:30Harvard (5-1/139)IVY (2-1)Dart-mouth
(6-0/113)
IVY (3-0)NLDART 59%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   MEAC (6 teams)FCS   
THU 7:30NC Central (6-2/154)MEAC (2-0)South
Carolina St
(5-2/159)
MEAC (1-0)NLNCC 52%NL
1:00Delaware
St
(1-7/256)
MEAC (0-1)Howard (3-5/233)MEAC (0-1)NLHOW 57%NL
1:00Norfolk
St
(3-6/249)
MEAC (1-1)Morgan
St
(3-5/219)
MEAC (0-1)NLMORG 58%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Missouri Valley (11 teams)FCS   
1:00North Dakota (5-3/165)MVC (2-2)Indiana
St
(3-5/245)
MVC (2-2)NLNDAK 64%NL
3:00Young-stown
St
(3-6/206)
MVC (2-3)Illinois
St
(5-3/174)
MVC (2-2)NLILST 73%NL
3:00S Illinois (2-6/198)MVC (0-4)Missouri
St
(6-2/162)
MVC (4-0)NLMOST 80%NL
3:00Murray
St
(1-7/212)
MVC (0-5)South
Dakota St
(6-2/141)
MVC (3-1)NLSDKS 81%NL
3:30N Iowa (2-6/234)MVC (0-4)North
Dakota St
(8-1/116)
MVC (5-0)NLNDST 86%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  South Dakota (6-2/135)    
   Northeast (8 teams)FCS   
12:00Mercy-hurst
(2-6/263)
NEC (0-2)Duquesne (5-2/160)NEC (3-0)NLDUQ 82%NL
12:00Wagner (4-5/216)NEC (2-1)C Conn-ecticut (3-5/242)NEC (2-1)NLWAG 51%NL
1:00Stonehill (1-6/253)NEC (0-3)St Francis (2-6/247)NEC (0-4)NLSTON 52%NL
OOC  Robert Morris (Merrimack-FCS)    
Idle  Long Island (2-7/250)    
   Patriot League (7 teams)FCS   
12:30Lehigh (4-3/179)PAT (1-1)George-town
(5-3/176)
PAT (2-1)NLGTOW 55%NL
1:00Colgate (2-6/260)PAT (1-1)Fordham (0-8/231)PAT (0-3)NLCOLG 65%NL
1:00Lafayette (4-4/194)PAT (1-2)Bucknell (3-5/239)PAT (1-1)NLLAF 57%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Holy Cross (4-5/203)    
   Pioneer League (11 teams)FCS   
1:00Dayton (5-2/157)PFL (3-1)Presby-terian
(3-6/259)
PFL (1-4)NLDAY 74%NL
1:00Stetson (2-5/261)PFL (0-3)Butler (6-2/142)PFL (2-2)NLBUT 83%NL
1:00St Thomas (5-3/196)PFL (4-0)Morehead
St
(5-3/178)
PFL (3-1)NLMHST 56%NL
2:00Marist (0-8/226)PFL (0-5)Drake (5-1/149)PFL (4-0)NLDRAK 71%NL
4:00Davidson (5-3/175)PFL (3-2)San Diego (4-3/182)PFL (2-2)NLpickNL
OOC  none    
Idle  Valparaiso (3-5/255)    
   SoCon (9 teams)FCS   
1:30Furman (2-5/236)SoCon (1-2)VMI (0-8/217)SoCon (0-4)NLVMI 61%NL
2:30Chatt-anooga
(5-3/167)
SoCon (4-1)W Carolina (4-4/186)SoCon (3-1)NLCHAT 54%NL
3:00E Tennessee St (5-3/168)SoCon (3-1)Mercer (7-1/115)SoCon (4-1)NLMERC 65%NL
3:00Wofford (3-5/243)SoCon (1-4)Samford (3-4/207)SoCon (2-2)NLSAM 61%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Citadel (4-5/218)    
   Southland (9 teams)FCS   
3:00Houston Christian (3-5/205)SLAN (1-2)Incarnate
Word
(6-2/150)
SLAN (3-0)NLIW 73%NL
4:00South-eastern
(4-5/204)
SLAN (3-1)Lamar (5-3/172)SLAN (2-1)NLLAM 61%NL
4:00Steph F Austin (5-3/163)SLAN (3-2)Nicholls (4-4/185)SLAN (2-1)NLSFA 55%NL
8:00Com-merce
(1-7/258)
SLAN (1-2)McNeese (4-5/191)SLAN (1-3)NLMCN 66%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Northwestern St (0-9/215)    
   SWAC (12 teams)FCS   
3:00Southern (4-4/202)SWAC (3-2)Alabama
A&M
(3-4/213)
SWAC (1-2)NLSOUT 51%NL
3:00Prairie
View
(3-5/229)
SWAC (1-3)Mississippi
Valley
(0-8/230)
SWAC (0-4)NLMSVL 56%NL
3:00Ark Pine Bluff (3-5/221)SWAC (2-2)Jackson
St
(6-2/146)
SWAC (5-1)NLJACK 74%NL
3:00Grambling
St
(4-4/187)
SWAC (2-3)Bethune (1-7/246)SWAC (1-3)NLGRAM 60%NL
4:00Texas Southern (3-4/210)SWAC (2-2)Florida
A&M
(4-3/177)
SWAC (2-1)NLFLAM 59%NL
5:00Alcorn
St
(4-4/195) – N
SWAC (3-1)Alabama
St
(4-3/181) – N
SWAC (3-1)NLALST 53%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   UAC (9 teams)FCS   
2:00Lincoln CA (NA)NAWest Georgia (2-6/262)UAC (0-6)NLNLNL
4:00C Arkansas (6-2/145)UAC (3-1)Utah
Tech
(0-9/211)
UAC (0-5)NLCARK 66%NL
4:00S
Utah
(4-4/184)
UAC (3-1)Abilene Christian (5-3/169)UAC (4-1)NLABCH 57%NL
5:00Austin
Peay
(3-5/225)
UAC (2-3)N Alabama (3-6/224)UAC (3-2)NLAP 54%NL
7:00E Kentucky (4-4/192)UAC (2-2)Tarleton (7-1/130)UAC (4-0)NLTARL 69%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *