Welcom.e back, college football fans, to the final post of 2023. Being that NYE is a Sunday and the NFL will be in full swing with playoff spots to be clinched, we get tomorrow off before the big New Year’s Day games.
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Yesterday we had a wide range of games. First, a barnburner of a 4th quarter in the Gator Bowl where Clemson (9-4/21) outscored Kentucky (7-6/41) 28-14 in the final frame to take the win 38-35. 5 lead changes in the 6:45 was chaotic and fun. It was the first of the Tiger mascot wins of the day.
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The Sun Bowl was a complete washout for Oregon St (8-5/28) who scored a single junk TD with less than 3 minutes to go in a 40-8 loss to Notre Dame (10-3/15). The Beavers were held to less than 200 total yards and just didn’t look ready to play against the Irish.
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In our second Tiger mascot victory, Memphis (10-3/60) upset Iowa St (7-6/32) 36-26 in the Liberty Bowl. Some home field advantage helped the Tigers to a 19-0 first quarter lead and they cruised from there.
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The nightcap featured 16 punts and 15 penalties between the two teams as the Missouri Tigers (11-2/14) completed the Tiger sweep by keeping the Ohio St Buckeyes (11-2/7) to 206 yards. The final was 14-3, but Missouri didn’t score until the 4th quarter. They added an insurance TD with 5:12 to go to ice the game.
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Our first game today is the Peach Bowl in Atlanta featuring the Mississippi Rebels (10-2/11) and the Penn St Nittany Lions (10-2/8). The game kicks off at 12:00 (all times Eastern). As a reminder OER stands for Offensive Efficiency Rating and DER stands for Defensive Efficiency Rating. Here is the tale of the tape.
| Team | OER/PPG | DER/PPG | Opp’s Record – Rank | Vs Bowl Teams | Best Win | Worst Loss |
| MISS | 137 (24th)/34.8 | 131 (45th)/22.3 | 88-65 (.570) – 17th | 5-2 (.714) | LSU (9-3/13) | Georgia (12-1/6) |
| PSU | 161 (4th)/37.2 | 224 (4th)/11.4 | 89-62 (.589) – 15th | 5-2 (.714) | Iowa (10-3/17) | Ohio St (11-2/7) |
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These two teams are very close statistically except for defense. Vegas likes Penn St-4.0 and the GCR agrees. Nittany Lions win and cover.
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In the Music City Bowl out of Nashville with a 2:00 kickoff, the Auburn Tigers (6-6/47) will try to keep the Tiger mascot streak alive vs the Maryland Terrapins (7-5/45).
| Team | OER/PPG | DER/PPG | Opp’s Record – Rank | Vs Bowl Teams | Best Win | Worst Loss |
| AUB | 104 (108th)/27.3 | 140 (29th)/21.9 | 86-64 (.573) – 30th | 1-6 (.167) | California (6-7/52) | New Mexico St (10-5/82) |
| MARY | 128 (33rd)/29.6 | 106 (101st)/23.3 | 77-70 (.524) – 49th | 1-4 (.200) | Michigan St (4-8/35) | Illinois (5-7/69) |
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This is a tough one because it’s pretty even OER/DER whoever has the ball, but neither team has done well against bowl-eligible teams. Something has to give. Vegas likes Auburn-6.0 and the GCR has a split decision. Auburn wins, Maryland covers.
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In the game that’s been talked about more than any other, even the playoff games, the Georgia Bulldogs (12-1/6) take on the Florida St Seminoles (13-0/2) at 4:00 in Miami Gardens at the Orange Bowl.
| Team | OER/PPG | DER/PPG | Opp’s Record – Rank | Vs Bowl Teams | Best Win | Worst Loss |
| GEO | 148 (10th)/38.4 | 175 (6th)/16.6 | 89-70 (.560) – 45th | 6-1 (.857) | Mississippi (10-2/11) | Alabama (12-1/5) |
| FSU | 141 (18th)/37.0 | 173 (7th)/15.9 | 81-92 (.497) – 69th | 8-0 (1.000) | LSU (9-3/13) | — |
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Vegas has GEO-20.0 and the GCR thinks the Bulldogs will win. This is why bowl games are so hard to predict: FSU lost really critical players to the transfer portal, injury, or opting out. Georgia did too, as most teams have. The GCR does not use this type of data towards its predictions. The pendulum has swung from players having no rights to having the best of both worlds: NIL money and opt-out capability. I don’t think it can be both and the NCAA will correct that at some point. What’s at stake in this game is a nightmare scenario for the playoff committee. If FSU wins and either Texas or Alabama wins the playoff, there will be a single undefeated team left and they won’t be the champions. Granted that awful SOS hurt the Seminoles in placement anyway, but still. Georgia wins ending all controversy, but FSU covers.
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Our final game today before the NFL takes over is relatively early with a 4:30 kickoff. The Toledo Rockets (11-2/30) will fight the Wyoming Cowboys (8-4/61) in the Arizona Bowl in Tucson.
| Team | OER/PPG | DER/PPG | Opp’s Record – Rank | Vs Bowl Teams | Best Win | Worst Loss |
| TOL | 127 (36th)/33.6 | 117 (70th)/20.6 | 78-87 (.466) – 124th | 5-1 (.833) | Miami OH (11-3/36) | Illinois (5-7/69) |
| WYO | 95 (146th)/26.1 | 126 (54th)/22.9 | 84-70 (.545) – 77th | 3-4 (.429) | Texas Tech (7-6/39) | UNLV (9-5/85) |
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Vegas has Wyoming-3.5, but the GCR sees the Toledo body of work as more impactful. Rockets win and cover.
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That’s it for today and for this calendar year. Thank you for another year of putting up with the analysis that is the GCR. Thank you as always for reading and sharing with others. Happy New Year, G.
