Welcome to episode 438 of the GCR. I guess technically there are a lot more as this blog started out as a simple email to coworkers and such for years. But I didn’t keep count, so #438 coming up. Yesterday was a rest day following 8 games that started at 11:00am (all times Eastern) and ended well after midnight. It was blissful. We saw just about everything: safeties, blocked PAT return for a TD, comebacks to make what looked like blowouts close games after all, records were broken, Snoop Dogg and Pop-Tarts, bad calls, fantastic plays, and awful fights that injured referees and players. The American Conference picked up its 6th win in 7 tries while the ACC (1-9) seems to be looking for ways to lose (including their star QB sitting on the sidelines for the 2nd half with the game on the line). So far, they’ve lost to the MAC, the Mountain West, the American, the Big Ten (twice), the SEC (twice), an Independent UCONN, the Big 12. Their lone win was Syracuse over the Pac-12’s Washington St.
…..
With 8 games, I’ll just post the scores: UCONN (9-4/77) took out North Carolina (6-7/94) in the Fenway Bowl 27-14, Nebraska (7-6/50) beat Boston College (7-6/56) in the Pinstripe Bowl 20-15, TCU (9-4/41) spanked Louisiana (10-4/63) in the New Mexico Bowl 34-3, Iowa St (11-3/14) edged Miami FL (10-3/15) in the Pop-Tarts Bowl 42-41, Miami OH (9-5/70) stomped Colorado St (8-5/93) in the Arizona Bowl (43-17), East Carolina (8-5/86) stunned NC St (6-7/72) in the Military Bowl 26-21, BYU (11-2/8) embarrassed Colorado (9-4/27) in the Alamo Bowl 36-14, and Army (12-2/16) took care of business over LA Tech (5-8/131) in the Independence Bowl 27-6.
…..
They were fun games, but the prediction model missed every ACC game going 4-4 straight up for the day and just 3-5 against the spread. In addition to a horrible win-loss record this postseason, the ACC is 0-10 against the spread. Here are the latest standings:
| Conf | Total Games | Games Played | Wins | Losses | Points Scored | Points Allowed | GCR Rating | GCR Rank |
| IND | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 54 | 31 | 0.721 | 1 |
| AAC | 8 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 209 | 171 | 0.613 | 2 |
| MAC | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 203 | 178 | 0.530 | 3 |
| Big Ten | 14 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 193 | 144 | 0.529 | 4 |
| SEC | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 213 | 183 | 0.487 | 5 |
| B12 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 233 | 216 | 0.480 | 6 |
| SUN | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 139 | 180 | 0.424 | 7 |
| USA | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 81 | 110 | 0.310 | 8 |
| MWC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 100 | 125 | 0.306 | 9 |
| ACC | 13 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 263 | 333 | 0.275 | 10 |
| P12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 35 | 52 | 0.211 | 11 |
…..
We only have a single game today as a prep to the big games over the next two days. Nashville’s TransPerfect Music City Bowl, kicking off at 2:30, should be a good one, like down to the wire kind of games. The Big Ten’s 6th place Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4/34) take on the SEC’s 9th place Missouri Tigers (9-3/31). Iowa had two bad losses to go along with their 3-2 record against bowl-eligible teams. Upsets by Michigan St and UCLA (both 5-7) kept the Hawkeyes from achieving not only double-digit wins, but an argument for the playoffs. Although they played 2 teams in the current GCR Top 25, @Ohio St and Iowa St, losing to both, their opponents were just 79-71 (.527) good for 60th strength of schedule (SOS). While Mizzou also played 2 Top 25 teams, losing at Alabama and South Carolina, they didn’t face a 10-win team. That could change if either or both Top 25 opponents win tomorrow, but their SOS as of today was just 76th with opponents going 71-78 (.472). Way back in early August, the GCR predicted that the Tigers would have the easiest SEC schedule, and they did (note: the average SEC team faced a .568 opponents’ winning percentage). According to the GCR prediction model, they should have beaten Texas A&M (8-5) which kept them from 10 wins and playoff discussion. Vegas has MIZZ-2.5, and this was a difficult call. The GCR has MIZZ to win 52%, which is roughly 2 points. I think this game will be decided by a field goal. MIZZ to win and cover, but this feels more like a coin toss than most games. You can watch it on ESPN.
| Time | Bowl (Location) | Team | Team | Vegas | GCR Win | GCR Cover |
| 2:30 | TransPerfect Music City (Nashville) | Iowa (8-4/34) | Missouri (9-3/31) | MIZZ-2.5 | MIZZ 52% | MIZZ |
…..
That’s it for today. Tune in tomorrow for the New Year’s Eve Bowls and the first round of the quarterfinals. Thank you for reading and sharing with others, G
