Prior to this week, 90 of the 257 Division I teams played at least one game, 6 of whom have 6 games, and 4 have just a single test so far. This week, we will have 50 games!!! Thanks to 25 teams opening their seasons. All 14 Big 10 teams are starting their conference only schedules. 9 of the 12 [Air Force (17) beat Navy (49)] of the Mountain West kick in – the New Mexico at Colorado St game was cancelled. Conference USA will have 100% participation when Rice takes the field against Middle Tennessee (90) in the “oh, wait, there’s a ‘game’ on” bowl. And FCS Chattanooga travels to W Kentucky (79) in the other “what?” bowl.
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I make fun but the reality is the last couple of weeks have given us an intriguing match up or two, but nothing like this week. Sure, the Big 10 slate has games like Nebraska at Ohio St, Rutgers at Michigan St, Iowa at Purdue, and Illinois at Wisconsin, but another Power 5 conference is playing – forget about the utter sigh we would issue if those matchups were on a normal 3rd Saturday in October. The truth is, based on what we’ve seen so far, we just don’t know. Some of them may be really good. But they are playing!!!! They will be included in next Sunday’s GCR and some teams that are currently in the top 25 will drop. That’s show biz. The MWC offers a similar slate – historically better teams playing against historically weaker teams (at least, historically, in the last few years meaning of the term). Of the 130 FBS teams, 102 will have played by the end of this week, barring more postponements. The FCS is a little different: Chattanooga brings the total to 12 of the 127. More leagues are skipping the idea of playing in the spring and just having a 0-0 year.
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Before I get into what to watch this week other than 25 new teams, obviously, let’s see how the GCR did with predictions. As a reminder, I’ll publish every game’s prediction this year assuming a) it’s FBS vs FBS or FCS vs FCS, and b) both teams have at least 3 games played. Last week, removing postponed games, the GCR predicted 22 games and the expected result was 13.2-8.8 or .600. The expected rate is sum of the percent to win (for the projected winners) divided by the number of games. An example if there were 3 games with these percent to win: 53.8; 78.2; 81.5, the GCR would expect a .702 winning percentage or a 2.1-0.9 record. The actual results were 17-5 (.773) or plus 3.8 wins. The only misses were Coastal Carolina over Louisiana, Kentucky over Tennessee, South Carolina over Auburn, Florida St over UNC, and Wake Forest over Virginia. Here’s the records to date and the expected values for this week (see below for all predictions):
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First there are only 7 games, of the 27 predicted, in the 50% decile – that is really low. 5 are greater than 70% and over half (15) are in the 60% range. Essentially 18-9 (.667) is the breakeven record for this week. I know no one else does, but, I admit I do feel a little pressure here. Again, all predictions are for entertainment purposes only.
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What to watch? What to watch? Well, of the 50 games, there are 15 that involve at least one first timer. Of the remaining 35, 14 are between current top 50 teams (5 top 25 matchups). A welcome sight after the last couple of weeks of, let’s be honest, ho-hum games.
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In the before Saturday games, Thursday night’s top 50 match up of Arkansas St (40) at App St (44) is a good one. The GCR thinks it’s going to be a close one with App St 55.4% but Vegas sees the Mountaineers in a runaway -13. Illinois at Wisconsin -20 on Friday is the kickoff for the Big 10 which will be exciting. The game to watch, however, is Louisiana (11) at UAB (27). A combined 7-2 on the season with Louisiana coming off the upset loss to Coastal Carolina (10), this one has the makings of a fun one. Vegas has UAB -1 at the time of this writing and it’s close enough to shift, but the GCR likes the Ragin’ Cajuns on the road 60.0%.
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The early afternoon games provide some fun matchups as well. At 2:30 (all times Eastern), FAU (25) will finally play a second game at Marshall (16). Both are undefeated and something has to give. Vegas likes Marshall -17 (not enough games played for the GCR to predict). Big 10 favorite Ohio St -26 kicks off hosting Nebraska at 12:00 while Coastal Carolina (10) puts its perfect season on the line against Ga Southern (36) – Vegas has Coastal -6 while the GCR has them 66.1% to win. But the game to watch is NC St (15) at UNC (9) who fell from the top spot with the upset loss at Florida St (38) last week. Will they respond? Vegas thinks so at UNC -15.5 and the GCR sees a little closer match – Tar Heels win 58.4%.
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The mid-afternoon games give us another great slate. Penn St (gotta be a contender for the Big 10) travels to Indiana (+6.5). Virginia Tech (4) travels to the not so friendly confines of Wake Forest (23) and should continue a great season: GCR has Tech 61.3% and Vegas has them -9.5. But the game to watch, and the Game of the Week, is from the Big 12: Iowa St (13) at Oklahoma St (2). The Cowboys are the only unbeaten team in the conference and are facing a really good squad. Vegas says they eke one out, at home, -3. The GCR likes the more southern State a little more 62.1%.
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The night games (13 of them) feature 8 in which someone is playing their maiden game. Michigan -3 at Minnesota is the closest expected Big 10 game and closes out week 1 for that conference along with Maryland at Northwestern -11. Virginia (32) at Miami FL (7) will be a good test – UVA coming off an upset loss to Wake Forest (23) and the Hurricanes taking care of Pittsburgh (53). Vegas like the ‘Canes -11.5 and the GCR concurs Miami 65.8%. But, the game to watch is Cincinnati (18) at SMU (21). The fight for supremacy in the American is on between the only 2 remaining undefeated squads. Vegas sees a close one with the Mustangs -2.5 at home while the Bearcats are a close favorite (56.6%) by the GCR. Either way, look for a one-score win by someone.
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With that, I’ll close with wishing you a wonderful and I hope your team wins (unless they are playing my team). Thanks for reading and you will find all 27 predicted games below. Looking forward to comments and questions while always being grateful for sharing with others, G
