Greetings, oh great and wonderful fans, we are finally at a full week of college football. Last week’s 14 games were a great warmup that delivered what they should have. But now, it’s all in. 131 games over 5 days should keep us all pretty busy. Of the 261 Division I teams, only 13 aren’t playing: the entire Ivy League (Brown, Columbia, Cornell, Dartmouth, Harvard, Penn, Princeton, and Yale because they don’t start until Week 3 by design), and some teams that played in Week 0 and are taking this week off (Idaho St, Morehead St, Northwestern, and Northwestern), and newcomer to Division I Lindenwood who will kick off next week. At the bottom of this post, I list every game and game time (or game day of the week if not Saturday). The GCR isn’t yet active with nearly 95% of the teams 0-0, but there are some intriguing matchups for each time grouping. I’m not predicting games yet, but that should come soon with a significant add based on a suggestion by a reader.
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Thursday presents 6 FBS/FBS contests, 9 FCS/FBS “cupcakes”, 12 FCS/FCS matchups, and 5 FCS/Other games. Of those 32, there are 3 that stick out. First, West Virginia at Pittsburgh. Pitt is the reigning ACC champion and are the favorite to win the Atlantic again (to face Clemson? NC St? Other?). While this isn’t a conference game a non-conference loss to a team they should have beat (Bowling Green) last year diminished their accomplishment. Even with that expectation, the Panthers are only favored in Vegas -7.5 over the Mountaineers. They can win the division without this game, but… Staying in the ACC, I like the FCS VMI facing Wake Forest as an interesting game. Ok, Ok, the Demon Deacons won the Coastal last year, but their QB1, Sam Hartman who took them to an 11-win season, is out for the season. They are preseason ranked (preseason polls are a joke, seriously) because of their success last year, but how much of it was Hartman? They will probably win, but we should get an indication of just how 3-dimensional they are. Flipping to the Big Ten, Penn St who had a less than stellar year last year by PSU standards are heading to Indiana to take on Purdue who surprised a bunch of folks last year. I don’t think James Franklin is on the hot seat but a first game loss in a conference game when your team is in the same division as Michigan, Michigan St, and Ohio St is a pretty deep hole. Vegas has the Nittany Lions at -3.5 over the Boilermakers and it should be a great game to watch.
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On Friday we have a smaller slate with just 10 games (5 are FBS/FBS, 3 are FCS/FBS, and 2 are FCS/FCS), but there are, again, 3 that interest me. Staying in the Big Ten, it seems either Illinois, Indiana, or Purdue have a good year and since we just talked about Purdue’s game, the other two play each other this week. Illinois won in Week 0 over hapless Wyoming. Can they bring that momentum into this week in the Hoosiers first game. Somebody is getting off to a head start in the conference, but who? Vegas thinks Indiana -2.0. In a non-conference matchup, the Big 12’s TCU is heading to the Pac-12’s Colorado. Both teams are always a wild card with TCU throwing in a good season once in a while and the Buffalos starting hot and fading as the year moves on. The Pac 12 is in disarray while the Big 12, who looked done for after Oklahoma and Texas announced their departure, have turned it around and look like a survivor. I feel like Colorado (and Utah and pretty much all of the Pac 12) are auditioning for spots in other leagues. Another losing record in non-conference games will mean a quicker end to the storied conference. Speaking of the Big 12, though, Kansas once again opens with an FCS opponent, this time with the Ohio Valley’s Tennessee Tech. Not much story line here except that last year the Jayhawks beat South Dakota and Texas in a major upset. They need this win to avoid a 12-loss season.
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The Saturday early games (start time before 3:00 – all times Eastern), provides 5 FBS/FBS, 8 FCS/FBS, 6 FCS/FCS, and 3 FCS/Other games for our entertainment. It’s not a great slate but is a good warmup for the later games. A pair of North Carolina Power 5 teams are playing on the road at Group of 5 stadiums: UNC, who finally got past an understaffed Florida A&M team last week, at App St who won the most difficult Group of 5 division, the Sun Belt East, last year. I think this is a dangerous game and I expect it will be close. Vegas has UNC at just -1.5. If I were in Boone, I’d make a point to see this one because this has upset watch written all over it. If the Tar Heels wait until the 4th to start playing again, it will be too late over the pesky and traditionally good Mountaineer team. At the same time, NC St is playing on the other side of the state at East Carolina. The Pirates aren’t the team from Boone, but they tend to play those first week P5 opponents hard, especially in Greenville. NC St is an expected challenger to Clemson in the Coastal, but like Pitt, they have to play this game like a conference game, even though it won’t “count”. Vegas feels better about the Wolfpack at -11.5, but it is a potentially dangerous outing for them. The best FCS/FCS game of the week is Davidson at Jacksonville St. JAX got off to a 42-17 shortened win over Steph F Austin last week and will be looking to extend by hosting last year’s Pioneer League champion. There’s no line on this game yet, but I expect it will be a battle to the end.
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The mid-day games (3:00-6:00 starting slots) give us a ton of really good games out of the 12 FBS/FBS, 6 FCS/FBS, 8 FCS/FCS, and 2 FCS/Other matchups. I tried hard to get to 3 but couldn’t. I’m looking at 5 must watch games. First, last year’s only G5 team ever to make the playoffs, Cincinnati, invades last year’s SEC West positive surprise, Arkansas for what has to be a high-energy affair. Arkansas follows up this game with a home conference game against South Carolina and needs this win to build on last year’s success. Cincinnati lost a ton of players to the NFL but are always near the top of the American. This will be a signature win for one of these teams that could determine the course of the rest of the season. Vegas likes the Razorbacks at home -6.5. Staying in the American, Houston travels to the Alamo to play last year’s Cinderella, UTSA who won 12 games. Was that just a magical season or is something being built in Conference USA? This game will help determine that. Houston is favored -4.0 so it could go either way. Should be fun to watch. Staying with Group of 5, Middle Tennessee will be newly promoted James Madison’s first opponent as an FBS team. The Dukes were a dominate team in the FCS and had some big upsets against FBS opponents over the years, but how will they fare now that they are in the club. Being in that very competitive Sun Belt East division will challenge them. Vegas likes JMU -6.0 as they are expected to compete in this inaugural season. In a somewhat rare Pac12/SEC regular season matchup, we have Utah taking the long flight to the Swamp to take on Florida. While Georgia is clearly the favorite in the East, second place is up for grabs and, once again, while not a conference game, the Gators have to win this game to be taken seriously for that spot. Utah, as mentioned above, is auditioning for the Big 12 or the Big 10. Vegas likes Utah -3.0 in a tough environment. The co-game of the week is Oregon and Georgia in the “neutral” site of Mercedes Benz stadium in Atlanta, home of the SEC championship and just down the road from Athens. Oregon is auditioning for the Big 10 and Georgia is defending champion. It’s that simple. A loss hurts UGA more, certainly, but it comes back to last year’s losing record for the Pac12. They just can’t do that again. Signature wins have been few and far between. Vegas doesn’t give Oregon much of a chance with UGA -17.0.
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In the evening games (any games starting after 6:00), we get 15 FBS/FBS games, 12 FCS/FBS matchups, 7 FCS/FCS, and 4 FCS/Other. But there just aren’t that many that scream out. Sure, Memphis who beat Mississippi St last year at home will go for the sweep (MSST -16.0). I think the first of the two that are the most critical is Boise St at Oregon St. Last year the Mountain West was 5-0 against the Pac12. Boise St is often one of the better teams in that conference. Oregon St is usually at the bottom of the Pac12 North, so does the streak continue? While other Pac12 teams are auditioning for Power 5 conferences, I think the Beavers are trying to show they can be competitive in the MWC. Vegas likes ORST, but just a little bit at -2.5, not even home field advantage. The other co-game of the week is Notre Dame at Ohio St. Both are ranked in the top 5 in the preseason polls (preseason polls are a joke, seriously), and one of them won’t be there Tuesday. Both teams have aspirations of a playoff appearance. Notre Dame, more than likely, will need to be undefeated or the best 1-loss team (meaning the Big 10 and SEC champions both have 2 losses) to have a chance. Lose this game, and the goals have to chance to a New Year’s Six bowl if they win out (and are lucky). Win this game, run the table, and they get in. Ohio St is a preseason favorite to make the final four along with Alabama and/or Georgia and TBD, but a loss to the Irish at home puts a lot of pressure on the team. Win this game and they can afford a single loss, probably, as long as they win their division and conference. Lose this game and…, well no team with two losses has ever received an invitation. The Big Ten East looks to be a slugfest again this year (3 10-win teams last year), and any team will need that 1-loss cushion. What does a Vegas line of OHSU -17.0 say about preseason polls, huh?
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There are 3 post-Saturday bowls, and each has some intrigue. On Sunday, Florida St and LSU meet up in New Orleans in a matchup of, well, 2 teams with historically solid programs coming off losing seasons. Florida St demolished FCS Duquesne last week, but will be facing a more formidable foe, or at least what should be a more formidable foe. Both teams need this win to kickstart their seasons as they try to climb back into their respective conference relevance. Vegas isn’t sold on that blowout win for the Seminoles picking LSU -3.0. A neutral site game at the Orange Bowl between SWAC members Florida A&M (who lost to UNC after putting up a valiant short-handed effort last week) and 2021 SWAC champion Jackson St will be interesting. Will FLAM be able to recover from the exhausting game last week? Will they have more players this week? How is Jackson St managing with the current flooding and no-water crisis? How are they getting meaningful reps in? This is a conference game so there’s no just brushing these things off. The winner has a huge advantage to start the season. And, finally, in a Monday night game at Mercedes Benz in the ATL again, we have Clemson and Georgia Tech. To be honest, I don’t expect this game to be close or interesting other than it’s the 131st of the weekend. Clemson is favored -22.0 and the game is more important, in the scheme of things, to them. The Yellow Jackets haven’t been relevant in a while, but a win here would disrupt the ACC – both divisions. It would be a small miracle, but weirder things have happened.
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Here is every game. The color/highlight code is
CLEAR=FBS/FBS game
BOLD/ITALIC/UNDERLINE=neutral site
BLUE=FCS/FBS game
ORANGE=FCS/FCS game
MAROON=FCS/Other game
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That’s it for this episode. Have a great and safe holiday weekend. Get your exercise in before the games so you can be a couch potato along with me. Thanks as always for reading and I’ll see you soon, G
