Happy Thursday oh great and wonderful college football fans! There are a couple of games already started and I’ll try to keep you updated as we go through this post. Right now, Coastal Carolina (3-0/34) is winning at Georgia St (0-3/148) 14-0 on two 50+yard pass plays with 10:44 to go in the 1st. Vegas has CCAR -2.5 and the GCR has CCAR 92%. West Virginia (1-2/85) is playing Virginia Tech (2-1/64) in Hokieland. Scoreless with 7:47 to go in the 1st. Vegas likes WVU -2.0, but in and upset call, the GCR likes VT 85%. Later tonight (8:30 – all times Eastern), Chattanooga (3-0/114) is playing a money game at Illinois (2-1/33). Vegas has ILL -21.0 while the GCR has ILL 83%.
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During the summer, Dixie St changed its name to Utah Tech. Yesterday, Houston Baptist changed its name, effective immediately, to Houston Christian. Since I’ve been doing the GCR, even before it was the GCR, there haven’t been any university name changes, but there you go. Twice in one year.
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On another note, I’m going to Starkville this weekend to see Bowling Green (1-2/96) take on Mississippi St (2-1/36) and will take some pics. I’ve got some from last year taken by John L and some from last week taken by Kevin L. I’m planning to do a game shot post next week, so if you are in person this weekend, send me a pic.
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There are some games on Friday this week and the one that sticks out is Virginia (2-1/65) at Syracuse (3-0/15). This cross-division matchup in the ACC is critical for both teams who are trying to get a good start. Vegas has SYR -10.0 and the GCR calculated not that close – SYR 93%.
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West Virginia took the first lead 3-0 with 3:19 in the 1st. Georgia St is on the board 14-7 CCAR 2:20 in the 1st.
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Saturday’s early games have a trio of enticing and meaningful ones – all at noon. Last year, Duke, Vanderbilt, and Kansas combined to go 7-29. This year they are 9-1. Vandy is playing Alabama so will fall to 3-2, more than likely, but in a game of the week candidate Duke (3-0/17) and Kansas (3-0/24) are facing each other in (one of) the state(s) of corn. Anybody else think this game was scheduled so that one of them would have a Power 5 win? One of these teams will start out 4-0! Vegas has KAN -7.0, but in the second upset call of the week, Duke pulls out the road win 60%. In another ACC matchup, Clemson (3-0/14) travels to Wake Forest (3-0/16). Last year the Tigers won this battle but lost the division to the Deacons. The GCR sees these teams as really close and is predicting a repeat victory for CLEM, but at just 67%. Vegas thinks it will be a fight as well, CLEM -7.5. Moving to the Big Ten, Maryland (3-0/18) will have a tough road test at Michigan (3-0/4). The GCR sees MICH as the better team at 86% and Vegas concurs -17.0, but the winner has a big leg up in a tough Big Ten East.
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Virginia Tech has the lead 7-3 with 11:27 in the 2nd while Coastal is taking control 24-7 with 9:17 in the 2nd.
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The midday games give us our FCS game of the week when Missouri St (2-1/158) who had a halftime lead at Arkansas last week hosts South Dakota St (2-1/160) at 3:00. Both of these teams are in the top 5 in the AP FCS poll and the GCR has them 2nd and 3rd (behind FCS top 5 and reigning champion North Dakota St) in the very strong Missouri Valley Conference. But someone has to win and the GCR picks SDKS to pick up the road victory 56%. In the FBS at 3:30 we have Florida (2-1/45) at Tennessee (3-0/5). Both of these teams were outside chances to challenge Georgia before the season started and Tennessee looks like they might have something. A loss to long-time rival Gatorbites will put a kibosh on the expectations, but Florida is already in must win territory if they want to be relevant in the East. I like this game because I think the emotion of the players will make a difference. Vegas has TENN -10.5, but the GCR, having the Volunteers at number 5, sees a 92% likelihood of a TENN victory. Switching to the Big Ten, also at 3:30, we have Minnesota (3-0/7), whose opponents haven’t won a game yet invading Michigan St (2-1/40) fresh off a loss to Washington. Someone asked me last week who I thought, not the GCR, would be in the playoffs this year, and occasionally I get the same question about a game. If I didn’t know the Vegas spread (MINN -3.0) or the GCR (MINN 52%), I think I would have picked the Spartans just because the Gophers haven’t played anybody yet. But this post is not about my opinions, so Go Gophers! At 4:00 we head west to the game of the week when Washington St (3-0/28) hosts Oregon (2-1/43). In the divisionless Pac 12, each game is critical. Let’s play what if. Oregon wins and we only have 3 perfect teams left, the winner of the Oregon St/Southern Cal game, Washington if they beat Stanford, and UCLA is they beat Colorado). In week 4. If the best team in the Pac 12 has a legitimate shot at the Playoffs, it has to be undefeated and has to beat teams with good records. Parity is not our friend in this case. Vegas thinks the Ducks -6.5, but in upset #3, WAST 62%.
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Ok, with 1:13 to half Virginia Tech has a slim lead 7-6. Coastal is holding a 27-17 lead at the half. Illinois is up 10-0 over Chattanooga with 2:39 in the 1st.
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Oddly, we head back easterly for our final 3 games to watch this week. At 7:00 defensive Iowa (2-1/35) travels to New Jersey to take on Rutgers (3-0/22), another member of the formidable Big Ten East. Iowa finally put double digits on the board last week, but can Rutgers score a couple of times? In a low scoring game, Vegas has Iowa -7.5, but in upset number 4, Rutgers surprises 58%. Also, at 7:00, in the only neutral site game Arkansas (3-0/29) and Texas A&M (2-1/49) kickoff. Just like the Florida/Tennessee game, these two were considered preseason possibles to challenge Alabama. A&M is fighting, now, to make people forget the App St game. Arkansas had more of a game against a really good (FCS) Missouri St last week and needs to show dominance if they want to stay in the discussion. In upset number 5, Vegas has A&M -2.0 and the GCR has the Razorbacks 65%. In our final game to watch we head once again to the Big Ten. At 7:30 Wisconsin (2-1/41) heads to Columbus to play Ohio St (3-0/10) in the opening conference game for both. Expectations are as high as ever for the Buckeyes. Vegas doesn’t see the Badgers as a problem OHST -19.0 and the GCR is almost spot on in agreement 84%.
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West Virginia took the lead just before the half, 13-7. The other two haven’t changed score. This weekend is a big one as many teams are playing their first conference games. I know, I know each game matters, and that’s true to some extent, but conference games just mean more. Have a great football weekend, and I’ll see you Sunday for G’s Evaluation aka the GCR Rankings. Here are all the games on the docket this week. Note the extra columns show two numbers. The first is the winning percentage of each team’s opponents so far and the second is the SOS ranking.
| Time | Away | Opp Rec | Home | Opp Rec | Vegas | GCR |
| THU | West Virginia (1-2/85) | 778/11 | Virginia Tech (2-1/64) | 222/134 | WVU -2.0 | VT 85% |
| THU | Coastal Carolina (3-0/34) | 222/131 | Georgia St (0-3/148) | 500/84 | CCAR -2.5 | CCAR 94% |
| THU | Chattanooga (3-0/114) | 111/253 | Illinois (2-1/33) | 800/2 | Ill -21.0 | ILL 83% |
| FRI | Virginia (2-1/65) | 556/52 | Syracuse (3-0/15) | 300/114 | SYR -10.0 | SYR 93% |
| FRI | Nevada (2-2/116) | 462/100 | Air Force (2-1/75) | 300/115 | AF -24.0 | AF 75% |
| FRI | Boise St (2-1/53) | 667/28 | UTEP (1-3/132) | 500/53 | BOST -16.0 | BOST 75% |
| 12:00 | Kent St (1-2/95) | 667/15 | Georgia (3-0/1) | 556/55 | UGA -45.0 | UGA 99% |
| 12:00 | Maryland (3-0/18) | 300/112 | Michigan (3-0/4) | 182/130 | MICH -17.0 | MICH 86% |
| 12:00 | Clemson (3-0/14) | 444/96 | Wake Forest (3-0/16) | 600/21 | CLEM -7.5 | CLEM 67% |
| 12:00 | C Michigan (1-2/120) | 556/48 | Penn St (3-0/9) | 444/57 | PSU -28.0 | PSU 99% |
| 12:00 | Baylor (2-1/50) | 333/106 | Iowa St (3-0/8) | 556/50 | IAST -2.5 | IAST 63% |
| 12:00 | Rhode Island (2-1/165) | 375/224 | Pittsburgh (2-1/48) | 556/59 | NL | PITT 87% |
| 12:00 | Missouri (2-1/66) | 556/66 | Auburn (2-1/52) | 750/24 | AUB -7.0 | AUB 55% |
| 12:00 | Bowling Green (1-2/96) | 778/25 | Mississippi St (2-1/36) | 667/17 | MSST -30.0 | MSST 89% |
| 12:00 | TCU (2-0/25) | 333/128 | SMU (2-1/54) | 500/49 | TCU -2.0 | SMU 55% |
| 12:00 | Duke (3-0/17) | 222/120 | Kansas (3-0/24) | 333/119 | KAN -7.0 | DUKE 60% |
| 12:00 | South Florida (1-2/136) | 500/83 | Louisville (1-2/46) | 889/1 | LOU -14.5 | LOU 58% |
| 12:00 | Buffalo (0-3/89) | 1000/9 | E Michigan (2-1/91) | 556/92 | EMI -6.0 | EMI 76% |
| 12:00 | Furman (2-1/155) | 667/135 | Charleston Southern (0-3/194) | 778/139 | NL | FUR 60% |
| 12:00 | E Tennessee St (1-2/256) | 500/214 | Robert Morris (0-2/242) | 500/212 | NL | ETSU 55% |
| 12:30 | Harvard (1-0/151) | 333/224 | Brown (1-0/153) | 000/259 | NL | NP |
| 12:30 | Columbia (1-0/125) | 000/259 | Georgetown (1-2/246) | 250/240 | NL | NP |
| 1:00 | Lafayette (1-2/241) | 556/211 | Penn (1-0/147) | 333/254 | NL | NP |
| 1:00 | Morehead St (1-2/221) | 667/188 | Stetson (2-1/186) | 1000/182 | NL | STET 57% |
| 1:00 | San Diego (1-2/261) | 333/233 | Valparaiso (1-2/250) | 750/194 | NL | VAL 55% |
| 1:00 | Holy Cross (3-0/118) | 143/249 | Colgate (1-2/248) | 333/229 | NL | HC 69% |
| 1:00 | Bryant (0-3/249) | 667/226 | Long Island (0-3/224) | 556/179 | NL | LIU 55% |
| 2:00 | UCLA (3-0/21) | 556/81 | Colorado (0-3/80) | 875/4 | UCLA -21.5 | UCLA 98% |
| 2:00 | UMASS (1-2/122) | 625/47 | Temple (1-2/94) | 778/14 | TEM -9.5 | TEM 56% |
| 2:00 | Fordham (3-0/134) | 111/252 | Ohio (1-2/76) | 800/6 | NL | OHIO 63% |
| 2:00 | Yale (0-1/219) | 1000/172 | Cornell (1-0/149) | 333/255 | NL | NP |
| 2:00 | Dartmouth (1-0/144) | 333/250 | Sacred Heart (1-2/260) | 222/245 | NL | NP |
| 2:00 | St Francis (1-2/240) | 333/234 | Norfolk St (0-3/199) | 875/147 | NL | STFR 55% |
| 2:00 | North Dakota St (2-1/156) | 222/219 | South Dakota (1-2/198) | 667/151 | NL | NDST 70% |
| 2:00 | Marist (0-2/257) | 500/251 | Drake (0-3/247) | 500/221 | NL | DRAK 55% |
| 2:00 | Stony Brook (0-2/243) | 500/213 | Richmond (2/1/165) | 444/178 | NL | RICH 61% |
| 2:00 | Grambling (1-2/220) | 444/210 | Bethune Cookman (0-2/210) | 600/161 | NL | GRAM 55% |
| 2:00 | Mississippi Valley (0-3/217) | 714/169 | Jackson St (3-0/104) | 222/235 | NL | JACK 95% |
| 2:00 | Lincoln CA (NA) | NR | St Thomas (1-1/216) | 667/220 | NL | NP |
| 2:00 | Merrimack (1-2/230) | 1000/165 | Delaware St (2-1/173) | 1000/149 | NL | DEST 59% |
| 3:00 | Idaho St (0-3/236) | 444/199 | N Colorado (1-2/214) | 444/170 | NL | NCOL 57% |
| 3:00 | South Dakota St (2-1/160) | 556/156 | Missouri St (2-1/158) | 556/140 | NL | SDKS 56% |
| 3:00 | North Dakota (2-1/181) | 200/243 | S Illinois (1-2/200) | 667/168 | NL | NDAK 57% |
| 3:00 | W Carolina (2-1/168) | 222/231 | Samford (2-1/169) | 500/146 | NL | WCAR 56% |
| 3:00 | Lehigh (1-2/254) | 556/222 | Princeton (1-0/137) | 667/207 | NL | NP |
| 3:00 | C Arkansas (1-2/195) | 556/143 | SEMO (2-1/166) | 444/150 | NL | CARK 59% |
| 3:30 | Florida (2-1/45) | 667/18 | Tennessee (3-0/5) | 444/80 | TENN -10.5 | TENN 92% |
| 3:30 | Texas (2-1/42) | 556/45 | Texas Tech (2-1/51) | 444/54 | TEX -7.0 | TEX 61% |
| 3:30 | Middle Tennessee (2-1/90) | 250/122 | Miami FL (2-1/47) | 375/101 | MIAF -25.5 | MIAF 70% |
| 3:30 | Notre Dame (1-2/77) | 778/10 | UNC (3-0/31) | 333/107 | UNC -1.5 | UNC 55% |
| 3:30 | Minnesota (3-0/7) | 000/258 | Michigan St (2-1/40) | 556/38 | MINN -3.0 | MINN 52% |
| 3:30 | Indiana (3-0/30) | 556/61 | Cincinnati (2-1/56) | 500/56 | CIN -16.5 | IND 54% |
| 3:30 | James Madison (2-0/32) | 333/124 | App St (2-1/59) | 667/35 | APST -7.0 | JMU 52% |
| 3:30 | Toledo (2-1/81) | 444/90 | San Diego St (1-2/145) | 444/93 | TOL -3.0 | TOL 72% |
| 3:30 | FIU (1-1/157) | 167/159 | W Kentucky (2-1/58) | 636/42 | WKY -31.0 | WKY 75% |
| 3:30 | North Texas (2-2/119) | 462/102 | Memphis (2-1/86) | 375/111 | MEM -12.5 | MEM 69% |
| 3:30 | Texas Southern (1-2/237) | 400/198 | UTSA (1-2/142) | 444/98 | NL | UTSA 60% |
| 3:30 | Elon (2-1/163) | 400/157 | William & Mary (3-0/110) | 300/228 | NL | W&M 68% |
| 3:30 | Monmouth (1-2/233) | 667/208 | Villanova (2-1/172) | 222/238 | NL | VILL 60% |
| 3:30 | C Connecticut (0-3/255) | 300/241 | Albany (0-3/207) | 778/153 | NL | ALB 55% |
| 4:00 | Oregon (2-1/43) | 750/16 | Washington St (3-0/28) | 333/110 | ORE -6.5 | WAST 62% |
| 4:00 | Tulsa (2-1/74) | 636/65 | Mississippi (3-0/3) | 333/117 | MISS -21.5 | MISS 99% |
| 4:00 | Georgia Tech (1-2/75) | 889/5 | UCF (2-1/71) | 444/109 | UCF -20.5 | UCF 81% |
| 4:00 | Sacramento St (2-0/135) | 167/248 | Colorado St (0-3/88) | 889/8 | NL | COST 64% |
| 4:00 | Jacksonville St (3-1/150) | 417/176 | Nicholls (0-3/225) | 556/180 | NL | JAX 62% |
| 4:00 | Montana St (2-1/159) | 444/154 | E Washington (1-1/190) | 333/183 | NL | MTST 58% |
| 4:00 | Idaho (1-2/179) | 667/125 | N Arizona (1-2/226) | 444/216 | NL | ID 56% |
| 4:00 | Portland St (0-2/184) | 800/126 | Montana (3-0/105) | 222/242 | NL | MONT 74% |
| 4:00 | E Kentucky (2-1/162) | 333/191 | Austin Peay (3-1/146) | 250/256 | NL | AP 60% |
| 4:00 | Lynchburg (NA) | NR | NC Central (3-0/126) | 333/239 | NL | NP |
| 4:00 | New Hampshire (2-1/178) | 444/209 | Towson (2-1/185) | 222/247 | NL | NH 55% |
| 4:00 | N Iowa (0-3/215) | 750/167 | W Illinois (0-3/193) | 667/138 | NL | WILL 55% |
| 4:30 | Lamar (0-3/235) | 556/195 | Northwestern St (0-3/238) | 556/205 | NL | NWST 55% |
| 5:00 | E Illiinois (0-3/239) | 667/206 | Murray St (0-3/208) | 600/155 | NL | MURR 55% |
| 5:30 | Arizona (2-1/68) | 556/82 | California (2-1/63) | 444/94 | CAL -3.0 | CAL 60% |
| 6:00 | Akron (1-2/99) | 667/23 | Liberty (2-1/55) | 667/34 | LIB -26.5 | LIB 79% |
| 6:00 | Navy (0-2/152) | 833/88 | East Carolina (2-1/62) | 556/69 | ECAR -16.5 | ECAR 84% |
| 6:00 | Ball St (1-2/138) | 444/85 | Ga Southern (2-1/82) | 400/113 | GASO -9.5 | GASO 78% |
| 6:00 | Arkansas St (1-2/100) | 667/29 | Old Dominion (1-2/109) | 667/43 | OD -5.0 | OD 56% |
| 6:00 | Rice (2-1/69) | 556/44 | Houston (1-2/101) | 667/36 | HOU -17.5 | RICE 69% |
| 6:00 | Wofford (0-3/206) | 778/152 | Kennesaw St (0-2/209) | 667/158 | NL | KNST 55% |
| 6:00 | Mercer (2-1/161) | 444/171 | Gardner Webb (1-2/191) | 833/137 | NL | MERC 59% |
| 6:00 | Alabama A&M (0-3/222) | 600/174 | Florida A&M (1-2/183) | 1000/183 | NL | FLAM 56% |
| 6:00 | Prairie View (1-2/244) | 667/215 | Alabama St (2-1/167) | 571/142 | NL | ALST 59% |
| 6:00 | Hampton (3-0/127) | 143/246 | Delaware (3-0/103) | 500/187 | NL | DEL 60% |
| 7:00 | N Illinois (1-2/130) | 500/63 | Kentucky (3-0/11) | 556/68 | UK -26.5 | UK 99% |
| 7:00 | Arkansas (3-0/29) – N | 556/79 | Texas A&M (2-1/49) – N | 556/70 | TAM -2.0 | ARK 65% |
| 7:00 | Iowa (2-1/35) | 700/20 | Rutgers (3-0/22) | 222/132 | IOWA -7.5 | RUT 58% |
| 7:00 | Southern Miss (1-2/141) | 444/95 | Tulane (3-0/27) | 444/103 | TULN -12.5 | TULN 75% |
| 7:00 | UNLV (2-1/79) | 400/108 | Utah St (1-2/115) | 700/115 | UNLV -3.0 | UNLV 75% |
| 7:00 | Houston Christian (1-1/192) | 600/218 | Texas St (1-2/140) | 556/87 | NL | TXST 57% |
| 7:00 | Marshall (2-1/84) | 222/129 | Troy (1-2/106) | 556/39 | MARS -3.0 | MARS 74% |
| 7:00 | LA Tech (1-2/97) | 667/22 | South Alabama (2-1/61) | 444/72 | SALA -13.0 | SALA 80% |
| 7:00 | Tarleton (2-1/175) | 400/256 | N Alabama (1-2/258) | 667/230 | NL | TARL 59% |
| 7:00 | Lindenwood (2-0/133) | 500/223 | Tennessee Martin (1-2/218) | 444/193 | NL | LIN 65% |
| 7:00 | Incarnate Word (3-0/112) | 400/192 | SELA (1-2/204) | 400/177 | NL | IW 69% |
| 7:00 | Warner (NA) | NR | Steph F Austin (1-2/234) | 500/196 | NL | NP |
| 7:00 | Davidson (2-1/174) | 750/184 | Presbyterian (1-2/232) | 714/202 | NL | DAV 58% |
| 7:00 | Ark Pine Bluff (2-1/154) | 1000/121 | Alcorn St (1-2/203) | 444/163 | NL | APB 58% |
| 7:00 | South Carolina St (1-1/188) | 400/201 | NC A&T (0-3/187) | 889/133 | NL | SCST 57% |
| 7:00 | North American (NA) | NR | TAM Commerce (1-2/259) | 333/232 | NL | NP |
| 7:30 | Vanderbilt (3-1/38) | 538/58 | Alabama (3-0/2) | 444/76 | ALA -40.5 | ALA 96% |
| 7:30 | Wisconsin (2-1/41) | 500/78 | Ohio St (3-0/10) | 444/91 | OHSU -19.0 | OHSU 84% |
| 7:30 | UCONN (1-3/123) | 583/40 | NC St (3-0/13) | 444/71 | NCST -38.5 | NCST 99% |
| 7:30 | New Mexico (2-1/87) | 300/123 | LSU (2-1/37) | 667/19 | LSU -31.5 | LSU 67% |
| 7:30 | Miami OH (1-2/107) | 625/32 | Northwestern (1-2/113) | 500/51 | NW -7.5 | NW 57% |
| 7:30 | Charlotte (1-3/143) | 615/74 | South Carolina (1-2/73) | 667/7 | SCAR -22.5 | SCAR 60% |
| 7:30 | FAU (2-2/121) | 385/116 | Purdue (1-2/60) | 778/3 | PUR -17.5 | PUR 61% |
| 8:00 | Kansas St (2-1/39) | 667/26 | Oklahoma (3-0/20) | 444/97 | OKLA -12.5 | OKLA 74% |
| 8:00 | Hawaii (1-3/117) | 643/30 | New Mexico St (0-4/131) | 571/46 | NMST -4.5 | HAW 54% |
| 8:00 | Boston College (1-2/102) | 556/41 | Florida St (3-0/23) | 400/86 | FSU -16.5 | FSU 92% |
| 8:00 | Louisiana (2-1/78) | 556/89 | ULM (1-2/108) | 556/33 | ULL – 9.0 | ULL 75% |
| 8:00 | W New Mexico (NA) | NR | Abilene Christian (2-1/171) | 333/197 | NL | NP |
| 8:00 | Mississippi College (NA) | NR | McNeese (0-3/213) | 556/166 | NL | NP |
| 8:00 | Utah Tech (1-2/231) | 1000/173 | S Utah (2-1/176) | 375/204 | NL | SUT 57% |
| 9:30 | Southern Cal (3-0/12) | 500/77 | Oregon St (3-0/26) | 556/73 | SCAL -6.0 | SCAL 70% |
| 10:00 | Weber St (3-0/98) | 333/225 | UC Davis (1-2/201) | 556/160 | NL | WEB 72% |
| 10:15 | Wyoming (3-1/57) | 583/60 | BYU (2-1/67) | 556/66 | BYU -21.5 | BYU 57% |
| 10:30 | Utah (2-1/44) | 556/62 | Arizona St (1-2/92) | 667/13 | UTAH -15.5 | UTAH 84% |
| 10:30 | Stanford (1-1/83) | 667/27 | Washington (3-0/19) | 375/99 | WASH -13.5 | WASH 86% |
| 10:30 | W Michigan (1-2/129) | 556/64 | San Jose St (1-1/124) | 400/105 | SJST -7.0 | SJST 61% |
