Greetings and Happy Festivus oh great and wonderful football fans. It’s Christmas morning (granted just a few minutes after midnight) in Sydney and when the mates there wake up they are going to want to know all about this year’s Hawaii Bowl. I’ll do my best. The game started in 2002 and Hawaii automatically gets the nod for the Mountain West if they are bowl-eligible (unless they get a bid for a major bowl). That makes sense because the Rainbow Warriors have to make 6 or 7 trips to the mainland every year anyway. Gives the kids a break. Since the game is typically played Christmas Eve (unless that’s a Sunday) it gives the weary Warriors a restful holiday. This will be the 10th time Hawaii suited up going 4-4 so far. BYU will be making their first appearance in the game.
Before we get into that game, a quick review of yesterday’s game. Central Florida did indeed run all over Marshall in the pouring rain. Tampa was a soggy mess but the spirit of Gaspar (see previous post for reference) prevailed for the Knights who became the 5th American Conference team with 10+ wins (so far the sole possession of first place in that category). The win gives the GCR an 8-4 prediction record, 6-3 in the FBS.
Which brings us back to today’s game. Kick off is at 8:00 pm Eastern (or 3:00 pm Honolulu) time. BYU (53), of the independent group, was 7-5 with a 1-1 record against the top 25. That win was against Southern Cal (15) and kept them out of a tie with Utah (the Trojans won the tie-breaker the week after losing to BYU). Their worst loss was to 6-6 #95 Toledo (who was bowl-eligible, but there just weren’t enough spots). Overall their opponent’s were 85-66 and they played 9 teams (including Toledo) that were bowl eligible. The Cougar offense was average at 104 (100 means they score the same number of points that their opponents allow each game) and the defense is not a lot better with a 113. They are an average FBS team. Hawaii (58) has already played 14 games winning 9 of them. First, the NCAA rules allow an optional 13th game to anyone who plays a game in Hawaii. They also won the West Division of the Mountain West, but lost to Boise State in the championship. More on that in a moment. They played just one top 25 team (Air Force) and lost that game. Their best win was against Oregon State (31) but they did lose to Fresno State (144) in the latter half of the season and at home. 7 of their opponents are bowl eligible and their overall opponent’s record is 97-79. Their offense is better than BYU’s at 124, but they give up more points than average (playing in the Mountain West can do that) at 90.
The two teams played 3 common opponents – BYU was 1-2 and Hawaii was 1-3. San Diego State lost to the Warriors on the road by a field goal, but beat the Cougars at home by 10. Both teams lost to Washington (BYU at home by 26 and Hawaii on the road by 32). Here’s the big one: BYU beat Boise State at home by 3. Hawaii lost twice to Boise State, both times on that ugly blue field, by 24 and 21.
Cue the trumpets: it’s time for the prediction. BYU is favored by Vegas -2.0 and looking at the Boise State game, I can sort of see it. They also liked Southern Methodist over Florida Atlantic in a home game for FAU. The GCR sees this as a home game for Hawaii so let’s look at some more stats. BYU is 3-3 on the road and the Warriors are 6-2 at home. They win the 9th home game of the season by at least a touchdown – GCR has them at 59.0% to win.
That’s it for today – I’ll be back tomorrow night for this game’s recap and the predictions for Thursday’s games. Thanks and air your grievances now!!! G
