G’s Expectation or The Games to Watch in Week 5

Welcome back, college football fans, and welcome to this week’s addition of who wins and who whines. First, some news, the Pac (1)2 poached Utah St from the Mountain West to move their total for next season to 7. The MWC has dipped to 7 next year which puts both under the 8 required. This announcement came after four teams in the American conference said no. Interestingly, all known future Pac-7 (as of now) schools are “State” teams: Washington St, Oregon St, Boise St, Fresno St, Colorado St, San Diego St, and Utah St. They’ve offered UNLV but no answer yet. Assuming the 8th comes from the MWC, that conference will need to add at least 2 members. Logical choices could be UTEP or Tarleton (FCS) or even Montana and Montana St (both FCS). The difficulty in PAC expansion is the number of potential schools in the region (if you live in the eastern half of the US and have never been west, it’s beautiful with a LOT of space). They almost have to poach the MWC because there is no one else. I’ll keep monitoring this.

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But this post is about the games which start tonight when Army (3-0/22) invades Temple (1-3/109) with a 7:30 (all times Eastern) kickoff. Spoiler alert: Army should win handily. The best pre-Saturday game is Friday at 8:00 when Rutgers (3-0/19) hosts Washington (3-1/29). The 2830-mile trip for the Huskies could play an impact. When they have the ball, WASH brings an Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) of 133 (51st in the country) which means they score 13.3 points for every 10.0 points their opponents normally allow. They will be up against a Scarlet Knight DER (Defensive) of 145 (48th) which means they give up 10.0 points for every 14.5 their opponents normally score. On the flip side RUTG has an OER of 124 (78th) vs a Huskie DER of 284 (7th). Vegas likes Rutgers -2.5 and the GCR thinks that’s a pretty good spread with RUTG winning 55% of the time.

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The early game (12:00) to watch is a Big 12 matchup with BYU (4-0/8) heading to Baylor (2-2/52). The Bears, with their 2 losses, have played the 3rd most difficult schedule so far which could be driving the misses. When they have the ball, they bring an OER of 150 (25th), which is pretty impressive given their competition, and will face a Cougar DER of 213 (17th). When BYU is in control of the rock, an OER of 120 (86th) will face a Baylor DER of 139 (50th). I can’t decide if this is going to be a typical Big 12 shoot out or a defensive battle. Vegas has Baylor -3.5, but the GCR likes BYU to remain undefeated on the road, 60%.

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The afternoon game (3:30) worth spending some time on is this week’s ACC game, Louisville (3-0/14) hosting Notre Dame (3-1/27). This one will either bring the Irish back into the post-season discussion or all but eliminate them. The home loss to N Illinois (2-1/78) who then lost at home to Buffalo (3-1/53) gives them just the 78th most difficult schedule to date. It gets harder and this feels like a must win. On offense the Irish have an OER of 141 (37th) vs a Cardinal DER of 261 (9th). When LOU has the ball, an OER of 148 (27th) faces a strong DER of 244 (12th). Vegas likes ND-6.5, but the GCR would go with Louisville if not to cover, to win 51%. Louisville, with the win, establishes themselves as an ACC contender.

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The evening game with a 7:30 kickoff and the GCR Game of the Week, is Georgia (3-0/7) at Alabama (3-0/3). Both teams had bye weeks coming into this game and know the importance. The Bulldogs still have Texas (4-0/1), Mississippi (4-0/4), and Tennessee (4-0/2) on the schedule while the Crimson Elephant Tide has Tennessee, Missouri (4-0/9), and Oklahoma (3-1/37) left. The loser of this game could be out of the SEC championship. Georgia has not fared well losing 8 of the last 9 in a rivalry that goes back to 1895. When the Tide is in control, they bring an OER of 186 (1st in the country) and will face a DER of 458 (1st in the country). I honestly don’t think I’ve ever seen a game like this before. When the Dawgs are on offense, their OER is a much more normal 129 (62nd) vs an elite Alabama DER of 308 (5th). Vegas likes the Bulldogs-2.0, but the GCR has Bama taking 9 out of 10 at 54%. It will be a close one. I expect within a touchdown.

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There are other great games out there (at 10:00pm Washington St and Boise St play a precursor of next year’s Pac-8), both of the most dominant FCS conferences (Big Sky and Missouri Valley) start their conference games in earnest. My nephew’s alma mater, Frostburg St (3-0) will play (and probably beat) the newest Division I team, Mercyhurst (1-3/251). Check out all 110 games below. Thank you for reading and sharing with others, G

Away Team (Record/ GCR Rank)Conf (Rec)Home Team
(Record/ GCR Rank)
Conf
(Rec)
VegasGCR Win
   ACC (17 teams)Core 4  
FRI 7:30Virginia Tech (2-2/87)ACC (0-0)Miami FL (4-0/5)ACC (0-0)MIAF-19.5MIAF 68%
12:00W Kentucky (3-1/59)USA (1-0)Boston College (3-1/24)ACC (1-0)BC-13.5BC 60%
12:00N Illinois (2-1/71)MAC (0-1)NC St (2-2/89)ACC (0-1)NCST-6.5NILL 52%
12:00Holy Cross (1-3/257)PAT (0-0)Syracuse (2-1/54)ACC (1-1)NLSYR 93%
3:30Louisiana (2-1/95)SUN (0-0)Wake Forest (1-2/93)ACC (0-1)WF-3.5LAU 59%
3:30Louisville (3-0/14)ACC (1-0)Notre Dame (3-1/27)IND (0-0)ND-6.5LOU 51%
4:00North Carolina (3-1/50)ACC (0-0)Duke (4-0/17)ACC (0-0)DUKE-3.0DUKE 60%
7:00Stanford (2-1/62)ACC (1-0)Clemson (2-1/51)ACC (1-0)CLEM-21.5CLEM 54%
8:00Florida St (1-3/83)ACC (1-2)SMU (3-1/38)ACC (0-0)SMU-6.5SMU 75%
Idle  California (3-1/49), Georgia Tech (3-2/60), Pittsburgh (4-0/18), Virginia (3-1/47)   
   Big 12 (16 teams)Core 4  
12:00Oklahoma St (3-1/26)B12 (0-1)Kansas St (3-1/34)B12 (1-1)KSST-4.5OKST 52%
12:00BYU (4-0/8)B12 (1-0)Baylor (2-2/52)B12 (0-2)BAY-3.5BYU 60%
3:30Colorado (3-1/44)B12 (1-0)UCF (3-0/15)B12 (1-0)UCF-14.5UCF 59%
3:30TCU (2-2/75)B12 (0-1)Kansas (1-3/85)B12 (0-1)KAN-1.5KAN 59%
7:00Iowa St (3-0/12)B12 (0-0)Houston (1-3/90)B12 (0-1)IAST-14.0IAST 74%
8:00Cincinnati (3-1/42)B12 (1-0)Texas Tech (3-1/36)B12 (1-0)TXTC-2.5CIN 51%
10:15Arizona (2-1/70)B12 (0-1)Utah (4-0/11)B12 (2-0)UTAH-11.0UTAH 64%
OOC  none   
Idle  Arizona St (3-1/46), West Virginia (2-2/67)   
   Big Ten (18 teams)Core 4  
FRI 8:00Washington (3-1/29)B10 (1-0)Rutgers (3-0/19)B10 (0-0)RUTG-2.5RUTG 55%
12:00Maryland (3-1/32)B10 (0-1)Indiana (4-0/6)B10 (1-0)IND-7.0IND 59%
12:00Nebraska (3-1/31)B10 (0-1)Purdue (1-2/100)B10 (0-0)NEB-10.0NEB 66%
12:00Minnesota (2-2/72)B10 (0-1)Michigan (3-1/33)B10 (1-0)MICH-9.5MICH 59%
3:30Wisconsin (2-1/76)B10 (0-0)Southern Cal (2-1/43)B10 (0-1)SCAL-15.5SCAL 57%
7:30Ohio St (3-0/10)B10 (0-0)Michigan St (3-1/44)B10 (1-0)OHST-24.0OHST 54%
7:30Illinois (4-0/13)B10 (1-0)Penn St (3-0/16)B10 (0-0)PSU-19.0ILL 53%
11:00Oregon (3-0/20)B10 (0-0)UCLA (1-2/64)B10 (0-1)ORE-25.5ORE 70%
OOC  none   
Idle  Iowa (3-1/35), Northwestern (2-2/79)   
   SEC (16 teams)Core 4  
12:00Kentucky (2-2/77)SEC (0-2)Mississippi (4-0/4)SEC (0-0)MISS-17.5MISS 67%
3:30Arkansas (3-1/39) – NSEC (1-0)Texas A&M (3-1/45) – NSEC (1-0)TAM-4.0ARK 51%
3:30Oklahoma (3-1/37)SEC (0-1)Auburn (2-2/82)SEC (0-1)OKLA-2.5OKLA 55%
4:15Mississippi St (1-3/106)SEC (0-1)Texas (4-0/1)SEC (0-0)TEX-39.0TEX 82%
7:30Georgia (3-0/7)SEC (1-0)Alabama (3-0/3)SEC (0-0)GEO-2.0ALA 54%
7:45South Alabama (2-2/108)SUN (1-0)LSU (3-1/48)SEC (1-0)LSU-22.0LSU 62%
OOC  none   
Idle  Florida (2-2/78), Missouri (4-0/9), South Carolina (3-1/40), Tennessee (4-0/2), Vanderbilt (2-2/73)   
   AAC (14 teams)G5  
THU 7:30Army (3-0/22)AAC (2-0)Temple (1-3/109)AAC (0-1)ARMY-12.5ARMY 75%
12:00Navy (3-0/30)AAC (2-0)UAB (1-2/124)AAC (0-0)NAVY-3.5NAVY 68%
12:00South Florida (2-2/98)AAC (0-0)Tulane (2-2/91)AAC (0-0)TULN-5.0TULN 54%
4:00UTSA (2-2/101)AAC (0-0)East Carolina (2-2/105)AAC (0-0)ECAR-4.0ECAR 55%
6:00Wagner (2-2/208)NEC (0-1)FAU (1-3/127)AAC (0-1)NLFAU 57%
7:00Charlotte (1-3/97)AAC (0-0)Rice (1-3/136)AAC (0-1)RICE-7.0RICE 55%
7:00Tulsa (2-2/119)AAC (0-0)North Texas (3-1/66)AAC (0-0)NTEX-6.0NTEX 60%
7:30Middle Tennessee (1-3/88)USA (0-1)Memphis (3-1/61)AAC (0-1)MEM-26.0MEM 80%
OOC  none   
Idle  none   
   C-USA (10 teams)G5  
3:00Texas St (2-1/80) – NSUN (0-0)Sam Houston (3-1/56) – NUSA (1-0)TXST-8.0SHOU 53%
3:30Liberty (4-0/28)USA (2-0)App St (2-2/120)SUN (0-1)LIB-3.5LIB 64%
6:00Tennessee Martin (1-3/225)BSOV (0-1)Kennesaw St (0-3/135)USA (0-0)NLKNST 59%
6:00LA Tech (1-2/140)USA (0-0)FIU (1-3/126)USA (0-0)LATC-2.5LATC 53%
8:00New Mexico (0-4/131)MWC (0-1)New Mexico St (1-3/102)USA (0-2)NMEX-9.0NMST 60%
OOC  Middle Tennessee (@Memphis-AAC), W Kentucky (@Boston College-ACC)   
Idle  Jacksonville St (1-3/114), UTEP (0-4/113)   
   FBS Independents (3 teams)G5 (ND-C4)  
12:00Buffalo (3-1/53)MAC (1-0)UCONN (2-2/84)IND (0-0)UCON-6.5BUFF 53%
3:30UMASS (1-3/118)IND (0-0)Miami OH (0-3/112)MAC (0-0)MIAO-17.5UMAS 53%
OOC  Notre Dame (Louisville-ACC)   
Idle  none   
   MAC (12 teams)G5  
1:30Ball St (1-2/104)MAC (0-1)James Madison (3-0/25)SUN (0-0)JMU-21.0JMU 76%
3:30E Michigan (3-1/65)MAC (0-0)Kent St (0-4/81)MAC (0-0)EMI-15.5EMI 79%
3:30W Michigan (1-2/133)MAC (0-0)Marshall (1-2/116)SUN (0-0)MARS-3.0MARS 54%
3:30Akron (1-3/99)MAC (0-0)Ohio (2-2/121)MAC (0-0)OHIO-12.5OHIO 69%
3:30San Diego St (1-2/130)MWC (0-0)C Michigan (2-2/103)MAC (1-0)CMI-3.0CMI 61%
5:00Old Dominion (0-3/134)SUN (0-0)Bowling Green (1-2/110)MAC (0-0)BG-10.0BG 70%
OOC  Buffalo (@UCONN-IND), Miami OH (UMASS-IND), N Illinois (@NC St-ACC)   
Idle  Toledo (3-1/55)   
   Mountain West (12 teams)G5  
3:30Fresno St (3-1/58)MWC (1-0)UNLV (3-0/23)MWC (0-0)UNLV-1.5UNLV 59%
8:00Air Force (1-2/137)MWC (0-1)Wyoming (0-4/94)MWC (0-0)AF-4.0AF 62%
10:00Washington St (4-0/21)P12 (0-0)Boise St (2-1/74)MWC (0-0)BOST-7.5WAST 56%
OOC  New Mexico (@New Mexico St-USA), San Deigo St (@C Michigan-MAC)   
Idle  Colorado St (2-2/107), Hawaii (2-2/117), Nevada (2-3/129), San Jose St (3-1/57), Utah St (1-3/125)   
   Pac-12 (2 teams)G5  
OOC  Washington St (@Boise St-MWC)   
Idle  Oregon St (3-1/68)   
   Sun Belt (14 teams)G5  
3:30Ga Southern (2-2/96)SUN (0-0)Georgia St (2-1/92)SUN (0-0)GAST-3.5GAST 57%
7:00ULM (2-1/69)SUN (0-0)Troy (1-3/122)SUN (0-0)TROY-7.5ULM 65%
OOC  App St (Liberty-USA), James Madison (Ball St-MAC), Louisiana (@Wake Forest-ACC), Marshall (W Michigan-MAC), Old Dominion (@Bowling Green-MAC), South Alabama (@LSU-SEC), Texas St (vs Sam Houston-USA)   
Idle  Arkansas St (2-2/86), Southern Miss (1-3/158)   
   Big Sky (12 teams)FCS  
3:00Cal Poly (1-2/223)SKY (0-0)N Colorado (0-4/248)SKY (0-0)NLCP 51%
4:00Sacramento St (2-2/170)SKY (0-0)N Arizona (2-2/192)SKY (0-0)NLSAC 52%
6:00Montana St (4-0/115)SKY (0-0)Idaho St (2-2/184)SKY (0-0)NLMTST 65%
7:00Portland St (0-3/189)SKY (0-1)Chattanooga (0-3/171)SoCon (0-1)NLPTST 53%
8:00Montana (3-1/147)SKY (0-0)E Washington (1-3/260)SKY (0-0)NLMONT 77%
8:00McNeese (3-2/164)SLAN (0-0)Weber St (2-2/175)SKY (1-0)NLMCN 51%
10:00Idaho (3-1/141)SKY (0-0)UC Davis (3-1/157)SKY (0-0)NLPICK
OOC  none   
Idle  none   
   Big South/Ohio Valley (9 teams)FCS  
3:00Lindenwood (1-3/153)BSOV (0-0)E Illinois (1-3/188)BSOV (0-0)NLEILL 61%
4:00Tennessee Tech (1-2/197)BSOV (1-0)Gardner Webb (1-3/224)BSOV (0-0)NLTNTC 51%
4:00Northwestern St (0-4/235)SLAN (0-0)SEMO (3-1/153)BSOV (1-0)NLSEMO 74%
6:00Charleston (1-2/242)BSOV (0-0)Tennessee St (2-2/206)BSOV (0-1)NLTNST 58%
7:00McKendree (NA)NAW Illinois (0-3/168)BSOV (0-0)NLNL
OOC  Tennessee Martin (@Kennesaw St-USA)   
Idle  none   
   Colonial (16 teams)FCS  
1:00Fordham (0-4/252)PAT (0-0)Monmouth (2-2/195)CAA (1-0)NLMON 64%
2:00Richmond (2-2/179)CAA (0-0)Elon (1-3/214)CAA (0-0)NLRICH 68%
2:00Delaware St (1-3/255)MEAC (0-0)Campbell (1-3/213)CAA (0-2)NLCAMP 55%
3:30Sacred Heart (1-3/240)FCS (0-0)Delaware (3-0/128)CAA (2-0)NLDEL 75%
3:30Maine (2-2/209)CAA (0-1)Albany (1-2/233)CAA (0-0)NLPICK
3:30Morgan St (2-2/185)MEAC (0-0)Stony Brook (3-1/159)CAA (1-0)NLSB 61%
6:00Long Island (0-4/236)NEC (0-0)Villanova (3-1/161)CAA (1-0)NLVILL 71%
6:00Hampton (3-1/154)CAA (0-0)William & Mary (3-1/149)CAA (0-0)NLW&M 54%
6:00North Carolina A&T (1-3/261)CAA (0-1)South Carolina St (1-2/220)MEAC (0-0)NLSCST 63%
OOC  none   
Idle  New Hampshire (3-1/148), Rhode Island (3-1/163), Towson (1-3/207)   
   FCS Independent (2 teams)FCS  
1:00Dartmouth (1-0/138)IVY (0-0)Merrimack (1-3/240)FCS (0-0)NLDART 76%
OOC  Sacred Heart (@Delaware-CAA)   
Idle  none   
   Ivy League (8 teams)FCS  
12:00Harvard (1-0/132)IVY (0-0)Brown (1-0/139)IVY (0-0)NLHARV 51%
12:30Columbia (1-0/146)IVY (0-0)Georgetown (2-2/211)PAT (0-0)NLCOLA 64%
1:00Colgate (1-3/259)PAT (0-0)Penn (0-2/234)IVY (0-0)NLPENN 61%
2:00Yale (1-0/150)IVY (0-0)Cornell (0-1/262)IVY (0-0)NLYALE 68%
3:00Howard (2-2/176)MEAC (0-0)Princeton (0-1/245)IVY (0-0)NLHOW 57%
OOC  Dartmouth (@Merrimack-FCS)   
Idle  none   
   MEAC (6 teams)FCS  
3:00NC Central (2-2/193)MEAC (0-0)Norfolk St (2-3/230)MEAC (0-0)NLNCC 54%
OOC  Delaware St (@Campbell-CAA), Howard (@Princeton-IVY), Morgan St (@Stony Brook-CAA), South Carolina St (North Carolina A&T-CAA)   
Idle  none   
   Missouri Valley (11 teams)FCS  
1:00Houston Christian (1-3/203)SLAN (0-0)Indiana St (1-2/237)MVC (0-0)NLINST 55%
2:00Murray St (1-2/174)MVC (0-0)North Dakota (3-1/143)MVC (0-0)NLNDAK 70%
2:00S Illinois (2-2/169)MVC (0-0)South Dakota (2-1/162)MVC (0-0)NLSDAK 61%
3:00Youngstown St (1-3/190)MVC (0-0)Missouri St (2-2/201)MVC (0-0)NLMOST 67%
3:00North Dakota St (3-1/145)MVC (0-0)Illinois St (3-1/152)MVC (0-0)NLNDST 52%
OOC  none   
Idle  N Iowa (2-2/187), South Dakota St (3-1/142)   
   Northeast (8 teams)FCS  
1:00Frostburg St (NA)NAMercyhurst (1-3/251)NEC (0-1)NLNL
2:00Robert Morris (2-2/226)NEC (2-0)E Kentucky (2-2/182)UAC (1-0)NLEKY 61%
OOC  Long Island (@Villanova-CAA), Wagner (@FAU-AAC)   
Idle  C Connecticut (2-2/191), Duquesne (2-2/173), St Francis (1-3/228), Stonehill (1-2/232)   
   Patriot League (7 teams)FCS  
12:00Bucknell (2-2/202)PAT (0-0)Lehigh (3-1/151)PAT (0-0)NLLEH 65%
OOC  Colgate (@Penn-IVY), Fordham (@Monmouth-CAA), Georgetown (@Columbia-IVY), Holy Cross (@Syracuse-ACC)   
Idle  Lafayette (2-2/181)   
   Pioneer League (11 teams)FCS  
12:00Dayton (2-1/167)PFL (0-0)Marist (0-3/250)PFL (0-0)NLDAY 63%
1:00Lynchburg (NA)NAButler (3-0/123)PFL (0-0)NLNL
1:00San Diego (2-1/166)PFL (0-0)Drake (1-1/210)PFL (0-0)NLSDIE 55%
1:00Valparaiso (2-2/249)PFL (0-0)Morehead St (2-2/205)PFL (0-0)NLMHST 56%
7:00Davidson (2-1/172)PFL (0-0)Presbyterian (2-2/219)PFL (0-0)NLDAV 58%
OOC  none   
Idle  St Thomas (1-3/263), Stetson (2-2/222)   
   SoCon (9 teams)FCS  
1:30Mercer (4-0/111)SoCon (2-0)Wofford (2-1/165)SoCon (0-0)NLMERC 60%
2:00Samford (1-2/229)SoCon (0-0)Furman (1-3/200)SoCon (0-0)NLSAM 56%
2:00E Tennessee St (2-2/186)SoCon (0-0)Citadel (2-2/196)SoCon (0-1)NLETSU 51%
OOC  Chattanooga (Portland St-SKY)   
Idle  VMI (0-4/218), W Carolina (1-3/243)   
   Southland (9 teams)FCS  
7:00Southeastern (1-3/239)SLAN (0-0)Tarleton (3-1/155)UAC (1-0)NLTARL 72%
7:00Lamar (3-1/156)SLAN (0-0)C Arkansas (3-1/144)UAC (1-0)NLCARK 56%
OOC  Houston Christian (@Indiana St-MVC), McNeese (@Weber St-SKY), Northwestern St (@SEMO-BSOV)   
Idle  Commerce (0-4/246), Incarnate Word (2-2/198), Nicholls (1-3/244), Steph F Austin (2-2/180)   
   SWAC (12 teams)FCS  
3:00Alabama St (1-2/256)SWAC (0-0)Bethune (0-4/238)SWAC (0-0)NLBETH 59%
7:00Alcorn St (1-3/231)SWAC (0-0)Mississippi Valley (0-4/247)SWAC (0-0)NLACST 52%
7:00Jackson St (2-2/183)SWAC (1-1)Texas Southern (1-2/227)SWAC (1-0)NLJACK 55%
7:00Prairie View (1-3/241)SWAC (0-2)Grambling St (3-1/160)SWAC (1-0)NLGRAM 75%
OOC  none   
Idle  Alabama A&M (2-2/199), Florida A&M (2-2/177), Ark Pine Bluff (1-3/216), Southern (2-2/203)   
   UAC (9 teams)FCS  
2:00S Utah (1-3/194)UAC (0-0)Austin Peay (1-3/212)UAC (0-1)NLSUT 55%
2:00N Alabama (0-5/217)UAC (0-1)West Georgia (1-2/254)UAC (0-2)NLWGA 54%
9:00Abilene Christian (2-2/178)UAC (1-0)Utah Tech (0-4/215)UAC (0-0)NLABCH 60%
OOC  C Arkansas (Lamar-SLAN), E Kentucky (Robert Morris-NEC), Tarleton (Southeastern-SLAN)   
Idle  none