Hello and let’s start with a heartfelt thank you for those who started with me in August and have stayed the course throughout this crazy season. Also, to those who joined along the way, and for everyone who has shared the link, shown a post, or just talked about anything you read here to anyone else. This is not the last post of the year – lots of analysis to be done – but it does begin the slowing down of the pace a bit. There is much to look at and prepare for next season.
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Before I talk about the big game, I would be remiss not to revisit the FCS Championship Game and congratulate the North Dakota State Bison. James Madison gave it all they have and kept the Dukes Nation hopes alive until the final seconds of the game. A 28-20 game to extend the Bison’s longest Division I active win streak at 37. The Dukes once again were the bridesmaid to the 8 titles in 10 years behemoths named for actual behemoths.
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The longest active FBS winning streak is currently at 29 for the #1 Clemson Tigers. They have a chance to become the first FBS school in history to win 30 games in 2 seasons. They face a formidable offense in LSU (2) who annihilated Big 12 champion Oklahoma 63-28. In addition to the normal analysis, I thought we could look at a tale of the tape first. See the table below:
The two finalists had 1 common opponent: Texas A&M. Clemson had their second closest regular season game (behind the famous 1-point victory at North Carolina) with a 24-10 win in week 2. LSU had no trouble in rivalry week winning 50-7. The Orange Tigers only faced 1 team outside of the top 100 (versus 4 for the Purple Tigers), but only had one opponent in the top 15 (5 for LSU). 10 Clemson opponents played in the postseason (including Wofford who lost in the first round of the FCS playoffs) who were a combined 3-7. LSU’s 10 bowl-bound opponents fared a little better at 5-5. One of the things you look for in a champion is dominating their opponents. Clemson had 11 30+ point wins while LSU only had 6. LSU had 3 one-score victories, while Clemson had 2 (one of them notably in the Playoffs).
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The Orange guys played 10 good (6+ win) teams and just 1 great (10+win) foe. The Purplemen had 10 and 4 respectively. In their first 14 games LSU faced 5 top 25 teams while Clemson opposed only 2. They did have that impressive come from behind win against Ohio State. When they have the ball, they will bring the 4th best offense (165 OffEff) against the 29th best defense (141). You can see in the table above that Clemson averages 45.3 points per game and LSU has given up a somewhat pedestrian 21.6, including giving up 28 or more 6 times (Ohio State scored 23 against Clemson which was the season high points allowed). When LSU has the ball, the #2 offense (188) will face the #1 defense (258). If Clemson can hold LSU to field goals like it did against Ohio State, it could be over quickly. LSU scored at least 30 on everyone except Auburn (23-20). FYI, Clemson failed to score 30 on 3 separate occasions.
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All of this, to me, points to a very entertaining and, evenly matched game. I don’t bet on college football and never encourage others to do so (I have a soon to be 16 year old daughter and can attest that teenagers often do not respond to pressure situations as we hope they will or at least not consistently). If I did bet, I would have a really hard time with this one. Vegas has LSU -5.5 most likely because of the semi-final games. In this post, as I read back through it, I seem to be talking myself out of LSU being the team while simultaneously doing the exact same thing to Clemson. I find it interesting that LSU is #2 in the 2020 corrected formula while Clemson is #3 (note: these rankings were not adjusted for bowl games, including the playoffs). In that 2020 version, I have Clemson winning on a neutral field 50.2% of the time which is a literal coin toss (to match the mental one in my head), but this game is in New Orleans and while the Clemson faithful will most certainly fill the seats with Orange, the LSU fans could make this a home game, at least in energy. In the 2020 model LSU wins 56.8% in a home game. It’s not really a home game, so average those and LSU 53.3% (I have no way to justify the average, it just helps my thought process). But, this is 2019 and, flawed though it may be, I have to use that formula. In a neutral game (which technically this is), Clemson wins 58.4%. LSU at home drops that to 51.2% for Clemson. That, again not really sure what it means, average is Clemson 54.8%. So, Clemson will win it’s 3rd championship in 4 years and the dynasty will continue. Although, if the rest of the ACC (I think it earned the All Clemson Conference moniker for this season) has another mediocre year (no other “great” teams and a losing record in bowl games including 2-2 against Group of 5 opponents), the margin of error for Clemson will be paper thin.
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That’s it for this one. There will be much more analysis and learning as the months go by. Keep tuning in and inviting others to do the same. Thanks again, G
