G’s Expectation or This Is Going to Be Fun!

Welcome back sports fans! For years, the MAC has treated us to November Tuesday and Wednesday night football. Not only do we get football (pro and/or college) every day of the month, but we get to focus on the Mighty Mac. These kids, who normally are on ESPN+ with the premiere weekly matchup on ESPNU, get to play to national audiences with no competition from the Big Ten or SEC, etc. But that’s in November, so why am I talking about it now? Because last season, Conference USA decided to adopt the MACNation approach in October. This week, the first game is on Wednesday, but starting next week, games will begin on Tuesday. Starting tonight, the next day without some sort of football on TV is Wednesday, November 26 – 49 days from now! So, hat’s off to Conference USA and the MAC for giving us a chance to enjoy the game we love every day.

…..

Of the four CUSA games tonight and tomorrow, the best game is between two teams undefeated in conference play when LA Tech (4-1/37) invades the hoots of the Kennesaw St Owls (3-2/85) Thursday at 7:00 (all times Eastern) on ESPNU. LATC has only given up 68 points this year, making them the 12th best defense according the GCR’s metric: DER (Defensive Efficiency Rating). That means they only give up 6.8 points for every 10.0 points their opponents score on average. Very formidable. KNST’s OER (Offensive Efficiency Rating) is below average at 87 (161st) meaning they only score 8.7 points for every 10.0 points their opponents allow on average. I’ve been to a Kennesaw St game and it’s a wonderful place to watch a game. When they make a first down, the announcer says, “and that’s another,” – insert marching band flourish – “KSU first down! – hoo.” The soft owl sound after all of that is interesting, but when the team I was pulling for (Presbyterian when they were both in the Big South) is down 42-0 at the half, the “hoos” became annoying. I don’t think they will have a lot to hoot about offensively tomorrow night, however, although it is a very difficult place to play on the road. Vegas has LATC-5.5 and the GCR agrees LATC 60% and to cover.

…..

The best Friday game is South Florida (4-1/48), whose only loss was at Miami FL (5-0/5), faces a very strong North Texas (5-0/25) team in Denton, TX with a 7:30 kickoff on ESPN2. Both of these teams are offense minded. The Bulls have an OER of 148 (29th) and will face a mediocre NTEX DER of 112 (107th). When the Mean Green are driving, they bring an elite OER of 169 (10th) vs a SFLA DER of 124 (77th). The over for this game is a whopping 67.5 and I can understand why. This game could come down to who has the ball last. Vegas sees it that way with NTEX-1.5 at home. The GCR agrees but sees the Mean Green scoring a lot – NTEX to win 65% of the time and to cover.

…..

There is a double-header at the noon hour on Saturday for the split-screen-capable folks. Alabama (4-1/17) is at Missouri (5-0/24). On paper, Alabama has proven themselves the most to date, but Faurot Field adds a few points for the Tigers every game. Vegas has ALA-2.5, but the GCR sees a Vegas upset here with MIZZ winning 62% of the time. Watch it on ABC. The paired game is Ohio St (5-0/2) at Illinois (5-1/7). Similar scenario although Memorial Stadium doesn’t have the same fear factor. Illinois has looked really good this year except for the WTH loss to Indiana (5-0/1) 63-10. They did come back the next week and upset Southern Cal (4-1/9) 34-32, also in Champaign. Vegas sees the Buckeyes running away with this one -14.5, and the GCR does see them as winning 57% of the time. The GCR percent gives an anticipated point spread – simply take the number and subtract 50%. In this case, the GCR sees OHST winning by 7 points. ILL will lose, but they will cover. Watch this one on Fox.

…..

Staying in the Big Ten for the mid-afternoon game (3:30) with Indiana (5-0/1) heading west to tackle Oregon (5-0/4) in the game of the week, which can be seen on CBS. When the Hoosiers have the ball, they bring the country’s best OER of 194 (1st) – 63 on Illinois helped that a lot – and will face an Oregon DER of 210 (7th). This is the very definition of strength on strength. But wait, there’s more. A Ducks OER of 188 (2nd) will face an IND DER of 307 (3rd). Again, the epitome of a great matchup. The best two offenses vs two top 7 defenses. Vegas likes ORE at home -7.5. The last two GCR #1 teams to play (Indiana was bye last week but held the position) were NC St and Southern Cal – both of whom lost from the spot. The GCR thinks it will happen again with ORE winning 56% which is just a field goal above home field advantage. We do calculate that Indiana will cover, but Cinderella may be dropping a shoe on the way out of Eugene.

…..

Our night game, at 8:00 on ESPN2 pits BYU (5-0/13) at Arizona (4-1/36). Both of these teams have average to above average offenses, but their defenses have helped them win games. Compare the over of 48.0 points to the South Florida/North Texas game above. Vegas has BYU winning a close one in Tucson -1.5, and the GCR agrees 60% and to cover.

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That’s it for today. See the table below for every game in Division I. As always, thank you for reading, and, especially, for sharing with others. We always welcome your feedback, suggestions, and criticisms so that we can continually improve the GCR. Until next time, JoJo and G

Time (Eastern)Away Team
(Record/
GCR Rank)
Conf (Rec)Home Team (Record/
GCR Rank)
Conf (Rec)VegasGCR WinGCR CoverTV
ACC (17 teams) – Core 4
12:00Stanford (2-3/79)ACC (1-1)SMU (3-2/50)ACC (1-0)SMU-19.5SMU 70%SMUCW Network
12:00Pittsburgh (3-2/55)ACC (1-1)Florida St
(3-2/43)
ACC (0-2)FSU-10.5PITT 51%PITTESPN
3:30Virginia Tech (2-4/101)ACC (1-1)Georgia Tech (5-0/14)ACC (2-0)GT-14.5GT 95%GTACCN
3:30NC St (4-2/42)ACC (2-2)Notre Dame (3-2/23)IND (0-0)ND-21.5ND 57%NCSTPeacock
3:30Wake Forest (3-2/54)ACC (1-2)Oregon St (0-6/123)PAC (0-0)WAKE-2.5WAKE 83%WAKECW Network
7:30Clemson (2-3/63)ACC (1-2)Boston College
(1-4/122)
ACC (0-3)CLEM-14.5CLEM 61%BCACCN
Idle – California (4-2/58), Duke (4-2/26), Louisville (4-1/16), Miami FL (5-0/5), Syracuse (3-3/74), Virginia (5-1/11)
Big 12 (16 teams) – Core 4
12:00Houston (4-1/40)B12 (1-1)Oklahoma St (1-4/131)B12 (0-2)HOU-14.5HOU 85%HOUTNT/
HBO Max
12:00UCF (3-2/72)B12 (0-2)Cincinnati (4-1/30)B12 (2-0)CIN-11.5CIN 64%CINFS1
3:30TCU (4-1/20)B12 (1-1)Kansas St
(2-4/76)
B12 (1-3)KSST-1.5TCU 76%TCUFOX
3:30Iowa St
(5-1/19)
B12 (2-1)Colorado (2-4/68)B12 (0-3)IAST-2.5IAST 75%IASTESPN
7:30Kansas (4-2/33)B12 (2-1)Texas Tech (5-0/3)B12 (2-0)TXTC-14.5TXTC 78%TXTCFOX
8:00BYU (5-0/13)B12 (2-0)Arizona (4-1/36)B12 (2-1)BYU-1.5BYU 60%BYUESPN2
10:15Arizona St
(4-1/21)
B12 (2-0)Utah (4-1/22)B12 (1-1)UTAH-5.5UTAH 61%UTAHESPN
Idle – Baylor (4-2/52), West Virginia (2-4/96)
Big Ten (18 teams) – Core 4
FRI 9:00Rutgers (3-2/66)B10 (0-2)Washington (4-1/18)B10 (1-1)WASH-10.5WASH 66%WASHFS1
12:00Ohio St
(5-0/2)
B10 (2-0)Illinois (5-1/7)B10 (2-1)OHST-14.5OHST 57%ILLFOX
12:00UCLA (1-4/105)B10 (1-1)Michigan St (3-2/53)B10 (0-2)MIST-8.5MIST 79%MISTBTN
3:30Nebraska (4-1/28)B10 (1-1)Maryland (4-1/34)B10 (1-1)NEB-6.5MARY 54%MARYBTN
3:30Northwestern (3-2/62)B10 (1-1)Penn St
(3-2/56)
B10 (0-2)PSU-21.5PSU 59%NWFS1
3:30Indiana (5-0/1)B10 (2-0)Oregon (5-0/4)B10 (2-0)ORE-7.5ORE 56%INDCBS
7:00Iowa (3-2/46)B10 (1-1)Wisconsin (2-3/82)B10 (0-2)IOWA-3.5IOWA 63%IOWAFS1
7:30Michigan (4-1/8)B10 (2-0)Southern Cal (4-1/9)B10 (2-1)SCAL-2.5SCAL 59%SCALNBC
7:30Purdue (2-3/88)B10 (0-2)Minnesota (3-2/59)B10 (1-1)MINN-7.5MINN 67%MINNBTN
Idle – none
SEC (16 teams) – Core 4
12:00Alabama (4-1/17)SEC (2-0)Missouri (5-0/24)SEC (1-0)ALA-2.5MIZZ 62%MIZZABC
12:45Washington St (3-2/61)PAC (0-0)Mississippi (5-0/12)SEC (3-0)MISS-32.5MISS 67%WASTSECN
3:30Oklahoma (5-0/10)SEC (1-0)Texas (3-2/65)SEC (0-1)TEX-1.5OKLA 66%OKLAABC
4:15Arkansas (2-3/86)SEC (0-1)Tennessee (4-1/35)SEC (1-1)TENN-12.5TENN 74%TENNSECN
7:00Florida (2-3/84)SEC (1-1)Texas A&M (5-0/6)SEC (2-0)TAM-7.5TAM 78%TAMESPN
7:30Georgia (4-1/31)SEC (2-1)Auburn (3-2/39)SEC (0-2)GEO-3.5GEO 52%AUBABC
7:45South Carolina (3-2/70)SEC (1-2)LSU (4-1/32)SEC (1-1)LSU-9.5LSU 63%LSUSECN
Idle – Kentucky (2-3/93), Mississippi St (4-2/45), Vanderbilt (5-1/29)
AAC (14 teams) – Group of 5
THU 7:30East Carolina (3-2/60)AAC (1-0)Tulane (4-1/38)AAC (1-0)TULN-6.5TULN 59%TULNESPN
FRI 7:30South Florida (4-1/48)AAC (1-0)North Texas (5-0/25)AAC (1-0)NTEX-1.5NTEX 65%NTEXESPN2
12:00Charlotte (1-4/157)AAC (0-2)Army (2-3/92)AAC (1-2)ARMY-17.5ARMY 70%ARMYCBS Sports
4:00Navy (5-0/44)AAC (3-0)Temple (3-2/81)AAC (1-0)NAVY-9.5NAVY 66%NAVYESPN2
6:00UAB (2-3/112)AAC (0-2)FAU (2-3/115)AAC (1-1)FAU-4.5FAU 54%UABESPN+
7:30Rice (3-3/102)AAC (1-2)UTSA (2-3/111)AAC (0-1)UTSA-11.5RICE 50%RICEESPNU
Idle – Memphis (6-0/15), Tulsa (2-4/114)
C-USA (12 teams) – Group of 5
WED 7:30Missouri St (2-3/116)USA (0-1)Middle Tennessee
(1-4/161)
USA (0-1)MOST-2.5MOST 55%MOSTESPN2
WED 8:00Liberty (1-4/137)USA (0-1)UTEP (1-4/139)USA (0-1)LIB-1.5UTEP 53%UTEPCBS Sports
THU 7:00LA Tech
(4-1/37)
USA (2-0)Kennesaw St (3-2/85)USA (1-0)LATC-5.5LATC 60%LATCESPNU
THU 8:00Jacksonville St (2-3/120)USA (1-0)Sam Houston
(0-5/148)
USA (0-2)JAX-7.5JAX 68%JAXCBS Sports
Idle – Delaware (3-2/77), FIU (2-3/127), New Mexico St (3-2/95), W Kentucky (5-1/64)
FBS Independents (2 teams) – Notre Dame=Core 4, UCONN=Group of 5
OOC – Notre Dame (NC St-ACC)
Idle – UCONN (4-2/73)
MAC (13 teams) – Group of 5
12:00Toledo (3-2/69)MAC (1-1)Bowling Green
(2-3/103)
MAC (0-1)TOL-10.5TOL 64%TOLESPNU
12:00Miami OH
(2-3/104)
MAC (1-0)Akron (2-4/130)MAC (1-1)MIAO-11.5MIAO 52%AKRESPN+
1:00N Illinois
(1-4/135)
MAC (0-1)E Michigan (1-5/145)MAC (0-2)EMI-1.5EMI 53%EMIESPN+
2:30UMASS (0-5/190)MAC (0-1)Kent St (1-4/129)MAC (0-1)KTST-2.5KTST 62%KTSTESPN+
3:30Ball St (2-3/118)MAC (1-0)W Michigan (3-3/87)MAC (2-0)WMI-8.5WMI 60%WMIESPN+
Idle – Buffalo (3-3/113), C Michigan (3-3/110), Ohio (3-3/94)
Mountain West (12 teams) – Group of 5
FRI 9:00Fresno St
(5-1/57)
MWC (2-0)Colorado St (1-4/140)MWC (0-1)FRST-6.5FRST 77%FRSTCBS Sports
3:30Air Force
(1-4/125)
MWC (0-3)UNLV (5-0/47)MWC (1-0)UNLV-6.5UNLV 87%UNLVCBS Sports
7:00San Jose St
(2-3/106)
MWC (1-0)Wyoming (2-3/119)MWC (0-1)SJST-1.5SJST 52%SJSTCBS Sports
9:45New Mexico (3-2/71)MWC (0-1)Boise St
(3-2/67)
MWC (1-0)BOST-16.5BOST 51%NMEXFS1
10:30San Diego St (4-1/51)MWC (1-0)Nevada (1-4/132)MWC (0-1)SDST-7.5SDST 74%SDSTCBS Sports
11:59Utah St
(3-2/80)
MWC (1-0)Hawaii (4-2/89)MWC (1-1)HAW-2.5HAW 55%HAWSpectrum Sports
Idle – none
Pac-12 (2 teams) – Group of 5
OOC – Oregon St (Wake Forest-ACC), Washington St (@Mississippi-SEC)
Sun Belt (14 teams) – Group of 5
THU 8:00Southern Miss (3-2/49)SUN (1-0)Ga Southern (2-3/90)SUN (0-1)SMIS-3.5SMIS 61%SMISESPN2
12:00Louisiana (2-3/100)SUN (1-0)James Madison
(4-1/41)
SUN (2-0)JMU-17.5JMU 78%JMUESPN2
3:30Old Dominion (4-1/27)SUN (1-0)Marshall (2-3/99)SUN (0-1)OD-14.5OD 72%ODESPN+
3:30App St
(3-2/91)
SUN (0-1)Georgia St (1-4/108)SUN (0-1)APST-2.5APST 73%APSTESPN+
7:00ULM (3-2/83)SUN (1-0)Coastal Car (2-3/98)SUN (1-1)ULM-2.5ULM 60%ULMESPN+
8:00Troy (3-2/78)SUN (1-0)Texas St
(3-2/75)
SUN (0-1)TXST-9.5TXST 58%TROYESPN+
Idle – Arkansas St (2-4/107), South Alabama (1-5/124)
Big Sky (12 teams) – FCS
3:00Idaho St
(2-4/175)
SKY (1-1)Montana St (4-2/134)SKY (2-0)MTST 67%ESPN+
4:00Cal Poly
(3-3/176)
SKY (1-1)Montana (5-0/143)SKY (2-0)MONT 70%ESPN+
5:00N Colorado (2-3/223)SKY (0-1)Idaho (2-3/159)SKY (0-1)IDA 61%ESPN+
7:00N Arizona
(4-2/188)
SKY (1-1)UC Davis
(4-1/155)
SKY (2-0)UCD 62%ESPN+
8:00Sacramento St (2-3/179)SKY (0-1)Weber St
(2-3/210)
SKY (0-1)SAC 58%ESPN+
Idle – E Washington (2-4/226), Portland St (0-6/246)
Big South/Ohio Valley (9 teams) – FCS
3:00Gardner Webb (3-2/180)BSOV (1-0)E Illinois
(3-2/201)
BSOV (2-0)EILL 63%ESPN+
3:00W Illinois
(1-5/230)
BSOV (0-2)Tennessee Martin
(1-5/262)
BSOV (1-1)TMAR 56%ESPN+
4:00Tennessee St (1-4/250)BSOV (0-2)SEMO (1-4/247)BSOV (0-1)SEMO 52%ESPN+
4:00Tennessee Tech
(5-0/138)
BSOV (2-0)Charleston So
(1-5/229)
BSOV (0-2)TNTC 68%ESPN+
Idle – Lindenwood (3-3/200)
Coastal (14 teams) – FCS
Fri 7:00Brown (2-1/136)IVY (0-1)Bryant (2-4/241)CAA (0-3)BRO 57%FloFootball
1:00South Carolina St
(3-3/214)
MEAC (0-0)North Carolina A&T (1-5/258)CAA (1-2)SCST 52%FloFootball
1:00Maine (2-4/218)CAA (2-1)Merrimack (3-3/212)FCS (0-0)MAIN 57%FloFootball
1:00New Hampshire
(3-3/195)
CAA (1-1)Rhode Island (4-2/172)CAA (2-0)RISL 60%FloFootball
2:00Monmouth (4-1/150)CAA (1-0)Towson (3-3/192)CAA (1-1)MON 58%FloFootball
2:00Campbell (1-5/238)CAA (1-1)Hampton (2-4/228)CAA (0-2)HAM 66%FloFootball
2:00Villanova (3-2/160)CAA (2-1)Elon (4-2/153)CAA (2-0)ELON 62%FloFootball
Idle – Albany (1-5/255), Stony Brook (3-3/171), William & Mary (3-3/187)
FCS Independent (2 teams) – FCS
1:00Howard (3-2/191)MEAC (0-0)Sacred Heart (4-2/185)FCS (0-0)SH 57%ESPN+
OOC – Merrimack (Maine-CAA)
Idle – none
Ivy League (8 teams) – FCS
FRI 7:00Cornell (0-3/261)IVY (0-1)Harvard (3-0/97)Ivy (1-0)HARV 99%ESPNU
FRI 7:00Marist (3-2/182)PFL (1-1)Penn (2-1/154)IVY (1-0)MARI 55%ESPN+
12:00Lehigh (6-0/126)PAT (2-0)Columbia (1-2/194)IVY (0-1)LEH 66%ESPN+
12:00Mercer (4-1/156)SoCon (4-0)Princeton (2-1/167)IVY (1-0)MERC 51%ESPN+
1:30Yale (2-1/162)IVY (1-0)Dartmouth (2-1/163)IVY (0-1)YALE 53%ESPN+
OOC – Brown (@Bryant-CAA)
Idle – none
MEAC (6 teams) – FCS
1:00Lynchburg
(NA)
NAMorgan St (2-4/231)MEAC (0-0)ESPN+
1:00S Conn (NA)NADelaware St (3-3/181)MEAC (0-0)ESPN+
1:30Norfolk St
(1-5/257)
MEAC (0-0)Wofford (0-5/242)SoCon (0-2)WOFF 59%ESPN+
3:00NC Central
(4-2/177)
MEAC (0-0)Florida A&M (1-3/248)SWAC (0-1)NCC 62%HBCUGo
OOC – Howard (@Sacred Heart-FCS), South Carolina St (@North Carolina A&T-CAA)
Idle – none
Missouri Valley (10 teams) – FCS
1:00South Dakota (3-3/170)MVFC (1-1)Indiana St
(2-3/186)
MVFC (0-1)SDAK 52%ESPN+
3:00N Iowa
(2-3/221)
MVFC (0-1)South Dakota St
(5-0/128)
MVFC (1-0)SDKS 80%ESPN+
3:30S Illinois
(4-1/149)
MVFC (1-0)North Dakota St
(5-0/109)
MVFC (2-0)NDST 72%ESPN+
4:00Youngstown St (3-2/169)MVFC (0-1)North Dakota (3-2/141)MVFC (1-0)NDAK 69%ESPN+
7:00Illinois St
(3-2/152)
MVFC (0-1)Murray St
(0-5/265)
MVFC (0-1)ILST 65%ESPN+
Idle -none
Northeast (9 teams) – FCS
12:00Mercyhurst (2-4/199)NEC (2-0)Wagner (1-4/244)NEC (0-0)MHUR 57%NEC Front Row
1:00St Francis
(0-5/263)
NEC (0-1)Duquesne (3-3/203)NEC (2-0)DUQ 72%NEC Front Row
1:00W Conn (NA)NANew Haven (3-3/227)NEC (0-2)NEC Front Row
2:00C Connecticut (3-3/197)NEC (1-0)Robert Morris (1-4/252)NEC (0-0)CCON 56%ESPN+
Idle – Long Island (1-5/225), Stonehill (2-4/222)
Patriot League (8 teams) – FCS
12:30Bucknell (4-2/202)PAT (1-1)Lafayette (4-2/165)PAT (2-0)LAF 62%ESPN+
1:00Richmond (3-3/198)PAT (0-2)Colgate (2-3/193)PAT (1-0)COLG 58%ESPN+
OOC – Lehigh (@Columbia-IVY)
Idle – Fordham (1-5/260), Georgetown (3-3/196), Holy Cross (0-6/236)
Pioneer League (11 teams) – FCS
1:00St Thomas
(2-3/208)
PFL (0-2)Davidson (1-4/251)PFL (0-1)STTH 57%ESPN+
1:00Morehead St (2-4/232)PFL (0-2)Stetson (2-4/243)PFL (1-1)MHST 55%ESPN+
1:00Presbyterian (5-0/144)PFL (1-0)Butler (4-2/205)PFL (2-0)PC 54%ESPN+
2:00Dayton (4-1/174)PFL (2-0)Valparaiso (1-4/245)PFL (0-1)DAY 62%ESPN+
5:00Drake (2-2/184)PFL (1-0)San Diego
(3-3/211)
PFL (1-1)DRAK 51%ESPN+
OOC – Marist (@Penn-IVY)
Idle – none
SoCon (9 teams) – FCS
2:00Valdosta St (NA)NACitadel (2-3/213)SoCon (2-1)ESPN+
2:30Furman (4-1/164)SoCon (2-0)W Carolina (3-3/217)SoCon (2-0)FUR 57%ESPN+
3:30VMI (1-4/235)SoCon (0-1)E Tennessee St
(2-4/173)
SoCon (0-2)ETSU 65%ESPN+
OOC – Mercer (@Princeton-IVY), Wofford (Norfolk St-MEAC)
Idle – Chattanooga (2-4/183), Samford (0-6/264)
Southland (10 teams) – FCS
7:00Lamar (4-1/158)SLAN (1-0)East Texas
(1-4/220)
SLAN (1-0)LAM 59%ESPN+
7:00Northwestern St
(1-4/259)
SLAN (0-1)Houston Chr (1-4/237)SLAN (0-1)HOCH 64%ESPN+
Idle – Incarnate Word (2-4/219), McNeese (1-5/256), Nicholls (1-5/239), Rio Grande (5-1/168), Southeastern (4-2/142), Steph F Austin (4-2/166)
SWAC (12 teams) – FCS
3:00Mississippi Valley
(0-4/253)
SWAC (0-2)Alabama A&M
(3-3/233)
SWAC (1-2)ALAM 65%SWAC TV
3:00Lincoln CA (NA)NAAlcorn St
(0-5/254)
SWAC (0-3)SWAC TV
3:00Westgate
(NA)
NAArk Pine Bluff (2-3/234)SWAC (1-1)SWAC TV
3:00Southern (1-4/249)SWAC (1-2)Bethune (2-4/216)SWAC (1-1)BETH 62%SWAC TV
3:30Alabama St
(4-1/151)
SWAC (3-0)Jackson St
(4-1/146)
SWAC (2-0)ALST 53%ESPNU
7:00Texas Southern
(2-3/215)
SWAC (2-1)Grambling St (3-2/204)SWAC (0-1)TXSO 55%ESPN+
OOC – Florida A&M (NC Central-MEAC)
Idle – Grambling St (3-2/204), Prairie View (4-2/206)
UAC (9 teams) – FCS
2:00Abilene Chr (3-3/178)UAC (2-0)West Georgia (5-1/147)UAC (2-1)WGA 74%ESPN+
4:00C Arkansas
(2-4/207)
UAC (1-1)N Alabama (1-4/240)UAC (0-1)CARK 55%ESPN+
6:00Austin Peay (4-2/133)UAC (2-1)E Kentucky (2-3/209)UAC (0-1)AP 66%ESPN+
8:00Tarleton (6-0/121)UAC (2-0)Utah Tech
(1-5/224)
UAC (0-2)TARL 76%ESPN+
Idle – S Utah (1-5/189)