Welcome to the eve of College Football 2023!! As your host for the evening, I can say there is a ton of excitement out there because it’s FINALLY here!!!! I know there are just 10 games, but there are 10 games! Before we get to the games, let’s go over a few reminders.
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The GCR has no preset bias that team A is good or team B is bad. Therefore, at this point in time, all 261 teams at 0-0 are either tied for first or last, depending on your preference. After week 1’s full slate of games, the GCR will have its first ranking (or G’s Evaluation). The ranking is based on 2 parts: the Performance Score and the Strength of Schedule Score (SOS). Multiple factors go into these such as success of the opponent (more on that in a moment), score of the game, location of the game, opponent league, etc. The score of the game or point differential is a diminishing returns formula so running up the score does not add a whole bunch. The premise is the first point that a team wins by is the most important as it dictates the win. The second, third, fourth, … points add a bit but slightly less than the first one. Around 21 points, it becomes moot, except for an extreme decimal place tie-breaker. The location assumes that, in general, away games are more difficult than neutral site games which are more difficult than home games. The opponent league part is a bonus/penalty factor for a team playing outside of its own league. For example, if a Power 5 (ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac 12, SEC, Notre Dame) play each other, there is no bonus or penalty. But if a Power 5 team plays a Group of 5 (American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt, or the other independents), they receive a penalty for “downsizing.” If they lose the game, the penalty is multiplied. On the other side, that G5 team would get a bonus for playing “up” and that would be multiplied with a win. Now, my rant for the day. The GCR does not provide a preseason top 25 (since all teams are tied for #1) and our official stance on such a foolish thing is that it is silly. There is an AP 25 team who will be a disappointment this year. We don’t know who it is yet, but there is always at least one. A team that is in the preseason ranking that isn’t ranked (or sometimes doesn’t even earn a bowl berth) by season’s end. It would just be frivolity except that someone is going to beat an AP Top 25 team in week 1, for the discussion, let’s say #17 (and no, I don’t even know who is #17 right now because I simply don’t care). A currently unranked team (let’s say team A) beats/upsets #17 in week 0 or 1 and the rest of the season they will have “credit” for beating a Top 25 team. Even if #17 goes 2-10 on the season, the pundits will still talk about the big win early in the season. Yes, in a 12-game season, they are all big wins, but that’s not the point. In the GCR, a team’s SOS is dynamic. Say team A beats #17 in week 1. They will get credit for beating an 0-1 team that week. If #17, wins out after and is 11-1, team A gets credit for beating an 11-1 team at the end of the regular season. If #17 goes 2-10, team A gets credit for beating a 2-10 team at the end of the regular season. Hope that made sense.
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After week 1 (or maybe 2 depending on the regression), the GCR will be able to pick game winners and which teams will cover the spread (for games that have a spread at the time of the prediction). Obviously, these predictions are for entertainment purposes only. I’ll keep a running tab on success rates in both predictions.
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Now let’s pick 3 of the FBS games and one FCS game that I think are the hottest to watch. First, in the maiden game of the season, Navy (American) will kickoff against Notre Dame (P5 Independent) in Ireland at 2:30 (all times Eastern). Last year, the Irish were a little disappointed with a 9-4 season and look to impact the Playoffs with games against Clemson, Southern Cal, and Ohio St this season. The Midshipmen and the triple option are always a challenge to any team, and they have shown upset potential in the past. Vegas has the Irish -20.5 in the second largest point spread tomorrow (Southern Cal -31.0 over San Jose St).
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The second game which should kick off around the end of the previous game at 5:30, is a conference game for Conference USA when UTEP who suffered a less than expected season last year face one of our FCS to Group of 5 promotees when they invade Jacksonville St. The Gamecocks were an impressive 9-2 in their final FCS season and, while not eligible to win the conference or play in a bowl game, hope to wreak havoc at their new level. By the way, the last game of the night, at 9:00 is the other conference game, also Conference USA when LA Tech hosts FIU. Back to the game to watch, Vegas has the Miners at -1.0 on the road.
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I think the best game of the week, taking into consideration not only the potential closeness of the final score, but also the overall historical quality of the teams, with a 7:00 kickoff, the young men of Ohio (MAC) will travel west to San Diego St (Mountain West). The Bobcats were in the MAC title game last year and the Aztecs always threaten in the MWC. In Power 5 conferences, if a team wins 6 games, they assume a bowl game is on the way. It’s not that way in the Group of 5. If there are too many qualifiers, you might get bumped. So every win is critical to ensuring the bowl money, and more importantly, the extra days of practice. It’s not a conference game, but it is a very important game to both teams. Vegas likes San Diego St at home -2.5.
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In the FCS, we have a rematch of the 2021 Celebration Bowl when the Deion-less Jackson St Tigers take on the South Carolina St Bulldogs in Atlanta. The rematch kicks off at 7:30. Two seasons ago, the Tigers were looking for that dream perfect season when they, by way of winning the SWAC championship, took on the MEAC champion Bulldogs who were a mere 6-5. In a huge upset, SC St won and ended the hopes. The Tigers had a near repeat season last year only to lose the Celebration Bowl, in OT, to NC Central, while the Bulldogs had an off year, winning just 3 times. I’m curious to see how good Jackson St is with a new head coach not named Deion Sanders and if the Bulldogs can take advantage. There is no Vegas line at the time of this typing, which is typical for FCS games.
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I know this table is a little overkill for a 10-game slate, but I’ll use it all season, so I might as well start now. Organized by League (Power 5, then Group of 5, then FCS each alphabetically), then by time of game. For non-conference games, the game will be listed at the first opportunity, but referenced in their own conference later. Notre Dame is considered for this table to be in the FBS Independents. Hope that makes sense too. NP indicates no prediction and NL indicates no Vegas line at time of publishing.
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| Time | Away | Conf (Rec) | Home | Conf (Rec) | Vegas | GCR | To Cover |
| Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) | Power 5 | ||||||
| none | |||||||
| Big 12 (B12) | Power 5 | ||||||
| none | |||||||
| Big Ten (B10) | Power 5 | ||||||
| none | |||||||
| Pac 12 (P12) | Power 5 | ||||||
| 8:00 | San Jose St (0-0/1) | MWC (0-0) | Southern Cal (0-0/1) | P12 (0-0) | SCAL -31.0 | NP | NP |
| Southeastern Conference (SEC) | Power 5 | ||||||
| 7:30 | Hawaii (0-0/1) | MWC (0-0) | Vanderbilt (0-0/1) | SEC (0-0) | VAND -17.5 | NP | NP |
| American Athletic Conference (AAC) | Group of 5 | ||||||
| 2:30 | Navy (Neutral) (0-0/1) | AAC (0-0) | Notre Dame (Neutral) (0-0/1) | IND (0-0) | ND -20.5 | NP | NP |
| Conference USA (USA) | Group of 5 | ||||||
| 5:30 | UTEP (0-0/1) | USA (0-0) | Jacksonville St (0-0/1) | USA (0-0) | UTEP -1.0 | NP | NP |
| 9:00 | FIU (0-0/1) | USA (0-0) | LA Tech (0-0/1) | USA (0-0) | LATC -12.5 | NP | NP |
| 7:00 | UMASS (0-0/1) | IND (0-0) | New Mexico St (0-0/1) | USA (0-0) | NMST -7.0 | NP | NP |
| FBS Independents (IND) | G5 (Notre Dame-P5) | ||||||
| OOC | Notre Dame (Navy-AAC), UMASS (New Mexico St-USA) | ||||||
| Mid-American Conference (MAC) | Group of 5 | ||||||
| 7:00 | Ohio (0-0/1) | MAC (0-0) | San Diego St (0-0/1) | MWC (0-0) | SDST -2.5 | NP | NP |
| Mountain West Conference (MWC) | Group of 5 | ||||||
| OOC | San Diego St (Ohio-MAC), Hawaii (Vanderbilt-SEC), San Jose St (Southern Cal-P12) | ||||||
| Sun Belt Conference (SUN) | Group of 5 | ||||||
| none | |||||||
| Big Sky (SKY) | FCS | ||||||
| none | |||||||
| Big South/Ohio Valley Conference (SOV) | FCS | ||||||
| none | |||||||
| Colonial Athletic Conference (CAA) | FCS | ||||||
| 7:00 | Fordham (0-0/1) | PAT (0-0) | Albany (0-0/1) | CAA (0-0) | NL | NP | NP |
| FCS Independents (FCI) | FCS | ||||||
| none | |||||||
| Ivy League (IVY) | FCS | ||||||
| none | |||||||
| Mideastern American Conference (MEAC) | FCS | ||||||
| 7:30 | Jackson St (Neutral) (0-0/1) | SWAC (0-0) | South Carolina St (0-0/1) | MEAC (0-0) | NL | NP | NP |
| Missouri Valley Conference (MVFC) | FCS | ||||||
| none | |||||||
| Northeast Conference (NEC) | FCS | ||||||
| none | |||||||
| Patriot League (PAT) | FCS | ||||||
| OOC | Fordham (Albany-CAA) | ||||||
| Pioneer League (PFL) | FCS | ||||||
| none | |||||||
| Southern Conference (SoCon) | FCS | ||||||
| 3:30 | N Alabama (0-0/1) | UAC (0-0) | Mercer (0-0/1) | SoCon (0-0) | NL | NP | NP |
| Southland Conference (SLC) | FCS | ||||||
| none | |||||||
| Southwest Athletic Conference (SWAC) | FCS | ||||||
| OOC | Jackson St (South Carolina St-MEAC) | ||||||
| United Athletic Conference (UAC) | FCS | ||||||
| OOC | N Alabama (Mercer-SoCon) |
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That’s it for today. That table will be more impressive when there are over 130 games listed next week. If you want to see this online (vs email or social media) or if you just want to share a link, check out bit.ly/2019GCR
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Thanks for reading and commenting. And a tremendous amount of gratitude for sharing with others, G.
