Welcome back sports fans as we travel to Montgomery Alabama. Back in 2010 when I was moving to South Africa for six months, I had to get my fingerprints as part of the business visa application process. Just before I left, six-year-old JoJo, along with me and my wife/her mother, went to Gulf Shores to spend some time together – they were staying in the US while I was working overseas. We decided to stop in Montgomery at the courthouse to get the fingerprints done. I saw the sign, went in the room, and was done in less than ten minutes. When I came out a number of police officers were giving me the evil eye, so I turned around to see if someone was behind me. Then I saw the sign above the door which read, “sex offenders and fingerprinting.” I immediately held my palms up and said, “just fingerprints.” They did not seem impressed. I have not been to Montgomery since then.
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Friday and Saturday, we had a whirlwind of football. First, Navy took down Army by scoring the last 10 points of the game to edge the Black Knights out 17-16. The GCR got the win but missed the spread. Boise St was clueless against Washington in the LA Bowl losing 38-10 bolstered by throwing 5 interceptions. In the FCS, it took 4 overtimes but South Carolina St outlasted Prairie View 40-38 to capture the HBCU title in the Celebration Bowl. And in the FCS playoffs, Montana St (Steph F Austin), Villanova (Tarleton), Montana (South Dakota), Illinois St (UC Davis) advance to the semis. Montana will replay Montana St on the road while Illinois St will play its 4th playoff road game at Villanova. The winners will play for the championship in Nashville January 5th.
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The GCR picked both FBS games straight up (just choosing the winners) and were just 2-3 in the FCS games. That brings the FBS record to 1005-391 (.720) and the FCS record to 570-216 (.725). The combined straight up record is now 1575-606 (.722) for the season. Against the spread, which now includes FCS games, we went 4-3 (.571) bringing the season to 368-343 (.518). Just so you know, the reason we don’t use the spread in FCS games during the regular season is they are not easily found as early in the week as we publish (most of the season on Tuesdays). We do not want to predict after we publish (although technically we could because the percent to win is an indicator), because that feels forced. During the playoffs, the odds are published sooner so we can publish. The more you know. As a reminder, the records and ranks may differ from the last G’s Evaluation because each game after the FBS conference championship week are included the next day. All Expectations for the bowls/playoffs remaining will include any ranking changes, but we don’t publish the final rankings until after the FBS championship game.
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Now back to Montgomery. With a 9:00 Eastern kickoff on ESPN, we have the Troy Trojans (8-5/74), runners up in the Sun Belt facing the Jacksonville St Gamecocks (8-5/82), runners up in Conference USA in the Salute to Veterans Bowl. Neither of these teams wants to finish the season with two straight losses so we expect it to be well fought. As is the norm in most bowl games, Vegas sees a very close one TROY-1.5. The GCR came up 50/50, and as you know, we do not like ties. Earlier in the season, we listed these types of games as picks but then changed midseason. The primary reason for this was that we can’t count picks in the weekly or seasonal totals. We essentially punted as far as the predictor goes – can’t be right, can’t be wrong. So, when the calculation is a pick, the GCR selects the team with the better GCR rank – in this case TROY at 50.0%. So, the GCR agrees with Vegas on the winner, but will pick JXST to cover. Of course, the only way to get both correct is for the Gamecocks to win 17-16 like Navy did, or a similar 1-point game, but that is our pick based on the algorithm that is the GCR.
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That’s it for today. Thank you for reading. We want to give a shout out to all of our readers who share with others. We continue to grow and it is all because of you! Thank you from both JoJo and G. See you tomorrow for the Cure Bowl and the 68 Ventures Bowl, which has a bit of history-making to it.
