Happy Friday College Football Fans! The weekend is finally here and what a weekend it will be. First, a bit of happy news as the holidays of December are already making magic. I mentioned in my last post that one team would be left out of the bowl games simply due to 83 qualifiers for 82 positions. but the NCAA decided to fix that by creating a one-time only bowl – somewhere in Texas played sometime in December. That will not only allow all of the 6+win, .500+ teams to play, but also Hawaii 6-7 (122) to appear as well. They get precedent over 5-7 teams. More than likely they will be in the Hawaii Bowl (again). We should know all of the bowl games early next week.
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By the way, there are two games active right now. The Conference-USA championship of W Kentucky 8-4 (60) at UTSA 11-1 (17) is already 2/3 of the way through the first quarter and it is an offensive showcase so far. The Roadrunners are winning at home 14-10 with 4:59 in the quarter. Vegas likes W Kentucky -3.5, but the GCR thinks the Roadrunners will rebound from their first loss last week to win 78%. The second round of the FCS playoffs are also underway with Holy Cross 10-2 (107) of the Patriot League playing at Villanova 9-2 (111) representing the Colonial. With 11:20 to go in the second, the Wildcats just scored the first TD of the game and are up at home 7-0. Holy Cross should win this one 56%.
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I’ve listed all the games below and the table is very rainbow looking. Yellow indicates the GCR and Vegas don’t agree on the winner. Green indicates an FCS playoff game. Blue indicates a non-playoff, non-conference championship game. Southern Cal 4-7 (84) and California 4-7 (121) are playing a make-up game after being eliminated from bowl consideration last week – let’s call it the Silly California Bowl.
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Championship games include the C-USA game underway and the Pac12 matchup, in Vegas, between Oregon 10-2 (12) and Utah 9-3 (20) later tonight. 2 weeks ago, the Ducks lost 38-7 at the Utes and are hoping to make amends. Vegas thinks Utah wins -3.0, but the GCR thinks the Ducks turn it around on neutral ground 64%.
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Tomorrow at noon (all times Eastern) the FBS kicks off with the MAC: Kent St 7-5 (81) and N Illinois 8-4 (58) in Detroit. Vegas likes Kent St -3.5 while the GCR likes the Huskies 60%. Also playing are Baylor 10-2 (9) and Oklahoma St 11-1 (3). This one has playoff implications as the Cowboys could sneak in with a strong win, or any win and a Cincinnati or Michigan loss. Vegas thinks they will -6.0 and the GCR agrees 65%.
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The Hilltoppers kicked a field goal as time expired in the first to trail UTSA 14-13 after 1.
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In the afternoon, the Moutain West starts us off at 3:00 with Utah St 9-3 (49) traveling to San Diego St 11-1 (14). San Diego St is favored both by Vegas -6.0 and the GCR 72%. At 3:30 the Sun Belt championship kicks off when App St 10-2 (25) heads to Lafayette to take on Louisiana 11-1 (18). The Ragin’ Cajuns beat the Mountaineers October 12 at home 41-13 and the GCR doesn’t see much reason to suspect a difference – ULL 64%, but Vegas likes App St -3.0. Go figure. At 4:00 we have 2 major playoff-impacting games. First is the SEC Championship when Georgia 12-0 (1) faces Alabama 11-1 (2) in Atlanta. As you might expect, I watch a LOT of college football and I haven’t seen a more complete team than the Bulldogs this year. That said, they have struggled in the past when games really count, especially against the Crimson Elephants. Vegas thinks this is the year UGA -6.5 and the GCR agrees 67%. I think UGA makes the playoffs in any scenario in which they don’t lose by 25 points. Alabama will most likely be in Sugar Bowl if they lose unless Michigan, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma State all lose too. The other 4:00 game is of equal importance. For the first time since the 4-team playoff was created, a Group of 5 team has a legitimate shot at participating. Cincinnati 12-0 (7) is the only other FBS perfect team (Sam Houston is also undefeated in the FCS) and will face a tough opponent in Houston 11-1 (21). Houston’s only loss was against Texas Tech 6-6 (54) in week 1. Both of these teams are 8-0 in the conference. If the Bearcats win, I think they make the playoff unless Alabama, Oklahoma St, and Michigan all win and the Cowboys bury the Baylor Bears. If Houston wins, Cincinnati still gets the New Year’s Six G5 spot, unless Houston routs them and takes the spot. In the second highest Vegas line, Cincinnati is favored -10.5. The GCR agrees 65%.
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UTSA scored two touchdowns and W Kentucky missed a 53-yarder while I was typing that last paragraph to take a commanding 28-13 lead with 9:10 in the half. Villanova and Holy Cross are playing a defensive game with Nova holding a 7-0 lead with just 89 seconds to go in the half.
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The night games, both starting at 8:00, have the ACC Championship, in Charlotte, between Wake Forest 10-2 (11) and Pittsburgh 10-2 (19). I have to say that I’m really excited about this game. As you know, I love the underdogs, the ones who never get a shot, and the Demon Deacons fit that mold. Both of these teams were 7-1 in official conference games, but Pittsburgh is not really a surprise. Sure, preseason had both UNC 6-6 (59) and Miami FL 7-5 (37) highly ranked but both lost week 1. The Panthers have 3 more wins than Miami during the season and have been the lock for most of it. Wake was an underdog in most of its games because, well, they are Wake. This will be a very offensive minded game (Vegas has the over/under at 71). The team with the ball last may end up the victor. Vegas likes Pittsburgh -3.5, but the GCR sees Wake finishing the Cinderella season, but just at 55%. It should be a really fun game to watch. At the same time, the Big Ten division champs will travel to Indianapolis where Iowa 10-2 (15) will try to upend Michigan 11-1 (4) and stop the Wolverines from making the playoff. If Michigan wins, they are in. If they lose, Oklahoma St (assuming a win) takes their place or Notre Dame (if the Cowboys lose). Vegas thinks Michigan wins in a blowout -11.0 and the GCR supports the group from Ann Arbor 65%.
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Villanova scored another TD and are up 14-0 with 33 seconds to go in the half.
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As we think about the playoffs, another first (Cincinnati is one) could happen. Oklahoma St is the only 1 loss team in the Big 12, Michigan is the only one in the Big Ten, Georgia is perfect and Alabama has just 1-loss. The ACC and Pac-12 have a combined zero 1-loss teams and only 3 2-loss teams between them. Notre Dame 11-1 (5) could sneak in despite not being part of a conference except they just lost their head coach and the committee has said that is a factor. Oklahoma St loses, Michigan loses, and Georgia wins: in that scenario, Georgia is in, Cincinnati is in, if they win as well, maybe Notre Dame (but probably not), and a 2-loss team will have to be included. It’s never happened before. The precedent is fantastic for those who are ready for the playoff to expand. Perfection (or near perfection) in big time college football is proving harder every year. For those who are a bit cynical, the thing that I think will push a decision to expand faster is the absence of the “elite” of the playoff era: Ohio St, Clemson, Oklahoma, and possibly Alabama. The playoff era began, primarily, because not only 2 SEC teams played each other for the Natty, but 2 SEC West teams. Clearly the BCS was broken and had to be fixed. Enough cynicism.
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Utah jumped off to a quick 7-0 lead over Oregon with 7:11 in the first.
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In the FCS, there is one conference championship game in the only conference with divisions: the SWAC. Jackson St (head coach Deion Sanders) 10-1 (89) will host Prairie View 7-4 (162). Even though I don’t list lines for FCS games (because they usually aren’t posted until the day of the game), Vegas has Jackson St -8.0 and the GCR agrees 67%. The winner of this game will play South Carolina St 6-5 (178), champions of the MEAC, in the Celebration Bowl – the only bowl game played by the FCS.
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Utah is now up 14-0 with 2:52 to go in the first.
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All of the other FCS games are playoffs. The winners make the quarterfinals next week. Good luck to all.
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That’s it for today and be on the lookout for the post-championships, preannouncement post Sunday morning. Later in the week, we’ll review the bowl games and I’ll talk about how the post schedule changes in December. Here is all of the games this weekend. Enjoy and thanks for reading, G.
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